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re: Official Week 8 College Football Bet Thread
Posted on 10/19/15 at 12:43 pm to accnodefense
Posted on 10/19/15 at 12:43 pm to accnodefense
Damn Acc. Lol i feel the complete opposite of you

Posted on 10/19/15 at 12:50 pm to SDVTiger
quote:
Damn Acc. Lol i feel the complete opposite of you
The first time I ever went to Las Vegas(NCAA Tournament) I tried both the Bellagio and Caesers. Both were nightmares because they were too crowded and you had to stand. We walked down the street to Mandalay Bay and we found seats and didn't have to pay.
It's for that I hate those places with a passion.
Wynn is OK but its a lot like The M, you have to get there really early if you want to sit. It's not pay to sit at the Wynn, but the seating is all cubby style except for some tables to the side so you have to show up early.
I prefer places where I can get up and go get some food or place a bet without having to worry about my seat being taken.
Posted on 10/19/15 at 12:58 pm to accnodefense
quote:
Mandalay Bay is good because its huge, and has plenty of places to sit(if you get there before 9). It's also the most well ventilated casino in my opinion, not a hazy smokefest.
MGM Grand is OK, its shaped like a horseshoe. Get there before 9 and grab a seat and you are set. It's big enough, and plenty of screens.
LVH Superbook is the largest book in Las Vegas. Lots of seating, its huge. Lots of betting options and good lines. The downside is that its degen central and the location isn't the best. It attracts a lot of degens, undesirables, and people making 12 team underdog parlays with their unemployment/welfare checks. The cocktail waitresses are also ugly. But there are free drinks, and if you don't mind the riff raff, its a great spot because there is plenty of seating.
I appreciate the information. I definitely do not want to pay to sit and want to be able to watch the games.
Forgive my ignorance, but how is the betting process? person/window teller or computer type thing?
I just want to be informed and not look like an idiot when I get out there.
Posted on 10/19/15 at 1:07 pm to accnodefense
I hear that but its week 8
The books are empty right now
Going during March Madness is always a nightmare
Getting a spot at Legassis outside with a server and fresh air is great
Best of luck this weekend
The books are empty right now
Going during March Madness is always a nightmare
Getting a spot at Legassis outside with a server and fresh air is great
Best of luck this weekend
Posted on 10/19/15 at 1:10 pm to rcl4
quote:
rcl4
quote:
I am going to vegas this weekend for the first time
No shite, me too.
Glad you asked this question, because I've never been
Posted on 10/19/15 at 1:11 pm to rcl4
quote:
I appreciate the information. I definitely do not want to pay to sit and want to be able to watch the games.
Forgive my ignorance, but how is the betting process? person/window teller or computer type thing?
Pay to sit is standard in Las Vegas because there are more people than seats, so naturally the hosts will rope off the places to sit and make you pay. But the larger books don't do this because they offer plenty of seating.
Here is advice I can give you:
1. Regardless of where you go, the seating will fill up, so get there early. I say show up to whatever book you go to, get there no later than 1 hour before the first games start, so 8:00am. This ensures you will have a seat. Bring a bottle of water and perhaps a snack, as it will stay rather full until the afternoon. Then the seating will thin out and you can get up and go get food or go to the bathroom without worrying about losing your seat.
2. Make all your bets no later than the night before. If you insist on making bets the day of the game, like I said, get there early. The lines get long, and lots of people are unable to get bets in by 9:00am kick. There will ALWAYS be someone making 100 different 8 team parlay bets and holding up the line. Even with multiple tellers the lines move slow. The lines thin out once the game starts, so if you want to bet a 6:00PM kick the day of the game, that's fine.
3. Betting is done via tellers or "writers". You tell them the SIDE NUMBER, not the team, you want to bet. For example, in a game between LSU and Alabama, LSU will be 101 and Alabama will be 102, the over will be 101 and the under will be 102. If you want to bet LSU, you tell the writer "101 Side". If you want to bet LSU Money Line, you tell the writer "101 Money Line". If you want to bet the over, you tell them "101 Over". If you want to do a parlay or teaser you tell them parlay or teaser, # of teams, # of points if its a teaser, and then give them the numbers. Teasers/Parlays can also be done on scantron like cards. All betting is done via game numbers. No need to mention the name of nay team. All of the numbers are on the odds boards they have, as well as additional games on the printouts.
Posted on 10/19/15 at 1:22 pm to accnodefense
quote:
Games I locked in last night. All of these are model plays.
Thanks for posting, ACC. If/when you post a link to your sheets, what is the easiest way to see the % associated with each play?
Posted on 10/19/15 at 1:22 pm to accnodefense
Thanks man. That is very helpful! Save me a lot of confusion!
Posted on 10/19/15 at 1:39 pm to bamaatlsu
quote:
Thanks for posting, ACC. If/when you post a link to your sheets, what is the easiest way to see the % associated with each play?
Bottom right corner
I ran them last night but didn't upload because there was a glitch on the way they came out, as I switched over to the non-weighted ratings yesterday so there are still some kinks to work out. I can access the raw numbers but its not presentable. I'll run them again tonight and post later tonight or tomorrow
Keep in mind that although my model is no longer influenced by the preseason numbers, the sample size is still pretty low so there will be some variance, but these numbers should be better than the first 7 weeks.
