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re: What is a scenario(s) that keeps 13-0 Wisconsin out of the playoff?
Posted on 11/8/17 at 2:22 pm to Tiger Prawn
Posted on 11/8/17 at 2:22 pm to Tiger Prawn
quote:
ND doesn't control their own destiny.
Yes, they do.
They have a 20-point ROAD win against a 9-win (at least) Michigan State team that could end up in the Big Ten Championship Game.
They have a 35-point win against a Southern Cal team that will likely win 10 games and end up in the Pac 12 Championship Game.
They have a 21-point win against an NC State team that could finish 9-3.
They'd have to go on the road and beat a Miami team that will likely finish 10-2 and in the top 10. They'd have to go on the road and beat a Stanford team that will likely finish with 7 or 8 wins.
Even some of their mediocre wins (Boston College, Wake Forest) are against teams who will win 6 or 7 games and make bowls. You can likely add Navy to that list in a couple of weeks.
The committee talked big about how impressive Ohio State's top 10 wins on the road were in their room last season. Notre Dame will have gone on the road multiple times and won against good teams, and they have done it (so far) in dominating fashion.
Despite all that, we're going to punish them for losing by 1 point to the #1 team in the nation? If so, that's absolutely ridiculous. I liken it to someone bashing LeBron James because of his losing record in the NBA Finals. Making it should count more than not making it. Playing a difficult schedule and competing in those games shouldn't be a huge red flag on their resume just because they lost one of them.
This post was edited on 11/8/17 at 2:33 pm
1
Posted on 11/8/17 at 2:24 pm to Chucktown_Badger
quote:
What exactly would Clemson's awesome resume consist of?
Nine wins against Power 5 teams that will make bowl games.
Posted on 11/8/17 at 2:27 pm to slackster
quote:
If you lose to Alabama or if you lose to South Florida, I'm not really going to take a ton a way from you, but beating those teams is a big difference.
You do see how these things are mutually exclusive from a logic standpoint, yes?
I saw this posted on the Badger board, but it's true...There are some loose guidelines....like SOS matters if it’s Wisconsin, but not if its Alabama. A bad loss matters if it’s not a helmet school, but if it's a big boy we can overlook it....a conference championship matters if Ohio St wins it, but does not if they don’t, etc, etc...
This post was edited on 11/8/17 at 2:31 pm
Posted on 11/8/17 at 2:33 pm to BayouBengals03
Kent State W 2-7
Auburn W 7-2
UL W 5-4
BC W 5-4
VT W 7-2
WF W 5-4
Syracuse L 4-5
GT W 4-4
NCST W 6-3
FSU 3-5
Citadel 5-4
USCe 6-3
I'm not trying to knock the schedule. But is 9 Bowl teams misleading when it's a bunch of teams fighting their asses off to get 6 wins?
Auburn W 7-2
UL W 5-4
BC W 5-4
VT W 7-2
WF W 5-4
Syracuse L 4-5
GT W 4-4
NCST W 6-3
FSU 3-5
Citadel 5-4
USCe 6-3
I'm not trying to knock the schedule. But is 9 Bowl teams misleading when it's a bunch of teams fighting their asses off to get 6 wins?
Posted on 11/8/17 at 2:37 pm to ReauxlTide222
quote:
But is 9 Bowl teams misleading when it's a bunch of teams fighting their asses off to get 6 wins?
5 of those teams (Auburn, Va Tech, NC State, South Carolina, Miami) will win at least 8 games.
Every team obviously can't win 8 or 9 games. That's just how it works. I'm not trying to mislead anyone.
The point is that Clemson is playing games on a week in and week out basis against teams that are at least somewhat decent, and they're going to accumulate some good to very good wins on top of that.
This post was edited on 11/8/17 at 2:39 pm
Posted on 11/8/17 at 2:37 pm to Chucktown_Badger
I completely agree with you on this bad loss thing. I get that people will say Clemson's QB was out, but it seems like you can justify a mulligan however you want then. Where does this stop?
