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1
Posted on 9/26/14 at 11:30 am to goldennugget
New Mexico +4.5 tonight
Posted on 9/26/14 at 11:35 am to hendersonshands
quote:
What's the lock of the weekend?
Temple, Texas St, and Auburn are my favorite sides.
I like Illinois catching 21 points @ Nebraska as well. Nebraska has a big lookahead game with Michigan St. next week.
Posted on 9/26/14 at 11:39 am to dgtiger3
I still like Boston College under 10 or just play the 1h at 5.5. Don't see how they don't beat Colorado state by a few scores
Posted on 9/26/14 at 11:46 am to MillerMan
Still eyeballing New Mexico myself but you can get them at +5.5
Posted on 9/26/14 at 11:49 am to goldennugget
quote:
Still eyeballing New Mexico myself but you can get them at +5.5
Yeah I'm on New Mexico +5.5 and ODU -3 tonight.
Posted on 9/26/14 at 11:50 am to Billy Mays
quote:
Auburn
Like Auburn and Wisconsin. Very big numbers, but La Tech and South Florida are both dog shite. Shouldn't be very difficult for each team to score at will in these games and both have pretty solid defenses.
Posted on 9/26/14 at 1:35 pm to goldennugget
quote:
Still eyeballing New Mexico myself but you can get them at +5.5
Where?
Posted on 9/26/14 at 1:44 pm to PurpleAndGold86
Didnt realize la tech was terrible, that must have just happened
Posted on 9/26/14 at 1:45 pm to bamafan425
quote:
Morning matches didn't go as planned for the easy money.
Gave Europe -185 as the lock of the week early in this thread. I stand by that.
Posted on 9/26/14 at 1:48 pm to josh336
quote:
Didnt realize la tech was terrible, that must have just happened
Sagarin has them ranked at 89 vs Auburn at 3.
Tech is 2-2 with losses at Oklahoma and at home against Northwestern State. 2 really powerful statement wins on the road against ULL and North Texas.
I guess you think that makes them good
This post was edited on 9/26/14 at 1:49 pm
Posted on 9/26/14 at 1:51 pm to PurpleAndGold86
Liking MTSU tonight with the 3. Anyone care to discuss?
Posted on 9/26/14 at 1:52 pm to PurpleAndGold86
Well they won at ULL and at North texas. I also dont consider a loss at oklahoma to count against them. They can score some points against less than great defenses. Guess im just not seeing laying all those points against that offense.
Posted on 9/26/14 at 1:56 pm to josh336
quote:
Well they won at ULL and at North texas.
Neither of these means anything at all.
quote:
I also dont consider a loss at oklahoma to count against them.
I don't hold it against them, but they lost that game by 32. It isn't like it was close.
quote:
They can score some points against less than great defenses.
I like Auburn's defense.
quote:
Guess im just not seeing laying all those points against that offense.
To each their own. Obviously, there is going to be different opinions on every single game on the card.
Posted on 9/26/14 at 2:36 pm to goldennugget
quote:
Excited that I hit on Texas Tech last night... OKST is overrated and will continue to be, good fade candidate
They had me sweating. They blew so many opps in the 1st half it was ridiculous. They are about the most under coached team in the country. Kliff spent more time on his hair last night than the gameplan. Okie St's pts came from chunk them down the field and let these Tech DB's do their thing. Lolzz
Shouldn't have been that close to, but it still counts.
I saw someone post Texas St, I'm already on them. I'll have to look at my card and update the thread, but nothing really exciting this weekend.
Posted on 9/26/14 at 3:11 pm to 4LSU2
quote:
Baylor -21
I actually put a unit on Iowa State +22. Fading Baylor on the road (against a team not named Buffalo).
Posted on 9/26/14 at 3:19 pm to Signature
Hey guys been lurking here all week so thought I'd post my plays thus far. tailing you guys on Temple for sure.
SoCarolina -6 2u
Duke +7.5 2u
Temple -5 2u
6pt 2 team teaser:
SoCarolina Pick
Notre Dame -4
4u
adding others later tonight
SoCarolina -6 2u
Duke +7.5 2u
Temple -5 2u
6pt 2 team teaser:
SoCarolina Pick
Notre Dame -4
4u
adding others later tonight
Posted on 9/26/14 at 3:48 pm to YumYum Sauce
The over/under for Louisville/Wake Forest was 41. Seemed pretty low for me. Two pretty good defenses and two pretty good to decent offenses. In 5 of the 7 games both teams were involved in this year, they would have covered that total. Just didn't seem like that many points so I took the over. What do you think?
Just a thought here. The last three times I have taken the favorite (10 to 20 pts), I have lost due to the dog fighting the whole game and the favorite pretty much taking it easy and sitting on a lead in the fourth quarter. Has cost me all three times. Last night, for example, I'm sitting pretty with Ok St (line at -14.5 and they have a 17 point lead) with about half the fourth quarter gone. Ok St flubs the kickoff (mother!), T Tech proceeds to score (now a 10 point difference), and once Ok St. gets the ball back they essentially sit on it and work the clock. The game ends with a 10 pt spread. I'm starting to lean toward the dogs in games with spreads in the 10 - 20 point range for this reason. Any thoughts?
Just a thought here. The last three times I have taken the favorite (10 to 20 pts), I have lost due to the dog fighting the whole game and the favorite pretty much taking it easy and sitting on a lead in the fourth quarter. Has cost me all three times. Last night, for example, I'm sitting pretty with Ok St (line at -14.5 and they have a 17 point lead) with about half the fourth quarter gone. Ok St flubs the kickoff (mother!), T Tech proceeds to score (now a 10 point difference), and once Ok St. gets the ball back they essentially sit on it and work the clock. The game ends with a 10 pt spread. I'm starting to lean toward the dogs in games with spreads in the 10 - 20 point range for this reason. Any thoughts?
Posted on 9/26/14 at 4:09 pm to jim712
quote:
The over/under for Louisville/Wake Forest was 41. Seemed pretty low for me. Two pretty good defenses and two pretty good to decent offenses. In 5 of the 7 games both teams were involved in this year, they would have covered that total. Just didn't seem like that many points so I took the over. What do you think?
Before totals were released this week I had four games on the whole board where I circled for totals, WF/UL was one of the unders I liked from a pure statistical standpoint. The number came out way too low for me to see any value in it so I passed. Not trying to tell you the under will hit because it may not, but there are definite statistical reasonings behind the number. Both teams defense's are better than the offenses, specifically on the line of scrimmage.
I run line of scrimmage numbers in which I divide sacks by pass attempts and tackles for loss by rush attempts to get "raw numbers" for how good a teams pass protection and run blocking is on both sides of the ball.
Rankings (Out of 128 teams, 128 being the worst)
Wake Forest
Pass Protect - 117
Run Block - 127
Pass Rush - 38
Run Stuff - 43
Louisville
Pass Protect - 105
Run Block - 98
Pass Rush - 31
Run Stuff - 25
Once again these numbers are raw (not strength of schedule adjusted) and they are a very simple rating of the line of scrimmage, but I often use it as an indicator. In this case both defensive line numbers dominate the offensive side of the ball, you often get a very sloppy game when I see a mismatch this big. Think USF/UConn last Friday night, it had similar numbers.
Also both teams like to Air it Out (both are in the Top 30 in the country in pass attempt %), while both defensive units have been strong against the Pass.
Just my two cents I don't have a play in the game.
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