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re: Tracking a bet-against the Astros & Marlins every game the rest of the way..
Posted on 5/28/13 at 9:59 pm to LSUAlum2001
Posted on 5/28/13 at 9:59 pm to LSUAlum2001
Updated spreadsheets through tonight's games..
Both Colorado and Tampa Bay score single runs in the 9th to win their games.
The Marlins are killing it: 2-14 since I started this thread.
Both Colorado and Tampa Bay score single runs in the 9th to win their games.
The Marlins are killing it: 2-14 since I started this thread.
1
Posted on 5/28/13 at 10:44 pm to Tiger n Miami AU83
quote:
I have. Many, many, many, many, many.................................................times.
I have run variations of Martigales literally thousands of times. Best streak ever was a 5 bet progression, doubling each bet + an additional amount that grew as the bankroll grew.
Example (no juice to keep it simple):
Bet 1: 50 (target up 50)
Bet 2: 150 (target up 100, already lost 50 on bet 1)
Bet 3: 350 (target up 150)
Bet 4: 750 (target up 200)
Bet 5: 1550 (target up 250)
Went from about $1k to about $65k during one baseball season during my best run.
The thing about any variation of the Martingale is it gives the highest probability of success over the short term, but with a 99.9999999999999% probabilty of busting eventually depending on the progression and beginning bank roll.
Perfect example of gambler's fallacy and a fools gold system since it almost always wins in the beginning.
Can you elaborate a little bit on your progression here. I'm not sure I'm following. Are you doubling those up after you lose? You indicate that you lost Bet 1. Did you lose Bets 2-4 as well? (under your hypo).
Posted on 5/28/13 at 10:46 pm to LSUAlum2001
quote:
Both Colorado and Tampa Bay score single runs in the 9th to win their games.
I love love love when they lose by a single run. That just gives me warm fuzzies all over.
Posted on 5/28/13 at 11:48 pm to bobbyray21
Are you betting -1.5 run lines?
Posted on 5/30/13 at 9:47 pm to LSUAlum2001
frick the Colorado Rockies.
I've never seen a team score 0 runs with the bases loaded and < 2 outs in a series.
They have done it twice tonight in earlier innings to keep the Astros around and now the Stros have put up a 6 spot to take a 7-3 lead after getting down 3-0.
Unclutch hitting for the Rockies:
Monday: 3-18 with RISP. 15 LOB. 3-2 Loss
Tuesday: 3-10 with RISP. 7 LOB. 2-1 Win
Wednesday: 1-8 with RISP. 12 LOB. 6-3 Loss
Thursday: 3-7 with RISP. 7 LOB thru the 5th. Down 7-3.
This series so far: 10-43 with RISP. 41 LOB.
I've never seen a team score 0 runs with the bases loaded and < 2 outs in a series.
They have done it twice tonight in earlier innings to keep the Astros around and now the Stros have put up a 6 spot to take a 7-3 lead after getting down 3-0.
Unclutch hitting for the Rockies:
Monday: 3-18 with RISP. 15 LOB. 3-2 Loss
Tuesday: 3-10 with RISP. 7 LOB. 2-1 Win
Wednesday: 1-8 with RISP. 12 LOB. 6-3 Loss
Thursday: 3-7 with RISP. 7 LOB thru the 5th. Down 7-3.
This series so far: 10-43 with RISP. 41 LOB.
Posted on 6/1/13 at 11:09 pm to LSUAlum2001
Astros have been winning a good bit lately: 4 straight.
I was still up $500 heading into today with LAA -220 pending right now.
I did manage to pull off a massive College Baseball Parlay today. I had rounded my total down to an even number and bet $79 on a 12 team parlay.
Hit it for $2810.
I was still up $500 heading into today with LAA -220 pending right now.
I did manage to pull off a massive College Baseball Parlay today. I had rounded my total down to an even number and bet $79 on a 12 team parlay.
Hit it for $2810.
This post was edited on 6/1/13 at 11:10 pm
Posted on 6/1/13 at 11:12 pm to LSUAlum2001
..and just when I post this. Houston hits a 2 run HR with 2 out in the 7th.
The Angels left them loaded in the bottom of the 6th. Angels and Rockies have sucked with RISP the last 6 games.