On the subject of the system being rigged for the big boys, I didn't have a big problem with OSU getting in last year. But, I have a hard time believing a Wisconsin or Michigan State would have gotten in without a conference title.
On the subject of the system being rigged for the big boys, I didn't have a big problem with OSU getting in last year. But, I have a hard time believing a Wisconsin or Michigan State would have gotten in without a conference title.
This post was edited on 11/8/17 at 2:38 pm
Posted on 11/8/17 at 2:50 pm to BayouBengals03
quote:
The point is that Clemson is playing games on a week in and week out basis against teams that are at least somewhat decent, and they're going to accumulate some good to very good wins on top of that.
As the last couple games are played out, you're going to be able to say pretty much the same thing about UW, with Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota (admittedly, they're terrible and should be put down), and the B1GCG against OSU or PSU (or Michigan or MSU). And potentially UW won't have that glaring 1 in the loss column.
This post was edited on 11/8/17 at 2:51 pm
Posted on 11/8/17 at 2:51 pm to Chucktown_Badger
quote:
You do see how these things are mutually exclusive from a logic standpoint, yes?
It's not a zero sum game though, which is the reason why Clemson is ahead of Wisconsin in most of the computer polls, for example. There is a threshold where really good wins trump losses to mediocre teams.
Posted on 11/8/17 at 2:52 pm to BayouBengals03
Alabama will probably hit 9 bowl teams as well. And their schedule is a joke.
I know you're not misleading anyone. I'm just not sure if I value Clemson's schedule as much you are.
I know you're not misleading anyone. I'm just not sure if I value Clemson's schedule as much you are.
Posted on 11/8/17 at 2:54 pm to Chucktown_Badger
quote:
As the last couple games are played out, you're going to be able to say pretty much the same thing about UW, with Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota (admittedly, they're terrible and should be put down), and the B1GCG against OSU or PSU (or Michigan or MSU)
That's one-third of the season
Also, Wisconsin's three best wins in the regular season (Northwestern, Iowa, Michigan) will all be at home. Again, that's something I believe the committee will look at. Wisconsin won't have played a road game against a bowl eligible team all season. That's pathetic.
Their first test away from home all season will be in the Big Ten Championship Game.
Posted on 11/8/17 at 2:56 pm to ReauxlTide222
quote:
Alabama will probably hit 9 bowl teams as well. And their schedule is a joke.
Alabama will hit 5 bowl eligible POWER 5 teams. Maybe 6 if you are generous and assume Ole Miss or Vanderbilt will make a bowl game.
Posted on 11/8/17 at 3:03 pm to BayouBengals03
quote:
Also, Wisconsin's three best wins in the regular season (Northwestern, Iowa, Michigan) will all be at home. Again, that's something I believe the committee will look at. Wisconsin won't have played a road game against a bowl eligible team all season. That's pathetic.
I hear you, but UW didn't set their conf schedule this year. The non-conf road trip to BYU sucked because they decided to have their worst season in memory this year. I also wouldn't say their first test away from home will be the B1G championship, unless you want to ding the Oklahoma's and Clemson's of the world for losing to those types of teams.
I can guarantee you, if we were Alabama and they had the schedule and results, the tide would be a solid #1 and everyone would be talking about "what more are they supposed to do besides beat the teams put in front of them?!"
This post was edited on 11/8/17 at 3:05 pm
Posted on 11/8/17 at 3:07 pm to Chucktown_Badger
I'm not one of the people attacking Wisconsin for their OOC schedule. People saying they "didn't even try" are stupid. BYU is normally a good team, and they went on the road to play them.
It's not their fault that BYU is terrible, but honestly, that doesn't matter. Your schedule is your schedule.
It's not their fault that BYU is terrible, but honestly, that doesn't matter. Your schedule is your schedule.
Posted on 11/8/17 at 3:08 pm to Chucktown_Badger
quote:
I can guarantee you, if we were Alabama and they had the schedule and results, the tide would be a solid #1 and everyone would be talking about "what more are they supposed to do besides beat the teams put in front of them?!"
Maybe, but Alabama has played a crap schedule too, and they're #2 because they've dismantled teams along the way.
