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re: Why miss the last free throw on purpose?
Posted on 4/6/10 at 8:10 am to Palm Beach Tiger
Posted on 4/6/10 at 8:10 am to Palm Beach Tiger
I thought. which is why i was wondering why soph even brought that up.
but im not positive if they had others on the line or not.
but im not positive if they had others on the line or not.
1
Posted on 4/6/10 at 8:13 am to bbap
You're leaving out the concept of expected value, which is the result times the odds that it occurs.
Let's just say, for argument's sake, that the success rate of a 60 foot heave is 10%. The expected points in that scenario is .1*3, or .3 points. Similarly, let's say that a 25 foot shot goes in 25% of the time. That means that the expected points are .25*3, or .75 points. In other words, buy making the free throw, you're more than doubling your opponent's opportunity to have a successful outcome, which in this case would have been overtime, which gives you multiple chances NOT to win.
Add to this that by missing the freethrow, you're REDUCING the chances of a heave-ho from occurring. Say, for example, that you have only a 25% chance of rebounding the missed free throw. Then that makes the heave-ho's expected points .75*.1*3, or .225 expected points, which is gives your opponent less than a third of the chances of being successful in that situation.
Let's just say, for argument's sake, that the success rate of a 60 foot heave is 10%. The expected points in that scenario is .1*3, or .3 points. Similarly, let's say that a 25 foot shot goes in 25% of the time. That means that the expected points are .25*3, or .75 points. In other words, buy making the free throw, you're more than doubling your opponent's opportunity to have a successful outcome, which in this case would have been overtime, which gives you multiple chances NOT to win.
Add to this that by missing the freethrow, you're REDUCING the chances of a heave-ho from occurring. Say, for example, that you have only a 25% chance of rebounding the missed free throw. Then that makes the heave-ho's expected points .75*.1*3, or .225 expected points, which is gives your opponent less than a third of the chances of being successful in that situation.
Posted on 4/6/10 at 8:15 am to bbap
quote:
I thought. which is why i was wondering why soph even brought that up.
but im not positive if they had others on the line or not.
I think they only had BZ at the line, but some other guys on that side of the court to slow down the advancement of the ball. I personally do not think it was a bad call.
Posted on 4/6/10 at 8:17 am to Sophandros
quote:
Similarly, let's say that a 25 foot shot goes in 25% of the time.
so you're just assuming they complete the 3 quarters court pass? how convenient.
Posted on 4/6/10 at 8:17 am to Sophandros
quote:
Say, for example, that you have only a 25% chance of rebounding the missed free throw.
more like 1% if no one is there to rebound.
Posted on 4/6/10 at 8:21 am to Sophandros
quote:
A 60 foot shot has a smaller chance of going in than a 25-30 foot shot does, which makes the decision the correct one, percentage wise.
You need to realize that it was a 45 foot shot, not a 60 foot shot. And assuming that Butler would get a 25-30 foot shot in that situation is just foolish. They probably get the EXACT same shot that they got except it would be to tie and not to win.
There is no justification for missing the 2nd free throw on purpose. It was the wrong decision.
Posted on 4/6/10 at 8:22 am to Bullethead88
im going to have to agree. no way they should have missed on purpose. would have been awesome had the heave gone in.
Posted on 4/6/10 at 8:24 am to bbap
another consideration is there is a really good chance that Zoubek would have missed anyway....... he shoots a pretty bad percentage doesn't he. With Duke's defense ready to defend a last gasp effort to run up the court without any sort of play, they had an advantage.
Posted on 4/6/10 at 8:25 am to Palm Beach Tiger
quote:
another consideration is there is a really good chance that Zoubek would have missed anyway....... he shoots a pretty bad percentage doesn't he. With Duke's defense ready to defend a last gasp effort to run up the court without any sort of play, they had an advantage.
if he misses on accident then so be it. not sure exactly what you mean by they had an advantage.
Posted on 4/6/10 at 8:26 am to bbap
quote:
so you're just assuming they complete the 3 quarters court pass? how convenient.
That still has a higher chance of converting than a three quarters court shot...
Bottom line is that if you throw in all of the variables, it was the correct decision.
Posted on 4/6/10 at 8:27 am to Sophandros
quote:
That still has a higher chance of converting than a three quarters court shot...
Bottom line is that if you throw in all of the variables, it was the correct decision.
3 quarters court short? did you watch the game? its not like there was 1 second on the clock.
bottom line is that if you throw in all of the variables, it was the incorrect decision.
Posted on 4/6/10 at 8:28 am to Bullethead88
quote:
You need to realize that it was a 45 foot shot, not a 60 foot shot. And assuming that Butler would get a 25-30 foot shot in that situation is just foolish. They probably get the EXACT same shot that they got except it would be to tie and not to win.
No, they don't. They can set a screen and get a much better look. Again, if you look at all of the odds involved, Duke made the correct decision when you look at it, even if it only gives them an edge of less than 5%.
