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Started By
Message
re: OFFICIAL Week 5 CFB bet thread™
Posted on 9/23/12 at 8:33 pm to dcrews
Posted on 9/23/12 at 8:33 pm to dcrews
quote:
Fair enough. You have any reason as to why the spread is at 29?
The spread is at 29 because Wazzu sucks. It is possible that maybe Oregon is a different team away from Autzen, but Wazzu just lost to Colorado who is equally awful. What I would be afraid of here is a backdoor cover by Wazzu in garbage time. The best bet here is probably going to be Oregon 1H actually.
0
Posted on 9/23/12 at 8:33 pm to 1fairbank
The Mizzou bet seems tempting, but they will have to travel out of their timezone for the 2nd week in a row. I don't like when teams have to do that, let alone back to back weeks.
Posted on 9/23/12 at 8:34 pm to Ford Frenzy
quote:
Because the only reason Oregon looked so good last week is because literally everything went right for them and wrong for Arizona, that won't happen every week
Right. Most would probably take Oregon at -29. WAZZU looks terrible on defense and their online will get raped.
Posted on 9/23/12 at 8:35 pm to bisonduck
Yea all the MSB squares will load up on Oregon just like they did Wash St last week..
Posted on 9/23/12 at 8:42 pm to Ford Frenzy
quote:
Yea all the MSB squares will load up on Oregon just like they did Wash St last week..
I would probably not put money on Oregon. WAZZU might give up so many points so quickly that their first string offense will be going against our 3s and 4s. Chip doesn't care keeping the score low.
This post was edited on 9/23/12 at 8:47 pm
Posted on 9/23/12 at 8:44 pm to dcrews
quote:
The Mizzou bet seems tempting, but they will have to travel out of their timezone for the 2nd week in a row. I don't like when teams have to do that, let alone back to back weeks.
granted UCF is good this year, not just good for them.. but good
UCF always does work at home, but this should be more a PK than anything else.. the line is gonna drop quick
Posted on 9/23/12 at 8:46 pm to Ford Frenzy
quote:
Yea all the MSB squares will load up on Oregon just like they did Wash St last week..
care to take a personal wager otherwise?
Via paypal acct?
Posted on 9/23/12 at 8:57 pm to aVatiger
I'll have plenty on the line already but if you wanna bet I'd love to book all of yours, if that wasnt illegal
This post was edited on 9/23/12 at 8:57 pm
Posted on 9/23/12 at 9:06 pm to Ford Frenzy
Ahhhhhhh shite!!!!!
Here we go doc holiday style!!!
<---------
Here we go doc holiday style!!!
<---------
Posted on 9/23/12 at 9:45 pm to wish i was tebow
Hey let's make some money this week. The alternative sucks arse. So let's stick with making money. Cool?
Posted on 9/23/12 at 9:47 pm to okietiger
If it weren't for LSU I would have made good money.
I will honestly probably be betting some Ryder cup matchups this week.
I will honestly probably be betting some Ryder cup matchups this week.
Posted on 9/23/12 at 10:03 pm to TigerTatorTots
Ok so here is the 2nd half system I've been tracking on covers... Not mine so don't shoot the messenger. Yesterday I went 4-2 testing it. As with any system you should use a flat bet and bet every play for it to be profitable in the long term. I also used it tonight for over 24 in pats game. Totals seem to work better than sides.... Possibly but need more data.
Yesterday it went 23-11-2 in CFB
Here is some stuff I copied to summarize:
System
You are looking for there to be a 10+ point difference or more between the expected and actual 2nd half lines as compared to the pure game total. The bigger the difference the better with 13 showing a superior statistical significance
You take who covered in the first half. If the favorite covered you take them again. If the underdog covers you take them. If the game is under you go under again and if the game goes over you go over in the 2H. Remember for their to be a 10 point or greater middle at the half, the game is way off the original line. Thus we look for that to continue. Maybe the favorite is far superior than they thought. Or maybe the underdOg is more competitive than they thought before the game started.
23-11-2 yesterday
Examples
Steelers@oakland
Full Game odds were Steelers -3.5 and 45
At the half, steelers 17-14
2H lines should be Oakland +.5 and 14
2H lines are Oakland +1.5 and 22.5
Thus we have
NO PLAYS!!!
Houston@denver
Full Game odds were Houston -1.5 and 43.5
At the half, Houston 21-11
2H lines should be Houston +8.5 and 11.5
2H lines are Houston Pk and 22
Thus we have over 22
Yesterday it went 23-11-2 in CFB
Here is some stuff I copied to summarize:
System
You are looking for there to be a 10+ point difference or more between the expected and actual 2nd half lines as compared to the pure game total. The bigger the difference the better with 13 showing a superior statistical significance
You take who covered in the first half. If the favorite covered you take them again. If the underdog covers you take them. If the game is under you go under again and if the game goes over you go over in the 2H. Remember for their to be a 10 point or greater middle at the half, the game is way off the original line. Thus we look for that to continue. Maybe the favorite is far superior than they thought. Or maybe the underdOg is more competitive than they thought before the game started.
23-11-2 yesterday
Examples
Steelers@oakland
Full Game odds were Steelers -3.5 and 45
At the half, steelers 17-14
2H lines should be Oakland +.5 and 14
2H lines are Oakland +1.5 and 22.5
Thus we have
NO PLAYS!!!
Houston@denver
Full Game odds were Houston -1.5 and 43.5
At the half, Houston 21-11
2H lines should be Houston +8.5 and 11.5
2H lines are Houston Pk and 22
Thus we have over 22
Posted on 9/23/12 at 10:08 pm to DaBeerz
Hmmmm
Seems logical
Seems logical
Posted on 9/23/12 at 10:13 pm to wish i was tebow
I love LSU but I won a hell of a lot on auburn and under, there is nothing wrong with taking points when it's clear a team is giving too many
Posted on 9/23/12 at 10:14 pm to wish i was tebow
So the Mighty FSU was 14pt favs at home to a highly ranked Clemson team and now they are only a 14pt road Fav against USF?
That sure doesn't seem like a trap
That sure doesn't seem like a trap
Posted on 9/23/12 at 10:15 pm to DaBeerz
Posted on 9/23/12 at 10:16 pm to Ford Frenzy
Do you want me to pat your on the back for getting one game right??
Posted on 9/23/12 at 10:16 pm to SDVTiger
The announcers were talking about that (to an extent, obviously not about the future line) last night when the game nearly over.
Emotional win at home, in the lights, against a top 15 team and now you have to go on the road feeling invincible. On paper (and in my mind) FSU should beat the dog shite out of USF, but I also thought a lot of things yesterday that went the complete opposite way.
Emotional win at home, in the lights, against a top 15 team and now you have to go on the road feeling invincible. On paper (and in my mind) FSU should beat the dog shite out of USF, but I also thought a lot of things yesterday that went the complete opposite way.
Posted on 9/23/12 at 10:18 pm to dcrews
I still think FSU will cover but I don't think it will be as easy as people are thinking. FSU just scores to many points and has a solid d
Posted on 9/23/12 at 10:19 pm to dcrews
BJ Daniels might beat FSU again
They always lay a dud and that game reeks of a trap in the spreads only 14
They always lay a dud and that game reeks of a trap in the spreads only 14
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