You can't play a crappy schedule, even if it's out of your control, AND put up middling results against those teams.
Posted on 11/8/17 at 3:10 pm to BayouBengals03
If Wiconsin and Bama finish as unbeaten conference champions, they're in. That's 2 spots. If Georgia's only loss is a close game vs Bama in the SECCG then they're likely getting in ahead of ND thanks to beating the Irish on the road.
So ND would need to be picked above 12-1 Oklahoma (who has double digit wins on the road vs Ohio State and Oklahoma State, plus a win vs TCU and the Big 12 title game) and also ahead of 12-1 Clemson (who has victories over common oppnents BC, NC St, Wake, and possibly Miami in the title game...along with a win over top 10 Auburn).
Not having a conference title game is going to hurt ND because while they're off on championship week, all the other playoff contenders will have a chance to make one last impression on the CFP committee in a big game. See 2014 when the Big 12 didn't have a championship game and TCU was #3 in CFP going into the conference championship weekend and ended up being passed up by both Florida State and Ohio State after they won their conference title games.
So ND would need to be picked above 12-1 Oklahoma (who has double digit wins on the road vs Ohio State and Oklahoma State, plus a win vs TCU and the Big 12 title game) and also ahead of 12-1 Clemson (who has victories over common oppnents BC, NC St, Wake, and possibly Miami in the title game...along with a win over top 10 Auburn).
Not having a conference title game is going to hurt ND because while they're off on championship week, all the other playoff contenders will have a chance to make one last impression on the CFP committee in a big game. See 2014 when the Big 12 didn't have a championship game and TCU was #3 in CFP going into the conference championship weekend and ended up being passed up by both Florida State and Ohio State after they won their conference title games.
Posted on 11/8/17 at 3:12 pm to BayouBengals03
I can’t believe so many people are buying the committee’s bs and actually think an undefeated big 10 champ would ever be left out of the playoff. That’s why the committee was created.
Posted on 11/8/17 at 3:12 pm to BayouBengals03
quote:I'm also assuming a DF led FSU team nuts up and reaches 6 wins
Alabama will hit 5 bowl eligible POWER 5 teams. Maybe 6 if you are generous and assume Ole Miss or Vanderbilt will make a bowl game.
Posted on 11/8/17 at 3:13 pm to BayouBengals03
quote:
I'm not one of the people attacking Wisconsin for their OOC schedule. People saying they "didn't even try" are stupid. BYU is normally a good team, and they went on the road to play them.
It was frustrating last night...I'm a huge Herbstreit fan, but he said that UW doesn't really swing big out of conference, ignoring the fact that we played LSU last year, Alabama the year before, and LSU the year before that. Also recently played USF and Arizona State, and have upcoming games OOC against BYU and USF again, Notre Dame (x2), Syracuse, Hawaii, and Virginia Tech (which was supposed to be played a couple years ago and got pushed).
That future OOC schedule may end up being awesome or shitty, but when they're scheduled so far out it's a roll of the dice.
ETA: This has been a remarkably level-headed and pleasant thread. And virtually everything is going to change by Sunday
This post was edited on 11/8/17 at 3:18 pm
Posted on 11/8/17 at 3:13 pm to slackster
Kirby Hocutt was on The Russillo Show today, and said that they don't view Alabama's win over Florida State in Week 1 the same as someone else beating Florida State in Week 9.
They take into account injuries and the fact that FSU had their starting quarterback at that point in the season.
Again, this isn't nearly as simple as strength of schedules and conference championships like some people are making it out to be. These are humans in a room who view a lot of things and try to dive into every single detail to come up with their top 4.
They take into account injuries and the fact that FSU had their starting quarterback at that point in the season.
Again, this isn't nearly as simple as strength of schedules and conference championships like some people are making it out to be. These are humans in a room who view a lot of things and try to dive into every single detail to come up with their top 4.
Posted on 11/8/17 at 3:14 pm to ReauxlTide222
quote:
I'm also assuming a DF led FSU team nuts up and reaches 6 wins
Well, I wasn't counting FSU for Clemson. So make that 10.
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