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re: OFFICIAL Week 6 CFB Betting Thread - Bring back the dcrews magic

Posted on 10/4/14 at 12:30 am to
Posted by Double Oh
Louisiana
Member since Sep 2008
24123 posts
Posted on 10/4/14 at 12:30 am to
he was 9/24 are u freakin kidding me? fawkin horrible
Posted by Signature
Omnipresent
Member since Sep 2005
6741 posts
Posted on 10/4/14 at 3:32 am to
Not a bad night.

3/4 unit on Angels (and my MLB woes continue) -Loss
1 unit on Utah St +21 easssssy money - Win
1 unit on Fresno State -3 cash -Win
3/4 unit on WTA Marie Sherapove (because I'm bored) -pending

I really should stick to CFB.


Tomorrow's card looks TURRIBLE for me. I bit on all of the early lines and I'm sitting in some bad spots. The last few days as I've looked into the matchups I'm starting to think we could see 4-5 Top 10 teams drop. I don't like my lines, but I'm riding them. This could get ugly for me, but in full disclosure:

ULL -15.5
ECU -38
Wisky -10
USCe- 7
BAMA -5.5
A&M +1
Sparty -9
LSU ML

I rather be lucky then good ( I'll need it)
Worst capping I've done all year.

Leggggoo!
This post was edited on 10/4/14 at 3:52 am
Posted by kidbourbon
Member since Jul 2009
1306 posts
Posted on 10/4/14 at 4:17 am to
My favorite plays this Saturday:
South Carolina
Baylor
South Alabama
TAMU
Wisconsin
Posted by kidbourbon
Member since Jul 2009
1306 posts
Posted on 10/4/14 at 4:28 am to
quote:

Sometimes Vegas likes to give us gifts. The Gambling Gods can be kind from time to time


Vegas gives a handful of gifts every college football season. I could rattle off a few. One that sticks out in my mind was Ohio U-7.5 at New Mexico State in 2011. I put eight hundy on that -- a very large amount for me -- and was so confident in the result I didn't even bother watching the game.

Ohio won by 20.

Alabama-4 @ Ole Miss in 2009 is another.
FSU-12.5 at Pittsburgh last season is another.
Posted by kidbourbon
Member since Jul 2009
1306 posts
Posted on 10/4/14 at 4:31 am to
quote:

EMU is probably the worst team in FBS (they would lose to SMU). Akron is laying 21 and it's probably not enough.


They are COMFORTABLY the worst team in the FBS. Keep fading them.
Posted by kidbourbon
Member since Jul 2009
1306 posts
Posted on 10/4/14 at 4:49 am to
quote:

You're not going to like my answer, but Vegas is likely inviting money on UCLA because they think Utah covers...


I'm not of the opinion that "Vegas" *ever* does this.
Posted by kidbourbon
Member since Jul 2009
1306 posts
Posted on 10/4/14 at 4:50 am to
quote:

Yeah, I assumed it was something like that. No biggie.

As for why I think ASU beats USC? Mike Norvell (I think the best OC in the Pac-12) owns Sark and Wilcox, Mike Bercovici has a better arm than Taylor Kelly, and USC won't respect his running ability on the read option, just like UCLA last week. However, MN is going to allow him to run more this week after watching the BC film and they will gash USC. ASU's defense isn't as bad as they showed last week. Too many offensive plays for USC's defense to handle eventually wears them down. Basically, depth and coaching. Not saying ASU blows em out, but I think ASU will win.



1. I have ASU as my pick in my underdog league
2. I also have ASU ATS
Posted by kidbourbon
Member since Jul 2009
1306 posts
Posted on 10/4/14 at 4:59 am to
And the only weekday game I had was Louisville ATS. So, good start.

I'm really heavy on South Carolina. I threw down on them at -5, and then like an hour later the line moved to -3.5 So I threw down a little more at -3.5. I'm also on the South Carolina moneyline.


