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Started By
Message
UF line goes to 10
Posted on 12/3/08 at 12:06 pm
Posted on 12/3/08 at 12:06 pm
From 11 yesterday. Obviously, the acton is going to Alabama betters, who, in my opinion, are morons. There are serious mismatches, most notable in the UF WR's vs Bama secondary matchup that will cause Bama's defense to, by the end of the game, not remember what game they're playing.
Also, considering that UF runs the ball the vast majority of the time, I expect Bama's defense to be geard to stop the run most of the time. Their only hope is that Tebow has a horrible passing day.
If the line were 17, I'd still bet Florida, Iron Bowl performance against a demoralized AU team or not.
Also, considering that UF runs the ball the vast majority of the time, I expect Bama's defense to be geard to stop the run most of the time. Their only hope is that Tebow has a horrible passing day.
If the line were 17, I'd still bet Florida, Iron Bowl performance against a demoralized AU team or not.
This post was edited on 12/3/08 at 12:42 pm
4
Posted on 12/3/08 at 12:11 pm to blueboy
Im still undecided which way Im going to go. UF has been playing some of the best all-around ball I have seen in a few years. However, Saban is a beast. Double digits with a ball control offense and a disciplined defense could keep it in the single digits at a minimum.
FWIW I am strongly opposed with calling either side of a bet "morons". I find it to be karmic Russian Roulette
FWIW I am strongly opposed with calling either side of a bet "morons". I find it to be karmic Russian Roulette
Posted on 12/3/08 at 12:12 pm to Dr. 3
Posted on 12/3/08 at 12:15 pm to beauchristopher
I put 2 units on it at 9.5 today. I dont foresee it dipping too much more.
Posted on 12/3/08 at 12:16 pm to blueboy
quote:
If the line were 17, I'd still bet Flrida
Really?
Posted on 12/3/08 at 12:36 pm to LuckyLee
I will usually take any double digit dog in the SEC. I believe Florida is over-hyped right now and Bama is legit. They remind me of the Buckeyes when they won the NC in 03. They do just enough to win EVERY game with a ball control O, a stout D, and good special teams play.
Give me Bama and the points. Might lay a ML bet on em
Give me Bama and the points. Might lay a ML bet on em
Posted on 12/3/08 at 12:38 pm to herbstreit4
quote:
Give me Bama and the points. Might lay a ML bet on em
Its one thing to take 9.5 points but another to do a ML bet on them. Fuuuuck that.
Posted on 12/3/08 at 12:41 pm to SprintFun
Anyone got the point total for the game?
Posted on 12/3/08 at 12:47 pm to Dr. 3
I saw 51. I am very hesitant about the points because I think its either going to be a defensive struggle or an offensive shootout.
Posted on 12/3/08 at 12:49 pm to LuckyLee
quote:
If the line were 17, I'd still bet Flrida
Really?
I think so. Even though I think Bama will be able to move the ball aainst the UF defense at times, they won't be able to score enough and their simple scheme which usually relies on superiorly conditioned athletes, will not be able to dominate by the 4th quarter, as their second half performance throughout the year has shown.
Florida, on the other hand, will punt MAYBE twice all game. UF really has phenominal coaching on that side of the ball. They show so many looks and use so many skill players that even without Harvin, they still have four or five RB's who can smoke any defense. Their WR's are more than a match for Bama's DB's, especially in formations designed to stop the run, forcing man to man.
And they are only going to be better next year, as they lose almost no one.
I think the double digit spread is meant to bait people into betting the dog, and they will all lose. IMO.
Posted on 12/3/08 at 1:22 pm to blueboy
i really thought this line would open at -13.
with the said, i have 3 units on the gators.
with the said, i have 3 units on the gators.
Posted on 12/3/08 at 1:24 pm to 7inLimp
I'm of the school of thinking that florida will do to bama what OU did to Texas Tech. That being said, im not touching this one. 
Posted on 12/3/08 at 1:29 pm to blueboy
i'll let it drop a little more then put 3 units on UF.
Posted on 12/3/08 at 2:58 pm to 7inLimp
quote:
i really thought this line would open at -13.
I had it at 12, but that was before the Harvin injury. If it weren't for that, you probably would have been right. Nevertheless, the oddsmaker don't seem to think Harvin is an absolutely essential factor in UF's offensive success. Most others I had spoken to had it at 6 or 7 before the FSU game
I expect it to go back up to about 11 or down to 8 1/2 before game time, depending on whether there are heavy hitter bets for Florida OR many smaller betts on Bama. The Bama bettors look at the Iron Bowl as "proof" that Bama is "better than people think - a 'blue collar, simple but dominating team,'" but anyone who analyzes the individual matchups (such as the oddsmakers, for example) see what's really going on.
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