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OFFICIAL Week 1 College Football Bet Thread

Posted on 8/3/15 at 10:37 am
Posted by oleyeller
Vols, Bitch
Member since Oct 2012
32021 posts
Posted on 8/3/15 at 10:37 am
Lets get this season started off right guys! Hope everyone fills their pockets with cash this year. Lets get it rolling, who do you like with early lines.

Im in on tcu -14 vs minnesota right now, i see that line moving alot before gameday.

added notre dame -10 and penn state -6.5
This post was edited on 8/3/15 at 12:20 pm
Posted by UNO
Member since Mar 2015
4961 posts
Posted on 8/3/15 at 10:39 am to
I've gambled some in the past, but I think i'm going to make more of an effort this year. This thread should be fun!
Posted by wish i was tebow
The Golf Board
Member since Feb 2009
46121 posts
Posted on 8/3/15 at 10:39 am to
Was thinking this morning about making the thread.


I have not looked at week one lines yet. Fantasy football preparations for now
Posted by FulshearTiger
Member since Jul 2015
5275 posts
Posted on 8/3/15 at 10:42 am to
Arizona State +3.

In fact, I like Arizona State to beat Texas A&M.
Posted by oleyeller
Vols, Bitch
Member since Oct 2012
32021 posts
Posted on 8/3/15 at 10:43 am to
quote:

Was thinking this morning about making the thread.



i just decided to look and most lines were up, sometimes good value can be had early on the right games before everyone starts moving lines.
Posted by oleyeller
Vols, Bitch
Member since Oct 2012
32021 posts
Posted on 8/3/15 at 10:44 am to
quote:

Arizona State +3.



was looking at this as well as north carolina +3 against sc
Posted by accnodefense
Trump Fan
Member since Dec 2010
6279 posts
Posted on 8/3/15 at 10:46 am to
quote:

Im in on tcu -14 vs minnesota right now, i see that line moving alot before gameday.


I don't get this line at all, when 5dimes first released it, it was TCU -20 now its down to -14

If the opener was -20 you have to think there is crazy value on TCU at -14 so I can understand why you are on it and why I will be on it also, but I am waiting to see if it can get to -13.5 since you know the pro-Big 10 media will be beating the Minnesota upset drum leading up to the game
Posted by oleyeller
Vols, Bitch
Member since Oct 2012
32021 posts
Posted on 8/3/15 at 10:48 am to
quote:

If the opener was -20 you have to think there is crazy value on TCU at -14 so I can understand why you are on it and why I will be on it also, but I am waiting to see if it can get to -13.5 since you know the pro-Big 10 media will be beating the Minnesota upset drum leading up to the game


im happy at 14, i was concerned it will jump alot once it gets closer to the season and the public starts betting.. i just dont know where minnesota will find offense. They lost their only offense from last year.
Posted by rocket31
Member since Jan 2008
41819 posts
Posted on 8/3/15 at 10:49 am to
TCU seems like a solid play

i also like Ariz St
Posted by Billy Mays
Member since Jan 2009
25275 posts
Posted on 8/3/15 at 10:49 am to
TCU could come into this game flat being all aboard the preseason hype train.

I like Minnesota 1H for sure whatever the number is - I expect them to come out hot and TCU to press.
Posted by oleyeller
Vols, Bitch
Member since Oct 2012
32021 posts
Posted on 8/3/15 at 10:51 am to
quote:

TCU could come into this game flat being all aboard the preseason hype train.



anything is possible, but tcu is onviously the right side at -14
Posted by rocket31
Member since Jan 2008
41819 posts
Posted on 8/3/15 at 10:52 am to
also inb4 lsualum2001 frauds with this season record from last year.
Posted by oleyeller
Vols, Bitch
Member since Oct 2012
32021 posts
Posted on 8/3/15 at 10:52 am to
quote:

Ariz St


which way do we see this line moving? I would think i could get better than +3 once the public starts betting sec closer to game week
Posted by oleyeller
Vols, Bitch
Member since Oct 2012
32021 posts
Posted on 8/3/15 at 10:55 am to
quote:

also inb4 lsualum2001 frauds with this season record from last year.




i didnt keep a record last season... but i plan to this year. I had a really good year and was up almosy a grand going into the national champ game (my normal units are only $50) But i lost $250 on nat champ and $250 on superbowl those 2 games alone hurt my winnings but was still in positive and over 60% on games won on the yr.
Posted by rocket31
Member since Jan 2008
41819 posts
Posted on 8/3/15 at 10:57 am to
quote:

I would think i could get better than +3 once the public starts betting sec closer to game week




public usually bets ranked teams; believing that since they have a little number beside their name that they are the superior team.

so idk if the fade the public backing of an SEC team will hold in this scenario - if anything itll be a wash imo
Posted by accnodefense
Trump Fan
Member since Dec 2010
6279 posts
Posted on 8/3/15 at 10:58 am to
quote:

im happy at 14, i was concerned it will jump alot once it gets closer to the season and the public starts betting.. i just dont know where minnesota will find offense. They lost their only offense from last year.


Which is why TCU is such a good play in this game... TCU leads the nation or is close to leading the nation each year in run defense... so Minnesota is going to have to pass the ball if they want any chance. But to who? Last year against TCU only their tight end did any receiving damage and he is off to the NFL.

It's just not a good matchup for Minnesota at all. And though TCU won 30-7 last year, TCU didn't play a good offensive game. It was their 2nd game with their new offense. Any gains Minnesota makes defensively will be offset by TCU's offensive improvement.

This game has 38-14 final score written all over it. I also don't see how the first half play would be a good one either(Minnesota -7?) even if Minnesota scores an early TD off of momentum, they won't have the offensive to extend that lead and even if TCU's offense gets off to a slow start I don't see them being held to under 14 points in the 1st half.
Posted by oleyeller
Vols, Bitch
Member since Oct 2012
32021 posts
Posted on 8/3/15 at 10:59 am to
quote:

quote:
I would think i could get better than +3 once the public starts betting sec closer to game week



public usually bets ranked teams; believing that since they have a little number beside their name that they are the superior team.

so idk if the fade the public backing of an SEC team will hold in this scenario - if anything itll be a wash imo


good point also! Im just going to keep an eye on it. I normally dont place bets this early unless i see some numbers that i really like. I saw 3 that jumped out to me and took them. I will be in on more come game week
Posted by rocket31
Member since Jan 2008
41819 posts
Posted on 8/3/15 at 10:59 am to
quote:

i didnt keep a record last season... but i plan to this year. I had a really good year and was up almosy a grand going into the national champ game (my normal units are only $50)


yea, you were money; your record had to have been one of the best on the board last year

i lost a few hundred so pretty much just a meh year for me, but i was due for a losing year; hope to get back on the winning side
Posted by accnodefense
Trump Fan
Member since Dec 2010
6279 posts
Posted on 8/3/15 at 11:00 am to
By the way here are my results from last year. I am still tinkering with my model so I may not post my full Week 1 plays for another couple of weeks.

Posted by The Egg
Houston, TX
Member since Dec 2004
79125 posts
Posted on 8/3/15 at 11:00 am to
can someone c/p some lines up to look at?
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