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Started By
Message
re: Tracking a bet-against the Astros & Marlins every game the rest of the way..
Posted on 5/20/13 at 11:06 am to LSUAlum2001
Posted on 5/20/13 at 11:06 am to LSUAlum2001
Well, I'm just saying lines adjust and be careful. 
One season, I tracked about 2500 games. Massive spreadsheet, followed about 15 handicappers through an entire season and tracked everything. Some of the streaks were pretty amazing. One "professional" handicapper lost 18 picks in a row. Mixture of dogs and favorites.
One season, I tracked about 2500 games. Massive spreadsheet, followed about 15 handicappers through an entire season and tracked everything. Some of the streaks were pretty amazing. One "professional" handicapper lost 18 picks in a row. Mixture of dogs and favorites.
2
Posted on 5/20/13 at 11:21 am to Tiger n Miami AU83
AU, how'd you get into sports betting?
Posted on 5/20/13 at 12:27 pm to TheOcean
Did it a little bit in college. Did it a lot a few years after college (and I mean a LOT for a certain period).
Haven't done it much the past few years.
Haven't done it much the past few years.
Posted on 5/20/13 at 12:35 pm to Tiger n Miami AU83
So what does all that mean in layman's terms?
What's it saying about each team?
What's it saying about each team?
Posted on 5/20/13 at 12:36 pm to Tiger n Miami AU83
quote:
They will win 3 in a row and right now
It's probable, but it isn't guaranteed to happen.
If either team wins three in a row, I'm upping my bet on the next game.
Posted on 5/20/13 at 12:37 pm to Tiger n Miami AU83
quote:
One "professional" handicapper lost 18 picks in a row
Sometimes professional sports handicappers are pretty terrible.
Posted on 5/20/13 at 12:37 pm to bobbyray21
quote:
If either team wins three in a row, I'm upping my bet on the next game.
Good ole Martingale system...
Posted on 5/20/13 at 12:40 pm to Prominentwon
quote:
So what does all that mean in layman's terms?
What's it saying about each team?
What do you mean?
Stros and Fish are terrible, but even terrible baseball teams win 2,3,4 in a row throughout the season and laying big wood against can really compound losses fast on a small win streak.
Posted on 5/20/13 at 2:48 pm to Tiger n Miami AU83
..both Houston and Miami have won 3 in a row this season. In fact, Miami won 5 of 8 but that week was still positive overall because Houston was 1-7 over that span. The key is if I can avoid a stretch where both play well. Even in that 5-3 stretch, you were only down $413 with Miami because the games they won were only at -140 average.
Today's Houston line, btw is around -155 vs KC in Houston. Those ridiculous lines over the last 3 series was more of a reflection of their opponents: Texas, Detroit and Pitt, with Detroit and Pitt being on the road.
Today's Houston line, btw is around -155 vs KC in Houston. Those ridiculous lines over the last 3 series was more of a reflection of their opponents: Texas, Detroit and Pitt, with Detroit and Pitt being on the road.
This post was edited on 5/20/13 at 2:49 pm
Posted on 5/21/13 at 11:44 am to LSUAlum2001
Stay the course gentleman. Unbelievable stats for starting pitchers against Miami...
RT @junkstats: 6.1 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 5 K. That's the *median* starting pitching performance against the Marlins this year.
RT @junkstats: 6.1 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 5 K. That's the *median* starting pitching performance against the Marlins this year.
Posted on 5/21/13 at 11:46 am to CWilken21
I updated the spreadsheets thru both Houston and Miami wins last night.
Still up going into tonight.
Still up going into tonight.
Posted on 5/21/13 at 12:18 pm to Tiger n Miami AU83
quote:
Good ole Martingale system.
Not straight martingale.
Posted on 5/21/13 at 12:36 pm to Tiger n Miami AU83
quote:
Good ole Martingale system...
And as stupid as a martingale system is at, say, a roulette table. There are certain sports bets where a martingale, or other progression, can be used rather prudently.
