re: Unofficial - 2022 The Championships, Wimbledon Thread.

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watch them both lose tomorrow

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Forgot I played this…

Gonna do a tl;dr random thoughts post. Skip if you aren't into betting.

Novak is now in the -200 range to win the tourney, which may be a bit too much but I damn sure wouldn't recommend betting against him. I saw the highlights against the Kokk and he already looks to be in championship form.

I'm seeing various prices on Swiatek ranging from +125 to +175, which I still disagree with, but she may not face a decent player until the 4th round or the quarters, so we won't get a sense of whether or not that price is right until then.

Speaking of highlights, it's a damn joke how difficult it is to find them for slams. Rights issues, I know, but it's still bullshite. It would make more sense imo to have as much content available as possible if you want the sport to grow. Not to mention it's a pain in the arse for betting if you can't at least get a glimpse of the players.

Tommy Paul is one of the top Americans, ranked 32nd in the world, playing great on all surfaces, just won his first two matches in straights, and you can't find any highlights of him. I'm assuming you can replay entire matches on ESPN+, but I'm not spending 2 hours doing that. And if you're thinking, "well he's American and its a UK tourney", almost all of the same above applies to Cam Norrie and he's ranked 12th.

I may have mentioned this a long while back, but my approach to tennis betting for individual matches is generally more about fading players instead of backing. The reason being that no one on earth can predict when athletes will redline and play out of their minds, but there's probably a dozen reasons that players can play below 100%. Of course this is known to bookmakers and bettors, but it's not always accounted for accurately.

There's also the "name" player vs. the unknown player factor. The flashier guys always get more respect in the market, and it almost never makes sense to bet on them, especially the ones where their results don't match their talent level or ability to make highlight-reel shots.

Shapovalov fits this description perfectly and I'm always looking for good spots to fade him. When fading him I prefer counter-puncher types and guys who get a lot of balls back and frustrate him into errors. Amazingly this has been the blueprint for beating Shapo ever since he arrived on tour and it seems like he hasn't changed anything.

Not to mention Nakashima's raw grass ELO is 1640 and Shapo's is 1561. I'm aware of the dangers of using ELO for betting, so I only use it as a starting point in my research. Coincidentally these players are only separated by less than 1 point in overall ELO, and that's due to Shapo being much better on clay.

Generally when a player has a better ELO and he's the underdog there's a reason for it. In this case I feel it's mostly about name recognition and maybe partly due to Shapo's slam experience. Either way I can't pass up +135 on Nakashima.

Another match where the ELOs don't line up with the odds is Tsitsipas vs. Jordan Thompson. Shitpants is only 10 points better in raw grass ELO, and you can still get Thompson at +350 or better. I found a +450 yesterday and jumped on it. This feels like one of those matches where it's close but Shitsi pulls it out, so the set or game handicap may be a better play, but I almost always have something on the ML.

In other matches, I know Diego's itching to lose and get back to his favorite surface, but Liam Broady might be a little too weak to knock him off.

I'm curious to see how Kyrgios looks after that ugly scoreline vs. Jubb (who?) in the 1st round. Krajinovic has some solid grass wins and his only grass loss this year is to Berrettini.

Cressy vs. Sock should be a lot of fun. If you don't know Cressy, his style is a throwback to the 80's with a lot of serve & volley and he basically hits two 1st serves all the time. And Sock is the best doubles player in the world so he's familiar with guys being at the net.

This 2nd Quarter is intriguing in the sense that any of the 8 players could make the semis and it wouldn't really be a surprise. They have Stevie J at 18/1 and he has the most grass experience of the bunch. I'm not a fan of Norrie's game on the grass, but he's a super annoying guy to face on any surface.



I'm with you guys on Otte too. I played this pre-tourney so now it's basically Otte +700 vs. Alcaraz, but I may even add more on the ML tomorrow.

Welp looks like RBA bowed out so there goes your 7500

I spoke about it earlier in the thread. There's just no penalty for it. These guys know they aren't winning the tournament, especially if they aren't feeling 100%.

Nick completely dismantled Krajinovic, which I did not expect.

Haven't gone through the whole thread, but hopefully this has already been posted. Anyone been keeping up with Usual Maize picks? He seems to be hot & cold at times.

Taking his Bonzi, Cressy, Nadal -2.5 sets, Frtiz, & Kubler picks today.
Added Golubic too

Always cracks me up how Sock just grabs anyone off the street and crushes the best doubles teams in the world. This time it’s Kudla with his 11-29 doubles record.

Shapo goes down and his racquet goes down with him.

That point he lost at 6-6 in the breaker was pathetic but standard for him. Great serve near the T, Nakashima does well just to get it back but it’s a short ball right in Shapo’s wheelhouse, and instead of going crosscourt and following it in, he overcooks it about 8 feet long for no reason.