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re: OFFICIAL Week 5 CFB Betting Thread

Posted on 9/25/14 at 2:30 pm to
Posted by PurpleAndGold86
Member since Jun 2012
11036 posts
Posted on 9/25/14 at 2:30 pm to
quote:

I've been on ASU all season, I feel like they have been overlooked

Just playing devil's advocate here because UCLA has been even worse ATS, but ASU has been bad ATS this year (1-2).
Posted by ChemE in the OP
The Flats
Member since Apr 2011
6382 posts
Posted on 9/25/14 at 2:33 pm to
quote:

Just playing devil's advocate here because UCLA has been even worse ATS, but ASU has been bad ATS this year (1-2).


Heck, that's why I'm on the ASU ML....
Posted by dgtiger3
Prairieville
Member since Sep 2005
5702 posts
Posted on 9/25/14 at 2:34 pm to
quote:

Just playing devil's advocate here because UCLA has been even worse ATS, but ASU has been bad ATS this year (1-2).


I covered with ASU at (-13.5) vs Colorado and (-24) vs New Mexico.


EDIT: just looked again, I bought 1.5 points to get that number against Colorado. (-140)
This post was edited on 9/25/14 at 2:36 pm
Posted by PurpleAndGold86
Member since Jun 2012
11036 posts
Posted on 9/25/14 at 2:47 pm to
quote:

EDIT: just looked again, I bought 1.5 points to get that number against Colorado. (-140)

I was going to say you must have bought that line down a whole lot. I had them -16 and they would have covered that if it wasn't for Taylor Kelly getting hurt in the 3rd quarter.

Like I said, I'm sure ASU is probably the right side, I just can't bring myself to actually bet it without Taylor Kelly. Without him that offense looked very different.

Cash must be flowing in on Arizona State. Line down to +3.
Posted by Billy Mays
Member since Jan 2009
25504 posts
Posted on 9/25/14 at 3:36 pm to
The public is out for blood bc UCLA has cost them a lot of units this season
Posted by PurpleAndGold86
Member since Jun 2012
11036 posts
Posted on 9/25/14 at 3:37 pm to
Posted by au21tigers
Thursday
Member since Nov 2009
12548 posts
Posted on 9/25/14 at 3:40 pm to
quote:

I'm on the ASU ML....


Thinking about it.
Posted by dgtiger3
Prairieville
Member since Sep 2005
5702 posts
Posted on 9/25/14 at 3:50 pm to
quote:

Whats your thoughts on BG? Power Rankings have them being a 16 pt favorite without homefield figured in. Line opened and 10.5 and is now down to 4.5. I cant seem to figure out what Im missing here.


Havent looked much into that game specifically but someone has to be hurt or something I would imagine, I have BG around 7.5 pt favorites.

quote:

DG or anyone else,

Curious if you've come up with your own models/sheets that you run every weekend or if you're using a combo of different models pulled from sites.

I'd really like to figure out a method based more in statistics/mathematics but not quite sure where to start...


I do use most of my own models but their are some other good websites out there for information.

FootballOutsiders.com is a great source of information and a lot of there theories and metrics are similar to the things I look at.

TeamRankings.com is another good source for information and have Power Rankings for 10 different categories that I use from time to time.

cfbstats.com is the most in-depth source of college football stats I have ever found, easy to copy and paste into excel which is why I use this site for pulling my own stats.
Posted by DFWAggie09
DFW
Member since Oct 2011
1487 posts
Posted on 9/25/14 at 4:10 pm to
Posted by lsutgrfan10
Member since Jun 2011
276 posts
Posted on 9/25/14 at 4:51 pm to
Couple games that hit key #s today

Cincy +17 @ Ohio St
Memphis +21 @ Ole Miss

Looking at taking the points in both. Anybody wanna tell me why I shouldn't?
Posted by Double Oh
Louisiana
Member since Sep 2008
22088 posts
Posted on 9/25/14 at 5:13 pm to
Ga Southern now at -17


hit they were -19.5 this morning
Posted by MillerMan
West U, Houston, TX
Member since Aug 2010
6513 posts
Posted on 9/25/14 at 5:15 pm to
Tx tech +14.5
Posted by Signature
Omnipresent
Member since Sep 2005
6739 posts
Posted on 9/25/14 at 5:21 pm to
quote:

Tx tech +14.5
quote:

Tx tech +14.5
Posted by IceColdBeer
Sunbathing in Mission Beach
Member since Jan 2014
1076 posts
Posted on 9/25/14 at 5:59 pm to
Strange things happen in the Desert at Night


ASU +3

110 win 100
Posted by blades8088
Covington
Member since Nov 2008
4254 posts
Posted on 9/25/14 at 5:59 pm to
TT/OSU U70. Let's start this week off right
Posted by blades8088
Covington
Member since Nov 2008
4254 posts
Posted on 9/25/14 at 6:00 pm to
I like Memphis. Hoping Ole Miss has a little bit of a look ahead at Bama. Not a turrible Memphis team either
This post was edited on 9/25/14 at 6:01 pm
Posted by ChemE in the OP
The Flats
Member since Apr 2011
6382 posts
Posted on 9/25/14 at 6:06 pm to
quote:

Strange things happen in the Desert at Night


Where Heisman hopes that are already dead come to be more dead?
Posted by IceColdBeer
Sunbathing in Mission Beach
Member since Jan 2014
1076 posts
Posted on 9/25/14 at 6:11 pm to
Yes Sir.

Posted by NOLA1128
Member since Dec 2011
3702 posts
Posted on 9/25/14 at 6:22 pm to
My plays tonight:

Georgia Southern -16.5
Georgia Southern/Appy State U62.5
Texas Tech +14.5
Texas Tech/Oklahoma State O68.5
Arizona State ML
Arizona State/UCLA U65.5
Posted by NOLA1128
Member since Dec 2011
3702 posts
Posted on 9/25/14 at 10:54 pm to
quote:

Georgia Southern -16.5 - W
Georgia Southern/Appy State U62.5 - W
Texas Tech +14.5 - W
Texas Tech/Oklahoma State O68.5 - W
Arizona State ML
Arizona State/UCLA U65.5


Not liking the chances of those last two.
But that's alright, profitable NCAAFB night no matter what.
That'll make up for my 0-2 NFL night lol
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