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Message
Weekly PGA Thread - Honda Classic at PGA National (Champion Course)
Posted on 2/22/16 at 7:29 am
Posted on 2/22/16 at 7:29 am
Another star-studded event, also, I put in two futures...
Zero Majors for Spieth in 2016 (-120)
Zero Majors for Rory in 2016 (-160)
Love both players but both of these lines should be more than -200. Good discussion while we wait for Thursday!
ETA - Besides Augusta the other major venues this year are Oakmont, Royal Troon and Baltusrol.
Zero Majors for Spieth in 2016 (-120)
Zero Majors for Rory in 2016 (-160)
Love both players but both of these lines should be more than -200. Good discussion while we wait for Thursday!
ETA - Besides Augusta the other major venues this year are Oakmont, Royal Troon and Baltusrol.
This post was edited on 2/22/16 at 8:49 am
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Posted on 2/22/16 at 8:25 am to ChemE in the OP
quote:
Zero Majors for Spieth in 2016 (-120) Zero Majors for Rory in 2016 (-160)
Not saying your crystal ball doesn't work but a man could go broke betting against those two stallions.
Posted on 2/22/16 at 8:36 am to Rhino5
I just see the major fields as being very deep this year with 30-40 guys that could win each event. To say that there's a 50/50 chance each of these guys wins a major seems high. Not to mention each wager is mutually exclusive per event so if Rory were to get hot and win two majors the other wager is greatly influenced.
Posted on 2/22/16 at 8:38 am to ChemE in the OP
Posted on 2/22/16 at 9:06 am to ChemE in the OP
Hopefully El Nino will do better this week.
I'm ready for the Bear trap.
I'm ready for the Bear trap.
Posted on 2/22/16 at 9:24 am to ChemE in the OP
quote:
Zero Majors for Rory in 2016 (-160)
That finish was very disappointing, but he's still a 4 time major winner who has racked up a few top 10s already this year. His game isn't far from being ready, and come summer time he could really heat up.
Posted on 2/22/16 at 9:36 am to Choupique19
I certainly think he has a 10-15% chance of winning a major this year. But at -160 the implied odds are 38.4% chance he wins a major, and that number is high.
And at -120 the implied odds for Spieth winning a major are 45.4% which also seems a bit high, IMO.
And at -120 the implied odds for Spieth winning a major are 45.4% which also seems a bit high, IMO.
This post was edited on 2/22/16 at 9:40 am
Posted on 2/22/16 at 10:15 am to ChemE in the OP
Posted on 2/22/16 at 10:16 am to ChemE in the OP
If one of them wins a major, you essentially lose, though.
Posted on 2/22/16 at 10:24 am to BayouBengals03
I could watch Poulter screw up all day.
Spieth gonna win a major every year for the next decade
Spieth gonna win a major every year for the next decade
Posted on 2/22/16 at 10:27 am to ReauxlTide222
quote:
I could watch Poulter screw up all day.
IWLT
Posted on 2/22/16 at 10:52 am to BayouBengals03
Regardless, you agree the implied odds are high, right? That's how these positions have to be viewed.
Posted on 2/22/16 at 11:21 am to ChemE in the OP
Do you mind explaining this model a little bit? Specifically the "Mike, Skybet, and Betfair" columns.
Posted on 2/22/16 at 11:28 am to ChemE in the OP
I don't think Spieth wins a major, unless it's the Masters. I most definitely agree his odds are high.
Not so sure about Rory's, to be honest. They are high, but I don't think his should be over 200 like you said.
Not so sure about Rory's, to be honest. They are high, but I don't think his should be over 200 like you said.
Posted on 2/22/16 at 11:43 am to ChemE in the OP
gotta lovee Rory this week considering course history.
Posted on 2/22/16 at 12:23 pm to CBandits82
All or nothing for Rory here. A few WD and MCs sprinkled in with top finishes.
Posted on 2/22/16 at 12:26 pm to ChemE in the OP
I think Rory's odds are higher than 10-15%. I'd say there's a 10-15% for each major. Spieth's odds are about right, but I don't like what you got for Rory. Saying neither Spieth or Rory will win a major just seems like a very risky bet to me.
Posted on 2/22/16 at 12:29 pm to Al Dente
quote:
Do you mind explaining this model a little bit? Specifically the "Mike, Skybet, and Betfair" columns.
Those are current "odds to win" at three different books. So if that number is 15, it's currently 15 to 1.
So if you bet $100 on Rory at SkyBet, and he won, you'd net $650. Matchups will be created off similarly priced players as well.
Posted on 2/22/16 at 12:39 pm to ChemE in the OP
Just read that Tiger isn't doing well at all, physically
Posted on 2/22/16 at 1:46 pm to ReauxlTide222
Saw the video - feel almost bad / sorry for him if it is true:
Tiger Woods in Pain?
Tiger Woods in Pain?
This post was edited on 2/22/16 at 1:47 pm
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