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re: The ATL Thread: Offseason Edition

Posted on 12/19/11 at 8:48 pm to
Posted by OBUDan
Chicago
Member since Aug 2006
40723 posts
Posted on 12/19/11 at 8:48 pm to
I really think Seth Smith is going to be the guy we wind up with.

We'll get the Rocks to chip in a young CF prospect, and maybe we'll throw them an arm or something.

I'm OK with it.

Smith is a better hitter than Prado (though it should be noted in a heavy platoon split). Prado is a better fielder and more versatile, though.

Smith/Diaz (I know, I know) won't excited anyone, but it makes sense. Of course, that is all dependent on Fredi playing Matt against lefties and Smith against righties.

Posted by glb
Atlanta
Member since Sep 2008
1610 posts
Posted on 12/19/11 at 10:59 pm to
quote:

I really think Seth Smith is going to be the guy we wind up with.

We'll get the Rocks to chip in a young CF prospect, and maybe we'll throw them an arm or something.

I'm OK with it.

Smith is a better hitter than Prado (though it should be noted in a heavy platoon split). Prado is a better fielder and more versatile, though.


I just don't see the benefit of trading Prado for Smith. It'd be worse than the D'backs replacing Parra with Kubel.

I'm always skeptical of a player with extreme R/L splits. Smith is awful against Lefties. There's no way I'd rather have Diaz in the lineup over Prado, and Smith really isn't all that much better against Righties than Prado.

The fact that Martin can step in and play a great 3B is so damn valuable to us.

Look at the first 2 months last year before he got hurt. He was hitting just like he had the previous two years. I think Prado is a better hitter than Smith too.


I think Frank has to be bullshitting about trading Prado, and he really just wants to trade JJ. That's my hope anyways because the more I look at it the more I want Martin to stay.
This post was edited on 12/19/11 at 11:01 pm
Posted by SwampDonks
Member since Mar 2008
18342 posts
Posted on 12/19/11 at 11:03 pm to
quote:

I just don't see the benefit of trading Prado for Smith.


Getting the CF will be the key to the deal. Kind of like the same thing with the Javy Vazquez trade. People thought it was centered around Melky when it was all about Viz.


quote:

The fact that Martin can step in and play a great 3B is so damn valuable to us.


Definitely.
This post was edited on 12/19/11 at 11:04 pm
Posted by glb
Atlanta
Member since Sep 2008
1610 posts
Posted on 12/19/11 at 11:21 pm to
quote:

Getting the CF will be the key to the deal. Kind of like the same thing with the Javy Vazquez trade. People thought it was centered around Melky when it was all about Viz.


No doubt that would be key. Moving Prado this year would create such a huge hole for us this year, it would have to be a prospect with some heavy upside.

Who is the CF that we'd want from them?

I highly doubt the Rockies would ever deal him, but we need to get their boy Nolan Arenado! I don't know anything about him except what I've read, but I'm hoping that Wren is putting it in their ear that we will trade Prado and also JJ (and a prospect probably) if we they'll package Nolan Arenado with Smith.

Posted by SwampDonks
Member since Mar 2008
18342 posts
Posted on 12/19/11 at 11:26 pm to
quote:

Who is the CF that we'd want from them?


Tim Wheeler. 30 HR/20 SB this past year, and knows how to take some walks. Does strikeout a bunch, though.
Posted by SwampDonks
Member since Mar 2008
18342 posts
Posted on 12/19/11 at 11:27 pm to
quote:

I highly doubt the Rockies would ever deal him, but we need to get their boy Nolan Arenado!


One could only dream
Posted by glb
Atlanta
Member since Sep 2008
1610 posts
Posted on 12/19/11 at 11:29 pm to
While I was comparing some of Prado's stats to Smith's I came across something that impressed me. Look at Prado's Zone Contact Percentage.


Z-Contact%
2006: 91.5
2007: 93.0
2008: 93.7
2009: 94.0
2010: 95.5
2011: 96.1

Career: 94.9%

That is pretty impressive.
This post was edited on 12/19/11 at 11:30 pm
Posted by Robot Santa
Member since Oct 2009
46346 posts
Posted on 12/19/11 at 11:31 pm to
quote:

I'm worried they think the team is "good enough" as currently comprised.



