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re: OFFICIAL Week 1 College Football Bet Thread
Posted on 9/1/15 at 2:10 am to BeYou
Posted on 9/1/15 at 2:10 am to BeYou
Not sure if it's been mentioned but I know I read earlier in the thread people wanted to fade Savannah State and someone said line wouldn't be up until Saturday
Line is on 5dimes right now. Colorado St -49
Line is on 5dimes right now. Colorado St -49
0
Posted on 9/1/15 at 2:24 am to BeYou
quote:
I think Marquise Williams and that offense will be a T20 offense this season.
Marquise Williams seems to get plenty of love, but I always thought he is pretty overrated. Especially when he has to face solid defenses. There have been times, like last years game at Miami, where he has looked even completely inept.
He does say now that he is as healthy as he has been since high school, but it's a pretty tough game to cap especially with the uncertainty at QB for USC. Who knows how Mitch will play?
Posted on 9/1/15 at 2:34 am to HoLeInOnEr05
quote:
Northern Illinois will be my largest and possibly only play this week.
What's your reasoning? I'm staying away from UNLV the first few weeks b/c nobody really has a clue how this team will play under Tony Sanchez. They could come out like Montana the other day or they could be terrible.
Posted on 9/1/15 at 8:43 am to Zipfer2022
quote:
Marquise Williams seems to get plenty of love, but I always thought he is pretty overrated. Especially when he has to face solid defenses. There have been times, like last years game at Miami, where he has looked even completely inept.
I use a lot of Bill Connelly stats. He had them as the 25th best offense last year.
I think the offense was inconsistent last year. It didn't necessarily come against great defenses. They scored 35 points against at Clemson and 28 against Virginia - both were Top 20 defenses according to S&P ratings.
Then again, the offense did look inept against Virginia Tech, Miami, and NC State. That does leave the question though - will this offense be more consistent with another year under its belt with basically the same starters.
The best move is probably no play as I don't feel strong enough.
Posted on 9/1/15 at 9:28 am to BeYou
I see alot of you guys doing tons of research and spreadsheets and formulas and stuff... i literally look at the games, cap them in my head what i believe they should be. Then look at what the spread is and bet based off of that 
Posted on 9/1/15 at 9:30 am to ChemE in the OP
quote:
I'll stand with the big money and/or books and see what happens.
This worked well for us last year, even though I got off on a few heavy public teams and messed up. Told myself I wasn't going to do that this year but am already tempted with TCU.
Guess ill just take it one day at a time.
For Thursday I am liking UNC, even though I have the same worries that one has above. Cooper is a concern of tearing up the UNC D but how effective will Mitch be getting him the ball? Mitch may be a work in progress and may not do as much damage as everyone thinks.
I do like Central Michigan the thing that concerns me with them as many of these week 1 picks is the experience that Okie Lite returns. Which is something that I believe I and most of the public overvalues.
I also like Utah. Utah year in and year out impress me at home and return very good key starters. Utah is a very aggressive team when playing night home games
Posted on 9/1/15 at 9:44 am to oleyeller
Wish I had more time to do research this year. Im just so hectic with school right now. Didnt do any prepping for the year as I usually do so im scrambling now to see what starters are back and so forth
Posted on 9/1/15 at 9:48 am to blades8088
quote:
already tempted with TCU.
i put 2 units on tcu -14. I can live with it if they dont cover, but i really dont know where minn is going to get offensive production.
Posted on 9/1/15 at 10:04 am to oleyeller
quote:
I see alot of you guys doing tons of research and spreadsheets and formulas and stuff... i literally look at the games, cap them in my head what i believe they should be. Then look at what the spread is and bet based off of that
Week 1 is always a crap shoot. It's not until around week 3 - 4 that I feel comfortable betting.
Posted on 9/1/15 at 10:15 am to BobRoss
quote:
quote:
I see alot of you guys doing tons of research and spreadsheets and formulas and stuff... i literally look at the games, cap them in my head what i believe they should be. Then look at what the spread is and bet based off of that
Week 1 is always a crap shoot. It's not until around week 3 - 4 that I feel comfortable betting.
100% agree here. But i cant pass on week 1 lol. I had to have some money rollin.. hopefully worst case i break even
Posted on 9/1/15 at 10:36 am to BobRoss
quote:
Week 1 is always a crap shoot. It's not until around week 3 - 4 that I feel comfortable betting.
thats backwards logic,
the first few weeks are where the books can most easily be exploited.
Posted on 9/1/15 at 10:36 am to blades8088
quote:
I do like Central Michigan the thing that concerns me with them as many of these week 1 picks is the experience that Okie Lite returns. Which is something that I believe I and most of the public overvalues.
They return 4 of 5 offensive lineman, a QB who started 3 games, and most of their receivers. The problem is they return nothing from the running game. They either need to find a RB that can produce or get it done by throwing it around a lot. The latter is not a good recipe for a Thursday Night road opener, especially with a QB who isn't THAT experienced.
Posted on 9/1/15 at 10:41 am to accnodefense
I agree, but RB is one of the easiest positions to fill with an experienced O line. QB should still struggle, as a couple of INTs will keep this one within the number. I will probably be on CMU this week.
This post was edited on 9/1/15 at 10:58 am
Posted on 9/1/15 at 10:47 am to accnodefense
oSu didn't really have a great runner last year either, so I doubt it would really affect them negatively. They have a JC guy they seem to really like, so it could possibly be an upgrade.
Posted on 9/1/15 at 10:50 am to accnodefense
He was good enough to force Daxx Garman to transfer, and they still have JW Walsh behind Rudolph.
Posted on 9/1/15 at 11:11 am to oleyeller
quote:
whyyyyyyyyyy
Minnesota was 5-1 at home last year with the only loss being 31-24 vs. Ohio St.
I always like home dogs but 14.5 seems like really good value for a team on the rise that usually plays well at home.
This opened at 19 and the sharps jumped all over it and pushed it all the way here. Obviously theres not as much value but I think it's still the right side
Eta: the public is backing TCU as expected. The line opened at -19 not -31.
This post was edited on 9/1/15 at 11:23 am
Posted on 9/1/15 at 11:17 am to icegator337
quote:
This opened at 31
Where did you get this from?
Posted on 9/1/15 at 11:20 am to blades8088
i dont see how anyone could have gotten it at 31. im on tcu -14 but dam if it were 31 i would have emptied the bank on minn
Posted on 9/1/15 at 11:22 am to blades8088
Sorry I was thinking about 2014 when they opened -10 against smu and closed -32. This year they opened -19, so the line still moved significantly
This post was edited on 9/1/15 at 11:22 am
Posted on 9/1/15 at 11:25 am to oleyeller
reverse line movement on Minnesota with 70% of public bets backing TCU
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