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re: Rangers offense

Posted on 7/21/09 at 1:49 pm to
Posted by supatigah
CEO of the Keith Hernandez Fan Club
Member since Mar 2004
90134 posts
Posted on 7/21/09 at 1:49 pm to
quote:

Unfortunately, AAA is not the Majors. I have no confidence in Davis' ability to hit in the Majors again this year...



that seems rather shortsighted, what if Blalock gets hurt again? Davis would be called back up right?

quote:

It could happen with the starting rotation in the back end (or Padilla for that matter), but I have a ton of confidence in that bullpen right now. It will only get better when they call up Feliz.


I think the heat plays more of a factor on the Rangers pitching staff every year than most realize. If they fade this august like they typically do, the Rangers have not hit the ball enough thus far to carry a faltering pitching staff.

quote:

I'm not sure anyone really wants to trade pitching at this point...almost everybody wants to add to their staffs.


there are some teams that are still "alive" today that won't be in 10 days or will decide to become sellers because of financial concerns.

Posted by BigBoyTiger
Cleveland
Member since Aug 2005
9578 posts
Posted on 7/21/09 at 1:52 pm to
All fair points

I do think with the right workout regimen and the right pitching coach, the pitching staff can fight through the heat.

I think that is the difference this year.
Posted by supatigah
CEO of the Keith Hernandez Fan Club
Member since Mar 2004
90134 posts
Posted on 7/21/09 at 1:55 pm to
quote:

Probably not true. I figure, at worst, he is a Type B free agent..you could probably get a 2nd round compensatory pick.



Hank Blalock 3b
5 years/$15.25M (2004-08), plus 2009 club option
5 years/$15.25M (2004-08), plus 2009 club option
re-signed by Texas 2/04 (avoided arbitration)
04:$0.5M, 05:$0.8M; 06:$3M, 07:$4.75M, 08:$5.95M, 09:$6.2M club option ($0.25M buyout)
award bonus: $50,000 for All Star selection
Texas exercised $6.2M 2009 option 11/7/08
1 year/$0.3025M (2003)
drafted 1999 (3-105)
$0.288M signing bonus
agent: Eric Goldschmidt
ML service: 6.064


Blalock would be a Type B free agent after this season
Posted by Baloo
Formerly MDGeaux
Member since Sep 2003
49645 posts
Posted on 7/21/09 at 1:57 pm to
The deadline is 10 days away. That’s a lot of stuff to happen. And the idea of trading Blalock in May was a lot more appealing (before Davis went splat). The bullpen, strangely enough, has been a team strength, so I think the idea of trading anyone for bullpen help is probably dead. Then again, trading for bullpen help is usually a bad idea in general.

Will the pitching wilt? I don’t know. Really, while the pitching overall has been good, no one other than Millwood has really been an above average starter. Seriously, here’s the ERA+ of their starters (100 is league average): 129, 114, 95, 90, 72, 74. And Tommy Hunter has posted a 189 in 4 starts, but let’s throw that out. It’s not like the starting pitching is lighting the world on fire now. In fact, only two starters are pitching above league average. This is a very sustainable pitching performance.

I think the only way you trade Blalock is if you’re trading for prospects and the team is out of contention. Which is highly unlikely to happen in 10 days.

I'd rather have the compensatory pick. and I thought there was a club option. Is he on his option year?
Posted by BigBoyTiger
Cleveland
Member since Aug 2005
9578 posts
Posted on 7/21/09 at 2:04 pm to
quote:

Will the pitching wilt? I don’t know. Really, while the pitching overall has been good, no one other than Millwood has really been an above average starter. Seriously, here’s the ERA+ of their starters (100 is league average): 129, 114, 95, 90, 72, 74. And Tommy Hunter has posted a 189 in 4 starts, but let’s throw that out. It’s not like the starting pitching is lighting the world on fire now. In fact, only two starters are pitching above league average. This is a very sustainable pitching performance.


Compared to what we have seen the past 10 years, it seems like five All Stars in the rotation.

In all seriousness, Millwood has been awesome and Feldman has been fantastically consistent. I mean, I don't know if there are many guys in MLB this year as consistent as Feldman. It seems like he is 6 IP and 3 ER every single start.
Posted by supatigah
CEO of the Keith Hernandez Fan Club
Member since Mar 2004
90134 posts
Posted on 7/21/09 at 2:12 pm to
I am not saying they will trade Blalock, I am saying there is a very logical case for trading him. As well as a logical case for not trading him.