We don't really need a lot. I can kind of see why the FO would think that way. If Heyward gets back to his rookie year production, and we get a ~20-25 HR bat in LF, the only thing holding us back will be Fredi. Unfortunately, Fredi holds us back kind of like how a 12 ton anchor keeps an aircraft carrier from floating away.
Posted by SwampDonks
Member since Mar 2008
18342 posts
Posted on 12/19/11 at 11:35 pm to
It most certainly is. He doesn't strike out which is pretty rare. I hope we hold onto him as he's one of my favorite players. If we trade him, which I don't hope we do, we better already have our solution for 3B next year in mind.
Posted by glb
Atlanta
Member since Sep 2008
1610 posts
Posted on 12/19/11 at 11:36 pm to
quote:

Tim Wheeler. 30 HR/20 SB this past year, and knows how to take some walks. Does strikeout a bunch, though.


Oh damn. I missed him somehow. That's a hell of a power jump.
Posted by SwampDonks
Member since Mar 2008
18342 posts
Posted on 12/19/11 at 11:40 pm to
I'm really interested in seeing him this year at AAA and if he can sustain that kind of power. He's a very intriguing prospect, even with all the strikeouts.

Kind of reminds me of a Drew Stubbs with more power. Whether that is a good thing depends on who you ask.
Posted by glb
Atlanta
Member since Sep 2008
1610 posts
Posted on 12/19/11 at 11:41 pm to
quote:

He doesn't strike out which is pretty rare. I hope we hold onto him as he's one of my favorite players. If we trade him, which I don't hope we do, we better already have our solution for 3B next year in mind.


I've always liked Prado, but I think I'm starting to value him even more now that there are rumors of us trading him. If he's healthy again, he's not going to hit like he did last year after the injury. All the numbers point at that as being the issue.
Posted by SwampDonks
Member since Mar 2008
18342 posts
Posted on 12/19/11 at 11:48 pm to
There's no chance he has a year like last year IMO. If he can just get back to his .800 OPS, which he had in the 3 years before last year, then that would have been good for 5th in the NL last year for LF. Although, he would have been behind Seth Smith

He's a "professional" hitter.
Posted by Rohan2Reed
Member since Nov 2003
75674 posts
Posted on 12/19/11 at 11:50 pm to
Dear Atlanta Braves,

How about you not send a player to the Rockies that will make them even better.

TIA,
San Francisco Giants front office
Posted by SwampDonks
Member since Mar 2008
18342 posts
Posted on 12/19/11 at 11:51 pm to
How your Giants looking for this upcoming year right now? Expecting any moves?
Posted by glb
Atlanta
Member since Sep 2008
1610 posts
Posted on 12/20/11 at 12:00 am to
quote:

Although, he would have been behind Seth Smith


Like I said, I don't trust a player whose stats are driven by a platoon split. Would you prefer a Smith/Diaz platoon or Prado in there as a full time player? I know I'd prefer Prado.
Posted by Rohan2Reed
Member since Nov 2003
75674 posts
Posted on 12/20/11 at 12:00 am to
moves have already been made. they're focusing mostly on locking up Lincecum and Cain. not really any money left.

I'm fairly optimistic considering we seem to have upgraded our offense. There's absolutely no way they can be any worse than last year. They scored fewer runs than anyone in baseball in 2011 besides the Mariners (only by 14 runs).

Plus the pitching staff should be solid again. Losing Sanchez is a bit scary. Not because he was so great (fricker never threw strikes) but because our 5th starter is Zito with inexperienced Eric Surkamp as the fall-back guy. We could really use Zach Wheeler in the system right now.

I expect the starting roster to be:

C - Posey
1B - Huff/Pill
2B - Sanchez
3B - Panda
SS - Crawford
LF - Belt
CF - Pagan
RF - Melky

Lincecum
Cain
Bumgarner
Vogelsong
Zito

Wilson
Romo
Lopez
Affeldt
Runzler
Mota

D-Backs and Rockies are going to be tough. Padres and Dodgers will have a lolz season.
Posted by SwampDonks
Member since Mar 2008
18342 posts
Posted on 12/20/11 at 12:03 am to
I'd much prefer the everyday player. Could Smith/Diaz put up better numbers? Sure, and the numbers say they would. But there is also uncertainty everyday. Platoon's are something I'm not fond of.

If Prado was strictly an OF, I'd probably do the deal without flinching. With his value as an INF and potential 3B replacement for Chip, it's hard to get rid of him.
Posted by SwampDonks
Member since Mar 2008
18342 posts
Posted on 12/20/11 at 12:05 am to
quote:

RF - Melky


The Melk-Man
Posted by OBUDan
Chicago
Member since Aug 2006
40723 posts
Posted on 12/20/11 at 12:12 am to
It sucks that Melky shite on a dick in his time in ATL.
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