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Started By
Message
Tennis 2020 -- The Unofficial Non-GS Thread
Posted on 12/13/19 at 12:14 pm
Posted on 12/13/19 at 12:14 pm
The time is upon us.
2020 is shaping up to be a fun year in tennis. We finally stumbled upon a generation of guys good enough to be "now" as opposed to just "next".
Here is your current ATP top 20 plus 1 with age, country, and atp points included.
Bold prediction #1: The Big 4 will only win 2 grand slams in 2020.
Bold Prediction #2: Rafael Nadal will win one GS in 2020.*
__________________
*okay, maybe I used the term "bold" a little loosely there.
2020 is shaping up to be a fun year in tennis. We finally stumbled upon a generation of guys good enough to be "now" as opposed to just "next".
Here is your current ATP top 20 plus 1 with age, country, and atp points included.
Bold prediction #1: The Big 4 will only win 2 grand slams in 2020.
Bold Prediction #2: Rafael Nadal will win one GS in 2020.*
__________________
*okay, maybe I used the term "bold" a little loosely there.
5
Posted on 12/13/19 at 12:20 pm to MidnightVibe
Hopefully this year is Félix Auger-Aliassime’s breakout year. I say he wins one GS in 2020.
Posted on 12/13/19 at 12:22 pm to MidnightVibe
quote:
The time is upon us.
quote:
12/13/19
no
Posted on 12/13/19 at 12:32 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:
no
Yes. And gfy.
Posted on 12/13/19 at 12:43 pm to MidnightVibe
Jeff Sackman apparently did some minor tweaks to his ELO rating. Blog post here: LINK /
I think his ELO rating is far from perfect if we are trying to come up with a predictive "Power" ranking, but it's at least a little better than ATP rankings.
I actually don't think it would be terribly hard to come up with a more predictive algorithm, and I have some ideas about how it might look. Only problem is I don't have the math/coding chops to do it myself quickly, and I don't have the time to ramp up my coding chops such that I could do it implement it in any realistic time frame.
So, yeah, beggars can't be choosers, I suppose.
I think his ELO rating is far from perfect if we are trying to come up with a predictive "Power" ranking, but it's at least a little better than ATP rankings.
I actually don't think it would be terribly hard to come up with a more predictive algorithm, and I have some ideas about how it might look. Only problem is I don't have the math/coding chops to do it myself quickly, and I don't have the time to ramp up my coding chops such that I could do it implement it in any realistic time frame.
So, yeah, beggars can't be choosers, I suppose.
Posted on 12/13/19 at 12:55 pm to MidnightVibe
Stayiing on the Sackman front, this is a good post about the down-the-line backhand, which is one of the hardest shots to hit effectively from the baseline. Soooo much easier to just pop it back crosscourt.
LINK /
LINK /
Posted on 12/13/19 at 1:02 pm to MidnightVibe
And, of course, a surface speed post.
LINK /
He does his surface speed ratings by Ace %, which is highly imperfect. Would shots per point not be a way better proxy? I feel like it would be. I wonder if he doesn't have the data needed to do it that way.
LINK /
He does his surface speed ratings by Ace %, which is highly imperfect. Would shots per point not be a way better proxy? I feel like it would be. I wonder if he doesn't have the data needed to do it that way.
Posted on 12/13/19 at 2:23 pm to MidnightVibe
quote:
The Big 4 will only win 2 grand slams in 2020
4? Does this include Murray, who never really belonged in the first place?
Posted on 12/13/19 at 2:38 pm to MidnightVibe
quote:
ELO rating
Funny you mentioned this because I e-mailed him Tuesday to see if he knows why the ratings aren't more predictive and he gave this non-answer below. Either he really doesn't know, or he has a better model that he's keeping under wraps.
Posted on 12/13/19 at 2:51 pm to MidnightVibe
quote:
Would shots per point not be a way better proxy?
I would think so, but I wouldn't expect it to be any better than the CPI that's already out there. You could have 2 tourneys at the same complex in back to back weeks and have massively different numbers for shots per point based on the type of players in the field. Of course you would adjust for servebots and extreme pushers, but how much work would that take? And how do you quantify how much each player changes their playing style on surfaces with different speeds?
Posted on 12/13/19 at 3:19 pm to bayoucracka
Imagine trying to create a rating system that could beat the betting markets. What type of factors would you have to consider besides skill level? Well, just off the top of my head...
1. Current form
2. Surface
3. Court speed
4. Weather
5. Fatigue
6. Accumulated fatigue
7. Head to head
8. Motivation
9. Injuries
10. Record vs. certain player types
It would be very difficult to quantify any of these things, let alone all of them... for each individual match.
You might be better off using Elo ratings in a reverse sort of way compared to betting odds. For example, if Elo says Thiem should beat Nishikori 60% of the time, but the money line (-300) is implying that Thiem wins 75% of the time, maybe Thiem would be the play. We could surmise that oddsmakers and/or bettors are seeing a big difference in the other factors not related to skill level, and we could/should trust in the wisdom of crowds.
I haven't tried this, but it seems like a decent idea. I might give it a shot when they start back up next month.
1. Current form
2. Surface
3. Court speed
4. Weather
5. Fatigue
6. Accumulated fatigue
7. Head to head
8. Motivation
9. Injuries
10. Record vs. certain player types
It would be very difficult to quantify any of these things, let alone all of them... for each individual match.
You might be better off using Elo ratings in a reverse sort of way compared to betting odds. For example, if Elo says Thiem should beat Nishikori 60% of the time, but the money line (-300) is implying that Thiem wins 75% of the time, maybe Thiem would be the play. We could surmise that oddsmakers and/or bettors are seeing a big difference in the other factors not related to skill level, and we could/should trust in the wisdom of crowds.
I haven't tried this, but it seems like a decent idea. I might give it a shot when they start back up next month.
This post was edited on 12/13/19 at 3:24 pm
Posted on 12/13/19 at 3:25 pm to MidnightVibe
I like Medvedev's swagger
Posted on 12/13/19 at 3:40 pm to SirWinston
Posted on 12/16/19 at 2:49 pm to bayoucracka
quote:
You could have 2 tourneys at the same complex in back to back weeks and have massively different numbers for shots per point based on the type of players in the field. Of course you would adjust for servebots and extreme pushers, but how much work would that take
You would have to adjust it. It would essentially be on a per-player basis. Very doable, but would take me a long long time.
Posted on 12/16/19 at 4:32 pm to bayoucracka
(no message)
This post was edited on 5/8/20 at 12:57 pm
Posted on 12/17/19 at 5:55 am to pelicansfan123
Yeah that was just off the top of my head.
Throw in French brains too.
Throw in French brains too.
Posted on 12/17/19 at 7:09 am to bayoucracka
Posted on 12/17/19 at 10:39 am to bayoucracka
Cool, nice find, Crack.
Straight up dropping some hardcore tennis nerd porn on us!
Straight up dropping some hardcore tennis nerd porn on us!
Posted on 12/17/19 at 10:41 am to MidnightVibe
I jerk off to court speed data.
Posted on 12/17/19 at 10:42 am to MidnightVibe
It looks like D Med dealing with a hip issue.
But how bad could it be when he announced his withdrawal after routining Foggy 2 and 2?
Hopefully it’s just an excuse to get an extra week off, which he deserves. Dude played a lot of matches this year
But how bad could it be when he announced his withdrawal after routining Foggy 2 and 2?
Hopefully it’s just an excuse to get an extra week off, which he deserves. Dude played a lot of matches this year
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