Posted on 10/19/15 at 1:46 pm to accnodefense
thanks
I have my list of auto-fades, blind bets, and I pay attention to RLM every week. It's always good to cross-reference my hunches with your model.
I have my list of auto-fades, blind bets, and I pay attention to RLM every week. It's always good to cross-reference my hunches with your model.
This post was edited on 10/19/15 at 1:49 pm
Posted on 10/19/15 at 2:26 pm to accnodefense
Have you publicized your betting record for this season yet? Curious as to how you are doing using the model.
Posted on 10/19/15 at 2:29 pm to LSUtoOmaha
quote:
Have you publicized your betting record for this season yet?
He usually gives an update every week on how the various different model outputs did. But I don't think he bets exactly what the model spits out every week, either.
Posted on 10/19/15 at 3:01 pm to bamaatlsu
quote:
He usually gives an update every week on how the various different model outputs did. But I don't think he bets exactly what the model spits out every week, either.
Yeah I am losing this season because I am not trusting my model enough.
I'll post how its done week by week later when I update the Week 7 results.
Posted on 10/19/15 at 3:17 pm to dcrews
I like the wynns sports book, but I didn't hang out there. Lagassis is more of a bar/ hang out spot with a sports book that was fun. Bet early there though because the area to bet is pretty small and can get crowded. I mainly just bet at Wynn sports book because that's where we stay, but then we will go watch games and stuff somewhere else. Good luck and have fun 
Posted on 10/19/15 at 3:53 pm to accnodefense
When did you go to Bellagio and pay to sit? My pops and I got good seats for free on CFB Saturday a couple weeks ago.
Posted on 10/19/15 at 4:19 pm to accnodefense
Here is how my model is doing this year. Universal Agreement is when all 3 methods agree on a side.
But Method 5 is the one I am keeping an eye on. It's my baby, its the simulator I designed in the offseason. It's the first year I have used it. Here is how it has done when it gives cover % of 60% or greater, and 76% or greater.
Method 5 is 20-7 this year ATS when it gives a cover % of 76.0% or higher.
HOWEVER... this is all based on the Weeks 1-7. Starting with Week 8(this week) my model calculates everything differently. Weeks 1-7, before a large enough sample size of games have been played, I have to use estimations to fill in the gaps. Starting Week 8 I no longer use estimates as I feel the sample size is large enough to use 100% 2015 results. But variance will be there the next few weeks. My model really starts to show its worth around Week 11 or so.
Based on previous history, Method 2 is stronger in the first half of the year, and Method 1 comes around the 2nd half of the year.
This is just for sides, I will analyze totals later today or tomorrow.
But Method 5 is the one I am keeping an eye on. It's my baby, its the simulator I designed in the offseason. It's the first year I have used it. Here is how it has done when it gives cover % of 60% or greater, and 76% or greater.
Method 5 is 20-7 this year ATS when it gives a cover % of 76.0% or higher.
HOWEVER... this is all based on the Weeks 1-7. Starting with Week 8(this week) my model calculates everything differently. Weeks 1-7, before a large enough sample size of games have been played, I have to use estimations to fill in the gaps. Starting Week 8 I no longer use estimates as I feel the sample size is large enough to use 100% 2015 results. But variance will be there the next few weeks. My model really starts to show its worth around Week 11 or so.
Based on previous history, Method 2 is stronger in the first half of the year, and Method 1 comes around the 2nd half of the year.
This is just for sides, I will analyze totals later today or tomorrow.
Posted on 10/19/15 at 4:35 pm to accnodefense
So are these plays (you listed them on pg 2) from Method 5?
quote:
Western Kentucky +14.5 & +16.5
Appalachian State -5
East Carolina -2.5
Utah State -5
Wake Forest +10
Vandy +2.5
Navy -22
Boise State -31
Illinois +7
Houston -20.5
Florida International -15
Arkansas -5
Washington State +7.5
Posted on 10/19/15 at 4:45 pm to bamaatlsu
quote:
So are these plays (you listed them on pg 2) from Method 5?
Yes - Those plays were all over 73.1% on Method 5 with universal agreement(meaning Methods 1 and 2 also picked those sides)
Over 73.1% and universal agreement is 16-5 ATS this year. But keep in mind starting this week the model is no longer influenced by preseason rating estimates so the data being fed into the model is a bit different.
I am still riding it though, the data isn't too much different, and the simulator is the same. If anything it should be more accurate since preseason estimates are no longer inflating teams(like it was for Kansas State) or dragging teams down(like it was for Bowling Green and Iowa). Bowling Green went from #92 to #31 alone, because it had the preseason estimate of #108 dragging it down. Iowa had a preseason estimate of #84 dragging it down.
Posted on 10/19/15 at 6:30 pm to accnodefense
Got a feeling Utah is the sucker's bet. They are the number three team in the country while USC is 3-3 and Utah is getting points. Add in the fact the public is on Utah early and the line has moved from 3 to 3.5. Something not adding up.
Posted on 10/19/15 at 9:10 pm to Allthatfades
Houston -21.
This seems like another trap bet but last weeks bet did too and I won. Will go heavy again on UH.
Also betting:
Memphis -11
Navy -23(auto fade Tulane)
Southern Miss -16
Marshall -29
Boise st -31
This seems like another trap bet but last weeks bet did too and I won. Will go heavy again on UH.
Also betting:
Memphis -11
Navy -23(auto fade Tulane)
Southern Miss -16
Marshall -29
Boise st -31
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