The Rangers have made a concerted effort to stop acquiring established pitchers via FA and trades and to try to acquire prospects and grow their own pitchers organically through their system. That will take some time

Looking at Cot's what I find strange is Young and Kinsler are the only two players that are locked up to multi year deals. Millwood's deal ends in 2010, Padilla has a club option after this season, Blalock is on a club option now, Benoit's contract ends this season and EVERYONE else on the roster is on 1 year contracts.

The Rangers are about to get killed by arbitration and free agency
Posted by BigBoyTiger
Cleveland
Member since Aug 2005
9578 posts
Posted on 7/21/09 at 2:15 pm to
quote:

Millwood's deal ends in 2010


Actually, the contract ends this year, but if he pitches 180 or more innings, he automatically gets like a $12 Million, one-year deal next year.

quote:

The Rangers are about to get killed by arbitration and free agency
.

Some of these guys are just stop gaps: Andruw Jones, Marlon Byrd (I believe they will keep Murph and Cruz instead). They still have a lot of guys under control. I bet they will try to tie up Wilson, O'Day, Hamilton, and Feldman in the offseason.
Posted by Baloo
Formerly MDGeaux
Member since Sep 2003
49645 posts
Posted on 7/21/09 at 2:30 pm to
I don’t think the case to trade him is very logical right now. I think it would be a terrible idea to trade Blalock right now, unless some team was begging to be ripped off.

I think you overstate how much they are about to get killed. Checking out that site, which is awesome and how did I not know it existed, Blalock and Benoit coming off the books for 10 mm in savings. And a lot of those one year deals are to minor league promotions who have no chance to walk (Andrus, Murphy, Salty, half of the pitching staff). And arbitration is going to keep most guys on the team at a reasonable cost. Except maybe Hamilton.

And a lot of other guys are simply placeholders for the minor leaguers coming up. The Rangers have one of the top farm systems in baseball, and the youth movement is in full force right now. Young players are cheap because they have no leverage.
Posted by supatigah
CEO of the Keith Hernandez Fan Club
Member since Mar 2004
90134 posts
Posted on 7/21/09 at 2:31 pm to
quote:

club may elect to keep Millwood even if he fails to hit IP totals

deferred money allows Texas to compute annual average salary at $10.8M



quote:

They still have a lot of guys under control. I bet they will try to tie up Wilson, O'Day, Hamilton, and Feldman in the offseason.


no they really don't and this is a sign of bad things to come.

quote:

Rangers borrow money from MLB
By Gordon Edes, Yahoo! Sports
Jul 2, 5:17 pm EDT

Major League Baseball within the last week loaned millions to Tom Hicks, the evidently cash-strapped owner of the Texas Rangers, and will continue to offer financial assistance to Hicks until he is able to sell the team, a major league source with direct knowledge of the situation told Yahoo! Sports on Thursday.

“He won’t be running the team much longer,” the source said. “Major League Baseball is helping him through this until someone else can be put in place to run the club.”

Rangers spokesman John Blake said the club would have no comment on the team’s financial situation. Rich Levin, a spokesman for the commissioner’s office, said MLB does not comment on its teams’ finances.

Reports of Hicks’ most recent difficulties surfaced during a radio show on XM/Sirius radio, when a caller said he’d heard the Rangers had not made payroll, and that Hicks had borrowed $15 million from MLB to do so.


A major league source told Yahoo! Sports the loan to the Hicks Sports Group was not made specifically to help Hicks with payroll obligations, and believed that the amount was for less than $15 million. A club source confirmed that the team met payroll and that the club is maintaining normal business operations, although earlier this season the team reduced its front office staff by 10 percent.

Hicks first announced he was willing to sell a minority stake in the club in March. But after the Hicks Sports Group defaulted on an interest-only payment on a $525 million loan to his U.S.-based sports operations, Hicks said he would be willing to sell a controlling interest in the team.

Hicks, who made his fortune in private equity, has an estimated personal worth of $1 billion, according to the 2009 annual survey by Forbes magazine. Hicks’ first major foray into sports came in 1995, when he purchased the NHL’s Dallas Stars, a team that twice went to the Stanley Cup finals since he took control. In 1998, he bought the Rangers for $250 million, but his baseball team has not come close to matching the early success he had with the Stars; the Rangers have never been to the World Series.

