re: Official Wk 4 College FB Bet Thread (Swiggety Swooty, I'm Commin for that Booty)

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How bad is Oregon St?

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They are pretty bad. Freshman all over the field including at QB. Michigan is a team similar to Stanford, and they pounded OSU into submission with the run.

Final card (will add one more possibly two saturday though)

-Arkansas +7.5
-Cincy +10 (WIN)
-Tn +1.5
-mich -5.5
-duke +8
-ecu +10
-kansas +14

i am laying off. But gun to my head... virginia

5-6-1
Utah+5.5
Adding
Over tcu 81
Ohio st -31.5

quote:

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Under a lot of pressure now to deliver here

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easy $$$

Week 4

Oregon State +14.5 (2x)
Boston College -4.5 (2x)
Maryland +16 (2x)
Michigan -6.5 (2x)
New Mexico -3.5 (2x)

Missouri +2.5
Ohio State -31.5
Middle Tennessee +4.5
Rice +34.5
Florida +1
Syracuse +24
Mississippi State +3

and les and cuse coach are good friends

Year to Date teaser grid... home dogs continue to be where the money is on teasers, specifically dogs that are between +0.5 and +6.5 and +14.5 and higher.

Hello, guys! I've been a lurker in this thread the last couple of weeks. I don't actually bet, and am definitely a "square" or "the public" or whatever you guys like to call us casual observers, but it's interesting to see your analysis. There are some games that get my attention this week, so I thought it would be fun to make some picks. Lines are from Vegas Insider.

In order of how strongly I feel about them, here they are:

Mississippi State +2.5 at Auburn

I watched LSU vs. both teams and to me there's no question that MSU is the superior team. Auburn's defense is terrible against a mobile QB who can run the read option, and Dak Prescott is one of the best. He's also a good passer. I don't see how Auburn's defense can win this matchup. Defensively, MSU is strong up front. Unlike Auburn, when LSU refused to throw and tried to control the ball solely with the run, MSU was able to stop them. The weakness is in the secondary, but a freshman first-time starting Sean White seems unlikely to be able to exploit it. I figure the great MSU front will also be coming after him to try to rattle him, and I think they succeed. Everything I've seen from both teams suggests not only a State cover and straight up win, but a solid and convincing one. I think Bully dines well on Tiger meat Saturday to the tune of double digits. The pick is MSU +2.5 over Auburn*(see note below).

LSU -24 at Syracuse

I think LSU is good enough to cover this, but I'm sensing something worrying to me. It's not about schemes or matchups (although for what it's worth, Syracuse's strength on defense is vs. the run, which is LSU's only demonstrated weapon so far), but instead it's for psychological reasons that I am worried. Granted, we're favored by a lot, but I haven't seen this level of overconfidence surrounding a game in a while. I know the fans' and media's attitude doesn't necessarily match the teams', but I think they do more often than people think. All week, LSU has been basking in the glory of the Auburn blowout and Fournette's coming out party. Even Syracuse media and fans are just praying for no injuries and to keep the margin somewhat respectable. I think LSU goes into this game overconfident and Syracuse plays like a team with nothing to lose, and this one is a lot closer than people expect. I think LSU gets the win straight up, but I very much doubt they cover a 24-point spread. A win by 10-14 points seems much more likely to me. The pick is Syracuse +24 over LSU.

Texas A&M -7 vs. Arkansas

Arkansas is hurting on defense right now, especially against a fast-paced passing offense, which is right up A&M's alley. I think A&M puts up big offensive numbers in this one. Aggy is a little shaky on defense, but Arkansas doesn't have the offense to win a shootout, or even keep it close. The pick is Texas A&M -7 over Arkansas.

Tennessee -1 at Florida

Florida looks shaky, and Tennessee has already played a good game against a strong opponent. In spite of the heartbreaking loss to OU, I think they are still emotionally intact and ready to prove something in this, their first big game since that loss. I'm not crazy about UT's defense, but also am not thrilled with UF's offense. I think Tennessee comes out on a mission and wins this one. The pick is Tennessee -1 over Florida.

Good luck to all of you who are actually betting this week, and I hope I'm wrong on all of the above except MSU-Auburn.

* (the consensus line on MSU-Auburn moved from 3 to 2.5 while I was typing this post, so apparently I'm not the only one thinking MSU is the pick here)