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re: Week 3 NFL Betting Thread

Posted on 9/24/12 at 8:41 pm to
Posted by HoLeInOnEr05
Middle of the fairway
Member since Aug 2011
16906 posts
Posted on 9/24/12 at 8:41 pm to
I don't fricking understand that system at all!
Posted by dcrews
Houston, TX
Member since Feb 2011
32130 posts
Posted on 9/24/12 at 8:42 pm to
So theoretically, assuming Seattle goes into the half winning 7-0, the 2nd half numbers should be:

Green Bay -9.5 and a total of 38.5 (assuming a final total of 45.5 before kickoff and line of GB -2.5 before kickoff)

Is that correct?
Posted by dcrews
Houston, TX
Member since Feb 2011
32130 posts
Posted on 9/24/12 at 8:42 pm to
it makes sense. I had to read it a few times, and even then I didn't understand the totals part of it until just now.
Posted by DaBeerz
Member since Sep 2004
18291 posts
Posted on 9/24/12 at 8:43 pm to




Looks like under will be the play for 2nd half... Worked last night for over in the pats game.
Posted by imAMAZING
Member since Sep 2008
6314 posts
Posted on 9/24/12 at 8:44 pm to
Live wagering green bay +3
Posted by HoLeInOnEr05
Middle of the fairway
Member since Aug 2011
16906 posts
Posted on 9/24/12 at 8:44 pm to
This post was edited on 9/24/12 at 8:46 pm
Posted by DaBeerz
Member since Sep 2004
18291 posts
Posted on 9/24/12 at 8:46 pm to
Think it went 5-3 yesterday for NFL... Lions rallied to prevent 6-3
Posted by dcrews
Houston, TX
Member since Feb 2011
32130 posts
Posted on 9/24/12 at 8:50 pm to
Basically you will most likely be taking the under for the 2nd half and depending on the 2nd half line, Seattle as well.

ETA: If the total score for both teams for the 1st half PLUS the new 2nd half total is UNDER the original total, take the UNDER. If the 1st half total for both teams PLUS the new 2nd half total is OVER the original total, take the OVER. All that assuming the original total MINUS the 1st half total (for both teams) is 10 points different than the new 2nd half total put out by the books.




This post was edited on 9/24/12 at 8:54 pm
Posted by DaBeerz
Member since Sep 2004
18291 posts
Posted on 9/24/12 at 8:53 pm to
Seattle most likely wont have a >10 point differential... I'm guessing it will just be a play on the under
Posted by SDVTiger
Cabo San Lucas
Member since Nov 2011
93049 posts
Posted on 9/24/12 at 8:53 pm to
Very confusing system

The Denver example if they were down by 10 at half and its a pick em your getting Denver +10 for the game

I just go off the eye test and new line value
Posted by HoLeInOnEr05
Middle of the fairway
Member since Aug 2011
16906 posts
Posted on 9/24/12 at 8:54 pm to
10 point differential of what?
Posted by dcrews
Houston, TX
Member since Feb 2011
32130 posts
Posted on 9/24/12 at 8:54 pm to
quote:

Seattle most likely wont have a >10 point differential... I'm guessing it will just be a play on the under


I agree. I'm just glad I finally understand how it works.
Posted by bamafan425
Jackson's Hole
Member since Jan 2009
25638 posts
Posted on 9/24/12 at 8:54 pm to
The closing line for the game.
Posted by HoLeInOnEr05
Middle of the fairway
Member since Aug 2011
16906 posts
Posted on 9/24/12 at 8:55 pm to
The O/U for the 2H better be set at about 20. That Seattle defense is hungry!
Posted by dcrews
Houston, TX
Member since Feb 2011
32130 posts
Posted on 9/24/12 at 8:56 pm to
if it's 20, then the system says take the UNDER, because theoretically the total for the 2nd half should be 38.5 with a 7-0 score. 38.5 minus 20 (new 2H total) is 18.5, which is greater than 10.

Take the under should that be the case.


ETA: I'm pretty confident that's how it works. Take it FWIW unless someone else confirms that's right.
This post was edited on 9/24/12 at 9:00 pm
Posted by DaBeerz
Member since Sep 2004
18291 posts
Posted on 9/24/12 at 8:59 pm to
Yeah it's pretty easy when you do the math... It's just a few subtractions. I'll post the math when porky on covers does
Posted by SDVTiger
Cabo San Lucas
Member since Nov 2011
93049 posts
Posted on 9/24/12 at 9:00 pm to
So you think they are going to score less than 27pts total for the game?
Posted by dcrews
Houston, TX
Member since Feb 2011
32130 posts
Posted on 9/24/12 at 9:01 pm to
well considering they've only scored 7 in one half of play, that result isn't implausible.
Posted by HoLeInOnEr05
Middle of the fairway
Member since Aug 2011
16906 posts
Posted on 9/24/12 at 9:01 pm to
I'm loving my U53 ... now if Seattle can just hold on
Posted by dcrews
Houston, TX
Member since Feb 2011
32130 posts
Posted on 9/24/12 at 9:02 pm to
Total is 21. Ergo via the system, the under is the play. And no play on on the line as it's only a -6.5 point diff for Green bay (-3 for GB 2nd half)


quote:

Full Game odds were GB -2.5 and 45.5
At the half, Seattle 7-0
2H lines should be GB -9.5 and 38.5
2H lines are GB -3 and 21
Take Under 21


Again, take that fwiw. Anyone care to confirm?





This post was edited on 9/24/12 at 9:07 pm
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