I'm second heaviest on Baylor and I'm also on the moneyline.

I'm third heaviest on South alabama and Wisconsin.

I'm also on TAMU ML, ND ATS, Arizona State ATS, and Tennessee.

Considering Oklahoma and perhaps Georgia Southern.

Posted by kidbourbon
Member since Jul 2009
1306 posts
Posted on 10/4/14 at 5:00 am to
I'm going to throw down a 3 or 4 game parlay on some combination of the above. Likely a three gamer. And I'm going to win that motherfricking parlay.
Posted by tigerNation09
New Orleans PELICANS Fan
Member since Nov 2008
12977 posts
Posted on 10/4/14 at 5:48 am to
ECU -27 fh
AM +125
Akron -25
Baylor fh -8
FSU -23 fh
Alabama ml
Texas state -17
Posted by RoyBoy2323
Slabtown
Member since Oct 2004
3241 posts
Posted on 10/4/14 at 6:40 am to
A buddy of mine uses a thing online called Prediction Machine, just like anything, its not perfect but has been pretty good the last 2 years. His lock of the week for CFB today is as follow

Mich vs Rut OVER 45.5
LSU vs Auburn OVER 57.5
Okla vs TCU UNDER 57
Posted by blades8088
Covington
Member since Nov 2008
4298 posts
Posted on 10/4/14 at 8:55 am to
Morning Ladies
Posted by DallasTiger45
Member since May 2012
8782 posts
Posted on 10/4/14 at 9:07 am to
quote:

You're not going to like my answer, but Vegas is likely inviting money on UCLA because they think Utah covers... I'm not of the opinion that "Vegas" *ever* does this.


I mean it's not really debatable that books take positions on games. Whether or not you agree with a position is up to you.
Posted by blades8088
Covington
Member since Nov 2008
4298 posts
Posted on 10/4/14 at 9:11 am to
quote:

I mean it's not really debatable that books take positions on games. Whether or not you agree with a position is up to you


Someone that doesn't agree with this doesnt have a chance gambling
Posted by rocket31
Member since Jan 2008
41887 posts
Posted on 10/4/14 at 9:12 am to
Yeah, the notion that Vegas splits all games evenly is one of the biggest myths in life.

I, mean, they do, at times. But if they see an advantage in a game they will exploit it. It's a difference in millions of dollars. And they only need to be right more than they are wrong... Which obviously they are
Posted by Zipfer2022
Member since Nov 2011
3757 posts
Posted on 10/4/14 at 9:17 am to
On Mooooo St -2 this morning. 3/3 of the pro handicappers I monitor are on it. I've only seen this happen once and it was when Maryland blew out Cuse earlier in the year. Plus, any team that comes into Death Valley and whoops up on LSU is legit IMO.

2-0 last night but when am I going to learn to sprinkle moneylines on large dogs?
This post was edited on 10/4/14 at 9:18 am
Posted by bamafan425
Jackson's Hole
Member since Jan 2009
25716 posts
Posted on 10/4/14 at 9:47 am to
I've had the exact argument so many times on the SEC rant in the past years about books taking a position.

I gave up on that place though.
Posted by rocket31
Member since Jan 2008
41887 posts
Posted on 10/4/14 at 9:51 am to
Good idea
Posted by Louie T
Member since Dec 2006
36710 posts
Posted on 10/4/14 at 9:53 am to
I had this argument on the MSB often within the last couple of years; there were multiple people staunchy arguing that "Vegas doesn't take risk" and "they're solely in it to collect juice".
Posted by wish i was tebow
The Golf Board
Member since Feb 2009
46124 posts
Posted on 10/4/14 at 9:57 am to
I have Ecu 1h ecu game
Marshall and 1 other team in the morning session. Gonna have to go look then edit

Edit:

Besides a dumb parlay those are my only noon games.



I'm outside watching game day on the glorious morning
This post was edited on 10/4/14 at 9:59 am
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