re: OFFICIAL Week 5 CFB Betting Thread

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Before totals were released this week I had four games on the whole board where I circled for totals, WF/UL was one of the unders I liked from a pure statistical standpoint. The number came out way too low for me to see any value in it so I passed. Not trying to tell you the under will hit because it may not, but there are definite statistical reasonings behind the number. Both teams defense's are better than the offenses, specifically on the line of scrimmage.

I run line of scrimmage numbers in which I divide sacks by pass attempts and tackles for loss by rush attempts to get "raw numbers" for how good a teams pass protection and run blocking is on both sides of the ball.

Rankings (Out of 128 teams, 128 being the worst)
Wake Forest
Pass Protect - 117
Run Block - 127
Pass Rush - 38
Run Stuff - 43

Louisville
Pass Protect - 105
Run Block - 98
Pass Rush - 31
Run Stuff - 25


Once again these numbers are raw (not strength of schedule adjusted) and they are a very simple rating of the line of scrimmage, but I often use it as an indicator. In this case both defensive line numbers dominate the offensive side of the ball, you often get a very sloppy game when I see a mismatch this big. Think USF/UConn last Friday night, it had similar numbers.

Also both teams like to Air it Out (both are in the Top 30 in the country in pass attempt %), while both defensive units have been strong against the Pass.

Just my two cents I don't have a play in the game.

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