Hicks gained notoriety after the 2000 season when he signed Alex Rodriguez(notes) to a 10-year, $252 million contract, the largest in baseball history and reportedly at least $100 million more than any other team was willing to pay Rodriguez. The deal blew up on Hicks. The Rangers finished in last place in each of Rodriguez’s three years with the team, and Hicks traded him to the Yankees by agreeing to pay $67 million of the $179 million still owed Rodriguez in the deal, plus an additional $4 million in signing bonus.

Even after Rodriguez voided his deal with the Yankees, then re-signed a new 10-year, $275 million contract after the 2007 season, the Rangers were stuck with a $9 million bill in deferred compensation.

During his time with the Rangers, Rodriguez also tested positive for steroids. Hicks said he felt “personally betrayed and deceived” when news of the failed test broke earlier this year.

The Rangers’ opening day payroll this season was around $68.1 million, which ranked 22nd among MLB’s 30 teams and was less than $1 million more than its 2008 level. The Rangers until recently were in first place in the American League West, but Hicks’ financial woes would seem to make it unlikely that Texas GM Jon Daniels will be in a position to add payroll at the July 31 trading deadline.

A sale of the club does not appear imminent, and while names of prospective buyers have surfaced – Hall of Famer Nolan Ryan, the team’s president, is said to be interested in becoming part of a new ownership group – there would appear to be little chance of the team being sold before the end of the season


a lot of one year deals with guys that are young, up and coming performers or arbitration eligible means not being able to stay 22/30 in payroll for long. Or it means a shite load of compensatory picks for guys that are leaving because the team can't afford to lock them up
This post was edited on 7/21/09 at 2:33 pm
Posted by Baloo
Formerly MDGeaux
Member since Sep 2003
49645 posts
Posted on 7/21/09 at 2:38 pm to
Oh, and you’re right about Hicks. He’s totally and completely screwed. He can’t even make interest payments on his loans. He absolutely has to sell this team, which probably means he won’t get the full value.

If Hicks owns the Rangers by the end of next season, I’ll be shocked.
Posted by MStreetTiger
Dallas
Member since Dec 2007
12403 posts
Posted on 7/21/09 at 2:45 pm to
quote:

If Hicks owns the Rangers by the end of next season, I’ll be shocked.



Agreed. I'm wondering if he finally sells his share in Liverpool to raise money.

Good discussion guys. I'm sorry to not be able to contribute much to it this afternoon due to work.
Posted by supatigah
CEO of the Keith Hernandez Fan Club
Member since Mar 2004
90134 posts
Posted on 7/21/09 at 2:47 pm to
quote:

I think you overstate how much they are about to get killed. Checking out that site, which is awesome and how did I not know it existed, Blalock and Benoit coming off the books for 10 mm in savings. And a lot of those one year deals are to minor league promotions who have no chance to walk (Andrus, Murphy, Salty, half of the pitching staff). And arbitration is going to keep most guys on the team at a reasonable cost. Except maybe Hamilton.


I understand how major league/minor league contracts and player rights work. But what I also understand is Hicks had to take out a loan to keep the team in 1st place in the West afloat with just a $68mm payroll obligation. So they are caught between a rock and rock with guys like Hamilton and Cruz that are all stars playing on minimum 1yr deals. the Indians went all out years ago and signed their young stars to long range deals and that allowed them to contend for years. Texas is in a similar situation but they may not have the money to lock them up and may only get arbitration contracts or draft picks in the process. Those arbitration hearings are going to get expensive with guys that have an All Star appearance on their resume

gonna be interesting to see how this plays out. Lose a guy like Blalock in the off season, get a 2nd round supplemental pick in return but have to pay a 2nd round draftee a $1-1.5mm signing bonus for someone that won't help you for 3 years.

I don't understand why Salty isn't in the mix any more at 1B. was he that bad, or did they have to make room for Blalock and Davis?
Posted by BigBoyTiger
Cleveland
Member since Aug 2005
9578 posts
Posted on 7/21/09 at 2:49 pm to
quote:

this is a sign of bad things to come.