Posted on 4/6/10 at 8:28 am to Sophandros
It wasn't a 3-quarter court shot. He shot the ball from about 5 feet past halfcourt.
Posted on 4/6/10 at 8:29 am to Sophandros
quote:
Again, if you look at all of the odds involved,
what odds? the ones i already pointed out the obvious flaws to you?
Posted on 4/6/10 at 8:30 am to bbap
quote:
not sure exactly what you mean by they had an advantage.
If Zoubek makes the free throw, Butler has to inbound and therefor can run a play. When he misses, Butler has to get the rebound, gather the ball, and then push it up the court all with the clock going. There was no time to call a play, they just had to do what they did. If Duke KNOWS that is what they will have to do, they have an advantage by defending for that.
Posted on 4/6/10 at 8:31 am to Sophandros
quote:
No, they don't. They can set a screen and get a much better look.
Teams NEVER get a good shot in that situation. They always end up passing to a guard in the back court running horizontally and he shoots a 40 footer on the run. That happens most of the time even WHEN they have just called a timeout.
quote:
Again, if you look at all of the odds involved, Duke made the correct decision when you look at it, even if it only gives them an edge of less than 5%.
No they didn't. You are making a terrible assumption that they would have gotten a good look off of the inbound play. Turn on the TV right now. Every analyst they have had on is saying it is the wrong decision. And all of these analysts are former players and coaches. Coach K is an outstanding coach, but he is not perfect.
Posted on 4/6/10 at 8:37 am to Bullethead88
I think it was the wrong decision too
if they make the free throw then time stops and Butler runs a set play to get a desperation 3 point shot... to tie
if they miss it then Butler gets it and tries a desperation 3 point shot... but to win
I can see people arguing you don't let time stop and Butler run a play of some sort but Duke had size over these guys and would have a better shot of preventing even a successful attempt being made... or barring that foul before they can make an attempt (in this case they get 2 free throws for a 3 point deficit... Duke wins no matter what)
Judgment call without a definitively right answer... but I see more ways you win and prevent Butler from even having a chance if you make the free throw
if they make the free throw then time stops and Butler runs a set play to get a desperation 3 point shot... to tie
if they miss it then Butler gets it and tries a desperation 3 point shot... but to win
I can see people arguing you don't let time stop and Butler run a play of some sort but Duke had size over these guys and would have a better shot of preventing even a successful attempt being made... or barring that foul before they can make an attempt (in this case they get 2 free throws for a 3 point deficit... Duke wins no matter what)
Judgment call without a definitively right answer... but I see more ways you win and prevent Butler from even having a chance if you make the free throw
Posted on 4/6/10 at 8:59 am to molsusports
You need to ignore the outcome and examine the decision making process when analyzing this.
The thought process is this:
-more time runs off the clock
-Butler has no time for a set play
-Butler would have a tougher shot (BTW, it is not expected that they would get that far up court in that situation...)
-Butler may not have the opportunity to take the shot if you somehow get the rebound
When you take those things into consideration, it was the correct decision. Hell, if the shot had gone in, I would still defend it as the correct decision. And if he made the free throw an they lost in overtime, then you guys would be screaming that they should have missed on purpose...
In decision analysis, what matters is getting the correct PROCESS instead of focusing on the OUTCOME. You can have a good process and a bad outcome, just as you can have a bad process and a good outcome. But when you play the percentages, over time, you will be successful more often than not by going by the better process, and in this case, missing the free throw was the best process.
The thought process is this:
-more time runs off the clock
-Butler has no time for a set play
-Butler would have a tougher shot (BTW, it is not expected that they would get that far up court in that situation...)
-Butler may not have the opportunity to take the shot if you somehow get the rebound
When you take those things into consideration, it was the correct decision. Hell, if the shot had gone in, I would still defend it as the correct decision. And if he made the free throw an they lost in overtime, then you guys would be screaming that they should have missed on purpose...
In decision analysis, what matters is getting the correct PROCESS instead of focusing on the OUTCOME. You can have a good process and a bad outcome, just as you can have a bad process and a good outcome. But when you play the percentages, over time, you will be successful more often than not by going by the better process, and in this case, missing the free throw was the best process.
This post was edited on 4/6/10 at 9:00 am
Posted on 4/6/10 at 9:02 am to Sophandros
Anyone who argues against the choice to miss is already ignoring the outcome and debating the decision making process
The biggest single difference is if you make it then you pretty much can't lose... if you miss it then you can lose
The biggest single difference is if you make it then you pretty much can't lose... if you miss it then you can lose
Posted on 4/6/10 at 9:13 am to molsusports
quote:
The biggest single difference is if you make it then you pretty much can't lose
You can lose in overtime if you make it, and one could argue that you have a better chance of losing in OT than you do of them making the shot to try to beat you in regulation.
This post was edited on 4/6/10 at 9:14 am
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