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Started By
Message
2
Posted on 11/4/15 at 11:12 am to bamaatlsu
Looks like some money is coming in on Ohio for tonight. The line dropped from Bowling Green -21 to -20.
Posted on 11/4/15 at 11:26 am to jac1280
I thought you were leaning BG. This line drop seems like a good thing.
ETA: I see now where you already placed your bet at -20.5
ETA: I see now where you already placed your bet at -20.5
This post was edited on 11/4/15 at 11:27 am
Posted on 11/4/15 at 11:27 am to LSUShock
quote:
Same here. I haven't watched Cal much outside of their games vs Texas and Utah, but Oregon has proved the media right with how bad their defense has been. I mean that ASU game was an embarrassment.
I think everyone has cooled off on Goff after a hot start, but he is still a solid QB. I'm not a big statistical gambler as I go more off my own eye test, but Oregon is nearly dead last (T123) in pass D and Cal is a top 20 passing team. Cal will definitely be able to keep up if they have to and Vernon Adam's isn't good enough to just run away with the game
Bet the over, if you're betting the game at all. The only problem with that is Goff can't hold the ball in rain. Likewise, Cal's run defense is terrible and Freeman will have a field day and maybe we can chew some clock.
This post was edited on 11/4/15 at 11:31 am
Posted on 11/4/15 at 11:28 am to bamaatlsu
I locked in BG -20.5 early this morning at -120. It was still at -21 and I was worried it would go up, so I bought the half point. With 78% of the tickets on BG, the line should not be dropping.
Posted on 11/4/15 at 2:09 pm to dcrews
Definitely a "feel" based lean, but this week brings a new factor into play: teams performances influenced by the CFP ratings.
One that definitely has my eye is TCU. I'm sure plenty of eyebrows were raised when that #8 CFP ranking was announced. Okie St is also undefeated, sure, but Gary Patterson has shown that he'll play for keeps in order to make a point (see last year's Peach Bowl and this year's win over Texas, just to name two).
Could this week's CFP snub presage a double-digit TCU win in Stillwater this week?
One that definitely has my eye is TCU. I'm sure plenty of eyebrows were raised when that #8 CFP ranking was announced. Okie St is also undefeated, sure, but Gary Patterson has shown that he'll play for keeps in order to make a point (see last year's Peach Bowl and this year's win over Texas, just to name two).
Could this week's CFP snub presage a double-digit TCU win in Stillwater this week?
Posted on 11/4/15 at 2:15 pm to ffhouston
quote:
Could this week's CFP snub presage a double-digit TCU win in Stillwater this week?
I am staying away from that game. Oklahoma State's run game sucks which is good news for TCU's young linebackers, but this will be the best defense TCU has faced so far.
Posted on 11/4/15 at 2:22 pm to Chuckiee
I'm taking Tulane assuming Lee plays. Been pretty good betting on/against them this year. UConn shouldn't be giving 6 on the road to anyone. Good buy low sell high spot. Tulane been getting their asses handed to them for a month but it was against some tough competition and a couple times without their Starting QB. UConn coming off their best win of the season but I really don't think they can score like they did against ECU two games in a row.
Posted on 11/4/15 at 5:02 pm to D011ahbi11
Indiana +7. Fading Iowa for the second week in a row. Not sold on them at all, especially laying a TD with their conservative offense. Sudfeld is capable of a backdoor cover if it comes down to that.
Posted on 11/4/15 at 5:04 pm to accnodefense
How do you formulate that? Through a program?
Posted on 11/4/15 at 6:35 pm to bamaatlsu
quote:
No read on UConn/Tulane either way, but I do know Tulane has covered the last two weeks (they're on my auto-fade list )
Tulane has stuck it to me twice the last two weeks with back door covers. I don't know WTF they were thinking this first half of last week's game coming out like they did.
Posted on 11/4/15 at 7:56 pm to bisonduck
Locked in
Ohio +16.5
Kansas State +17.5
SMU +14.5
Buffalo -3
Mississippi State -8
Ohio +16.5
Kansas State +17.5
SMU +14.5
Buffalo -3
Mississippi State -8
Posted on 11/4/15 at 8:01 pm to accnodefense
I know you usually post a link, but I have not seen it in this thread yet. Are you going to post a link to your models?
Posted on 11/4/15 at 8:06 pm to hawgfaninc
Oh sweet, missed XP. I'm sure that won't end up mattering to my -21...
Posted on 11/4/15 at 8:18 pm to JG77056
I got the +16.5 during live betting. wish I would have got in at +21 :(
Posted on 11/4/15 at 8:19 pm to CBP3110
Previous page
Posted on 11/4/15 at 8:26 pm to accnodefense
Accno, where on the sheets is the number that you rely on? The pct of times it agrees or something... I remember you saying that anything over 70% usually hits.
Posted on 11/4/15 at 8:33 pm to JG77056
I have fricking Bowling Green -20.5. I'm gonna be pissed if that missed XP loses me the cover
Posted on 11/4/15 at 9:38 pm to jac1280
I think I may hedge the next chance I get. I just have a bad feeling Ohio will backdoor cover this.
I know that's not "gambling"
but whatever. I'm not liking how easy Ohio moves the ball in BG.
I know that's not "gambling"
but whatever. I'm not liking how easy Ohio moves the ball in BG.This post was edited on 11/4/15 at 9:40 pm
Posted on 11/4/15 at 10:07 pm to jac1280
Got the 2nd half parlayed at -7.5 BG and over 32.5
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