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Started By
Message
re: Teams with best hitter/pitcher combo?
Posted on 3/29/16 at 7:49 pm to The Seaward
Posted on 3/29/16 at 7:49 pm to The Seaward
Harper, trout, and Kershaw alone put their pairs in the discussion
1
Posted on 3/29/16 at 7:56 pm to WestCoastAg
Harper does
Trout and Kershaw dont. Too weak on the other end
Trout 9.4 WAR
Richards 1.8 WAR
Kershaw 7.4 WAR
AGon 4 WAR
For comparison
Grienke 9.9 WAR
GOldy 8.8
Harper 9.9 WAR
Scherzer 7.1 WAR
All 4 of these guys were top 10 in MLB in WAR. It's Not close.
Trout and Kershaw dont. Too weak on the other end
Trout 9.4 WAR
Richards 1.8 WAR
Kershaw 7.4 WAR
AGon 4 WAR
For comparison
Grienke 9.9 WAR
GOldy 8.8
Harper 9.9 WAR
Scherzer 7.1 WAR
All 4 of these guys were top 10 in MLB in WAR. It's Not close.
This post was edited on 3/29/16 at 8:07 pm
Posted on 3/29/16 at 8:18 pm to Lester Earl
ZIPS projects Trout and Richards to be worth 3 more fWAR than Greinke and Goldy FWIW.
Posted on 3/29/16 at 8:30 pm to Lester Earl
I was using fangraphs and this is how it comes out
Kershaw 8.6 WAR
Adrian Gonzalez 3 WAR
Trout 9 WAR
Richards 2.5 WAR
Greinke 6 WAR
Goldy 7.4 WAR
Harper 9.5 WAR
Scherzer 6.4 WAR
Nationals 15.9 WAR
DBacks 13.4 WAR
Dodgers 11.6 WAR
Angels 11.5 WAR
I didn't say the angels or the Dodgers were better, just that they were still somewhat in the discussion, definitely on the outside though, because of Kershaw and trout
Kershaw 8.6 WAR
Adrian Gonzalez 3 WAR
Trout 9 WAR
Richards 2.5 WAR
Greinke 6 WAR
Goldy 7.4 WAR
Harper 9.5 WAR
Scherzer 6.4 WAR
Nationals 15.9 WAR
DBacks 13.4 WAR
Dodgers 11.6 WAR
Angels 11.5 WAR
I didn't say the angels or the Dodgers were better, just that they were still somewhat in the discussion, definitely on the outside though, because of Kershaw and trout
This post was edited on 3/29/16 at 8:31 pm
Posted on 3/29/16 at 8:33 pm to WestCoastAg
If looking forward to 2016, I think using a projection system such as ZIPS, Steamer or PECOTA is better than simply taking last year.
This post was edited on 3/29/16 at 8:40 pm
Posted on 3/29/16 at 8:33 pm to The Seaward
Agreed. I was just using last years since that's what was already being used
Posted on 3/29/16 at 8:48 pm to The Seaward
What is each' projected WAR?
Posted on 3/29/16 at 8:50 pm to Lester Earl
Trout 8.5
Richards 3.6
Goldy 4.8
Greinke 4.4
Richards 3.6
Goldy 4.8
Greinke 4.4
Posted on 3/29/16 at 8:52 pm to tduecen
Reds- Joey Votto and Raisiel Iglesias
Posted on 3/29/16 at 8:55 pm to The Seaward
quote:
Goldy 4.8
The frick? He had a 7.4 fWAR. I totally under regression, but that seems a little steep.
Posted on 3/29/16 at 8:56 pm to The Seaward
thats ridiculous
Posted on 3/29/16 at 9:01 pm to Lester Earl
I'd take the over on Goldy's projection too, but honestly ZIPS is more robust and sophisticated than any human projection.
This post was edited on 3/29/16 at 9:03 pm
Posted on 3/29/16 at 9:07 pm to The Seaward
It may be, but Zips is often wrong
Posted on 3/29/16 at 9:09 pm to Lester Earl
No doubt, so are humans. Baseball is unpredictable. Steamer projects:
Trout 9.0
Richards 3.1
Goldy 5.4
Greinke 4.2
Trout 9.0
Richards 3.1
Goldy 5.4
Greinke 4.2
Posted on 3/29/16 at 9:10 pm to tduecen
Tier 1:
Marlins- Fernandez and Stanton
Nationals- Scherzer and Harper
DBacks- Greinke and Goldscmidt
Cubs- Arrieta and Bryant
Probably in that order, but 1 and 2 are so close. I can't wait to see how good Fernandez becomes over the next few years, whereas Scherzer is at his peak. I feel like Stanton is going to hit 50 HRs at some point soon.
Marlins- Fernandez and Stanton
Nationals- Scherzer and Harper
DBacks- Greinke and Goldscmidt
Cubs- Arrieta and Bryant
Probably in that order, but 1 and 2 are so close. I can't wait to see how good Fernandez becomes over the next few years, whereas Scherzer is at his peak. I feel like Stanton is going to hit 50 HRs at some point soon.
Posted on 3/29/16 at 9:44 pm to tduecen
Greinke and Goldschmidt followed by Harper and Scherzer.
Posted on 3/29/16 at 9:51 pm to tduecen
Marlins
Posted on 3/29/16 at 10:00 pm to auzach91
In terms of pure talent, the Marlins may very well be number 1, but way too much injury risk there for me to put them first. Fernandez hasn't thrown over 100 innings in two years and Stanton has had his fair share of injuries as well.
Posted on 3/29/16 at 10:13 pm to The Seaward
quote:
I'd take the over on Goldy's projection too, but honestly ZIPS is probably better than any human projection.
Overall, yes. However, you can take a projection like ZIPS, evaluate each aspect, and make small human judgments. Eno Sarris even talked about making mental notes on these projections because that struggle to understand the facts of past injury or relevant information, such as the development of a new pitch, increased velocity (traditionally unlikely, but possible by working through programs like Driveline Baseball), etc.
I love these metrics, but you do not have to have blind faith. You can respect and love these projections and still think the occasional projection is not a great fit.
Posted on 3/29/16 at 11:01 pm to Vicks Kennel Club
I'm not advocating taking these projections as gospel. And I agree there are certain things the projections can miss or not account for. Overall, I think they do better than humans though because they have way less biases, but baseball is way too unpredictable for either to be seen as infallible.
This post was edited on 3/30/16 at 8:29 am
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