Posted on 5/21/13 at 12:57 pm to bobbyray21
One example:
Bruins/Rangers tonight.
Risk 100 on Rangers-1.5 to win 230
Risk 145.37 on Bruins to win 184.63
Two options:
1) Rangers win by one: You lose 245.37
2) Every other scenario: You win 84.63
Strategy:
Take the five highest scoring teams in the league. Do the above (except start much lower) in all of their games, doubling your bet after they win by one.
Longest streak I see is five.
Just food for thought. I've never actually done this.
Bruins/Rangers tonight.
Risk 100 on Rangers-1.5 to win 230
Risk 145.37 on Bruins to win 184.63
Two options:
1) Rangers win by one: You lose 245.37
2) Every other scenario: You win 84.63
Strategy:
Take the five highest scoring teams in the league. Do the above (except start much lower) in all of their games, doubling your bet after they win by one.
Longest streak I see is five.
Just food for thought. I've never actually done this.
Posted on 5/21/13 at 6:22 pm to bobbyray21
quote:
One example:
Bruins/Rangers tonight.
Risk 100 on Rangers-1.5 to win 230
Risk 145.37 on Bruins to win 184.63
Two options:
1) Rangers win by one: You lose 245.37
2) Every other scenario: You win 84.63
Strategy:
Take the five highest scoring teams in the league. Do the above (except start much lower) in all of their games, doubling your bet after they win by one.
Longest streak I see is five.
Just food for thought. I've never actually done this.
I have. Many, many, many, many, many.................................................times.
I have run variations of Martigales literally thousands of times. Best streak ever was a 5 bet progression, doubling each bet + an additional amount that grew as the bankroll grew.
Example (no juice to keep it simple):
Bet 1: 50 (target up 50)
Bet 2: 150 (target up 100, already lost 50 on bet 1)
Bet 3: 350 (target up 150)
Bet 4: 750 (target up 200)
Bet 5: 1550 (target up 250)
Went from about $1k to about $65k during one baseball season during my best run.
The thing about any variation of the Martingale is it gives the highest probability of success over the short term, but with a 99.9999999999999% probabilty of busting eventually depending on the progression and beginning bank roll.
Perfect example of gambler's fallacy and a fools gold system since it almost always wins in the beginning.
Posted on 5/21/13 at 6:28 pm to bobbyray21
quote:
bobbyray21
That's why I would always bet -1 run lines instead of -1.5, that way you can't lose as long as the team wins.
Posted on 5/25/13 at 3:30 pm to absolute692
Updated through today..
The Stros have turned a corner and have gone 4-4 (1 vs Det, 1 vs Pitt and 2 vs KC) over their last 8. Pitt and KC don't have the offense to take advantage of the Astros' shitty staff.
Miami has protected me going 2-6 over their last 8.
A good weekend by the A's and White Sox will make this week profitable.
The Stros have turned a corner and have gone 4-4 (1 vs Det, 1 vs Pitt and 2 vs KC) over their last 8. Pitt and KC don't have the offense to take advantage of the Astros' shitty staff.
Miami has protected me going 2-6 over their last 8.
A good weekend by the A's and White Sox will make this week profitable.
This post was edited on 5/25/13 at 3:32 pm
Posted on 5/26/13 at 4:38 pm to GABlueDog
Updated spreadsheets..
The last two weeks netted you $490 if you bet to win $100 each game.
Since I started this thread, you would be up right at $1,000 heading into Monday..
The last two weeks netted you $490 if you bet to win $100 each game.
Since I started this thread, you would be up right at $1,000 heading into Monday..
Posted on 5/26/13 at 6:49 pm to LSUAlum2001
Weekend series came at a good time for both for you. 0-6 on the weekend between the two.
Posted on 5/26/13 at 9:40 pm to Tiger n Miami AU83
Yeah. The 4-4 stretch for the Stros reduce my + $ win total to $400 or so.
It's a marathon. Ride out the rough patches to achieve the overall goal.
It's a marathon. Ride out the rough patches to achieve the overall goal.
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