Not really...he's trying to sell majority interest in the team. I think there are some interested parties. Hopefully it will be done in short order.
Posted by supatigah
CEO of the Keith Hernandez Fan Club
Member since Mar 2004
90134 posts
Posted on 7/21/09 at 2:50 pm to
quote:

If Hicks owns the Rangers by the end of next season, I’ll be shocked.



me too but currently there are no (official) plans to sell the team and there are no ownership groups inquiring (officially)

this could be a terrible situation like the Cubs have been in for the last two years with a bankrupt ownership group and a sale process that is creeping along at a snail's pace.
Posted by supatigah
CEO of the Keith Hernandez Fan Club
Member since Mar 2004
90134 posts
Posted on 7/21/09 at 2:51 pm to
quote:

Agreed. I'm wondering if he finally sells his share in Liverpool to raise money.



he could because iirc the Soccer club is not attached to the $500mm debt he carries for the Stars/Rangers

Posted by BigBoyTiger
Cleveland
Member since Aug 2005
9578 posts
Posted on 7/21/09 at 2:55 pm to
quote:

this could be a terrible situation like the Cubs have been in for the last two years with a bankrupt ownership group and a sale process that is creeping along at a snail's pace.


This could be true, but I think this can be avoided given that the parent company has not filed for bankruptcy, but if Hicks Sports Group does file for bankruptcy, then all bets are off.
Posted by supatigah
CEO of the Keith Hernandez Fan Club
Member since Mar 2004
90134 posts
Posted on 7/21/09 at 2:58 pm to
quote:

Not really...he's trying to sell majority interest in the team. I think there are some interested parties. Hopefully it will be done in short order.


strangely the Cubs were valued in the 450mm in 2006 then the 700mm ballpark as recently as April 2009 LINK then sold for 900mm to the Ricketts family

Hicks is saying he hopes to get bids in the 550mm neighborhood but the team is valued by Forbes at $405mm LINK
ETA: major difference is Arlington owns the ballpark and the Cubs sale includes Wrigley
This post was edited on 7/21/09 at 2:59 pm
Posted by BigBoyTiger
Cleveland
Member since Aug 2005
9578 posts
Posted on 7/21/09 at 3:22 pm to
quote:

Hicks is saying he hopes to get bids in the 550mm neighborhood but the team is valued by Forbes at $405mm


Beggars can't be choosers. He really needs to sell his interest in the club to avoid bankruptcy. That's my understanding, anyway.
Posted by supatigah
CEO of the Keith Hernandez Fan Club
Member since Mar 2004
90134 posts
Posted on 7/21/09 at 3:29 pm to
the Wilpons that own the Mets are in deep doo-doo as well because of the Bernie Madoff scandal
what was originally thought to be >300mm in losses by the Wilpons

may actually be closer to 700 million in losses and may also put their ownership stake in peril

quote:

July 14, 2009
Report: Wilpon lost $700 million
(UPDATED: 7:15 P.M.) Keep this in mind, Mets fans, if the Wilpons sit tight at the trading deadline or in offseasons to come: CNN's Larry King says that close friend Fred Wilpon lost a staggering $700 million in the Bernie Madoff scheme.

In a lengthy interview with GQ Magazine in its June issue, King told author Chris Heath that Wilpon was responsible years ago for putting King in touch with Madoff to invest.

King said he lost $2.8 million to Madoff, but that Wilpon was duped out of the $700 million. According to Forbes magazine, which values all of the major professional franchises, the Mets are worth $912 million.

"Freddie says he's not angry," King told the magazine. "He's betrayed."

Neither the Mets nor Wilpon have ever confirmed how much he lost with Madoff, who recently began a 150-year prison sentence for the reported $65 billion scam. Earlier reports had put Wilpon's loss at between $300 million-$500 million.

Wilpon and the Mets have insisted repeatedly since the Madoff scam erupted last December that the losses would not impact the team's ability to take on payroll or sign free agents, but their actions since then indicate otherwise.

The Mets' only significant financial addition or move since the scandal was the signing of Oliver Perez to a three-year, $36 million deal in January


Posted by LfcSU3520
Arizona
Member since Dec 2003
24474 posts
Posted on 7/21/09 at 4:54 pm to
quote:

52 ABs is not a lot admittedly, but it's enough to show that we shouldn't see him make the jump to the majors until at least September if not next April.


it's really not enough to tell you anything. At all.

That's in the neighborhood of ten to fifteen games and that's way too small of a sample size to determine anything. There are so many other factors that can enter into someone's play that to judge it that quickly makes it a worthless exercise.

No saying you're wrong, but it's way too early to judge.
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