The Angels left them loaded in the bottom of the 6th. Angels and Rockies have sucked with RISP the last 6 games.
Posted on 6/2/13 at 6:07 pm to LSUAlum2001
Good thing I hit that massive CBB parlay yesterday.
Miami swept the Mets and the Stros have won 5 straight due to shitty hitting with RISP by Colorado and LAA.
Miami swept the Mets and the Stros have won 5 straight due to shitty hitting with RISP by Colorado and LAA.
Posted on 6/2/13 at 6:09 pm to LSUAlum2001
update? Curious as to how much these last few games have damaged the bankroll
Posted on 6/2/13 at 6:11 pm to fbb
I'll update the spreadsheet in a few.
Miami wasn't too damaging: $450 net loss over 3 days.
LAA falling on their arse hurt.
Miami wasn't too damaging: $450 net loss over 3 days.
LAA falling on their arse hurt.
Posted on 6/2/13 at 6:12 pm to fbb
Yeah I'd be interested in hearing how bobby ray's martingale system is working out right about now. I'm guessing he just didn't bet this streak.
Posted on 6/2/13 at 6:33 pm to JG77056
Spreadsheets are updated.
Any + winnings from betting against the Stros all season to win $100 was wiped out last week. They won 5 straight games as a -200 or greater dog.
Miami seems to be the better of the two, losing only $76 last week; still up $1600+ over the season.
The Mets were coming off a 4 game sweep of the Yankees and the Marlins swept them, and the Angels were 10-2 their previous 12 games before losing the last 3 to Houston.
Any + winnings from betting against the Stros all season to win $100 was wiped out last week. They won 5 straight games as a -200 or greater dog.
Miami seems to be the better of the two, losing only $76 last week; still up $1600+ over the season.
The Mets were coming off a 4 game sweep of the Yankees and the Marlins swept them, and the Angels were 10-2 their previous 12 games before losing the last 3 to Houston.
This post was edited on 6/2/13 at 6:35 pm
Posted on 6/3/13 at 2:12 pm to LSUAlum2001
quote:.
Any + winnings from betting against the Stros all season to win $100 was wiped out last week. They won 5 straight games as a -200 or greater dog
Ouch
Posted on 6/3/13 at 2:14 pm to JG77056
quote:
Yeah I'd be interested in hearing how bobby ray's martingale system is working out right about now. I'm guessing he just didn't bet this streak.
What made you think I was going to do a Martingale? I pretty clearly said I wasnt.
Posted on 6/3/13 at 2:29 pm to LSUAlum2001
quote:
The Mets were coming off a 4 game sweep of the Yankees and the Marlins swept them,
That was surprising.
Posted on 6/9/13 at 11:57 am to LSUAlum2001
I'll be updating the spreadsheet later today.
Took a loss with the Mets losing 2-1 to Miami yesterday. The difference in the game: In 20 innings, Miami was 2-4 with RISP and 10 LOB, whereas the Mets were a whopping 0-19 with RISP and 22 LOB.
Took a loss with the Mets losing 2-1 to Miami yesterday. The difference in the game: In 20 innings, Miami was 2-4 with RISP and 10 LOB, whereas the Mets were a whopping 0-19 with RISP and 22 LOB.
Posted on 6/9/13 at 4:05 pm to LSUAlum2001
Updated..
The Marlins sure love playing the Mets: 8 of their 18 wins have come against these guys. I think it will get ugly for Florida after their 3 game set vs Mil. A 10 game stretch vs St Louis, Arizona and San Francisco.
For the Astros, 7 of their 22 wins have come against the Angels, and they are 4-2 against the Seattle which is their next opponent.
The Marlins sure love playing the Mets: 8 of their 18 wins have come against these guys. I think it will get ugly for Florida after their 3 game set vs Mil. A 10 game stretch vs St Louis, Arizona and San Francisco.
For the Astros, 7 of their 22 wins have come against the Angels, and they are 4-2 against the Seattle which is their next opponent.
This post was edited on 6/9/13 at 4:07 pm
Posted on 8/16/13 at 7:06 am to LSUAlum2001
Bump
Posted on 8/16/13 at 7:09 am to Lombardi44
Nice bump. Been curious to see how this played out
Posted on 8/17/13 at 8:08 am to Lombardi44
again
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