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re: Official NFL Week 2 Bet Thread

Posted on 9/14/15 at 10:03 pm to
Posted by dcrews
Houston, TX
Member since Feb 2011
32130 posts
Posted on 9/14/15 at 10:03 pm to
quote:

Easy money betting against Tampa


The Saints defense would make my grandmother look like an MVP quarterback....and she's dead.

I don't trust Rob Ryan and that defense to stop much of anything. Not even a rookie Winston.

If that number somehow makes its way to +13 or higher, I'm on Tampa without a 2nd thought.
This post was edited on 9/14/15 at 10:12 pm
Posted by Hodson2Fuller
Member since Aug 2015
561 posts
Posted on 9/14/15 at 11:27 pm to
I'd be with you in that scenario but it's going to take a ton of $ to move the line to 13. Stranger things have happened. Will probably lay off and root for my Saints
Posted by bloupe2
Member since Apr 2011
2857 posts
Posted on 9/15/15 at 4:00 am to
I like STL all day in this one
Posted by josh336
baton rouge
Member since Jan 2007
82106 posts
Posted on 9/15/15 at 6:40 am to
Kc -3
Hou+3
Pit-6.5
Zona +2.5
Cincy-3
Cle -gb-3

All games i like, fade away
This post was edited on 9/15/15 at 6:41 am
Posted by ChemE in the OP
The Flats
Member since Apr 2011
6382 posts
Posted on 9/15/15 at 7:12 am to
Early leans are Bears, Browns, Redskins and Jags. Possibly Bills.
Posted by DallasTiger45
Member since May 2012
8741 posts
Posted on 9/15/15 at 7:33 am to
Cleveland
Cincy
Houston
Washington

All stand out. Also been hearing everybody and their mom say that Peyton is done- might add Denver
Posted by Hodson2Fuller
Member since Aug 2015
561 posts
Posted on 9/15/15 at 8:26 am to
The more I look at the Steelers-Niners game, the more I like the Steelers -6.5 at home coming off a long week after a close road loss to possibly the best team in the league, and the Niners coming off a short week after a ho-hum performance (save Hyde) at home.

Anyone care to weigh in on this game?
This post was edited on 9/15/15 at 8:27 am
Posted by Hodson2Fuller
Member since Aug 2015
561 posts
Posted on 9/15/15 at 8:31 am to
Hey Chicken -- That's a college betting thread, though, yah? You mean Westlakeguy's thread? His title was Week 1, does he change it and make it a season long thing? Relatively new here. Thanks.
Posted by Hodson2Fuller
Member since Aug 2015
561 posts
Posted on 9/15/15 at 10:27 am to
Looking around the internets it doesn't seem like a single soul is gonna put their $ on the Broncos to even cover the 3 at KC Thursday. I'd love to take KC before it hits 3.5. Someone talk me out of it.
Posted by PeteRose
Hall of Fame
Member since Aug 2014
17896 posts
Posted on 9/15/15 at 10:29 am to
NFL Record
4-0

1st play
KC -3
Posted by SirWinston
PNW
Member since Jul 2014
102134 posts
Posted on 9/15/15 at 12:17 pm to
Early teasers locked in

Posted by PeteRose
Hall of Fame
Member since Aug 2014
17896 posts
Posted on 9/15/15 at 12:27 pm to
Sir Winston,

on NFL teasers, why would you tease across the 0?
Posted by SirWinston
PNW
Member since Jul 2014
102134 posts
Posted on 9/15/15 at 12:31 pm to
my only "rule" on teasers is that you must cross 2 key numbers on a 6 pointer and 3 key numbers on a 10 and 12 number (preferably 4 on the latter) but then if I really love a game already (Packers) and just want some extra insurance on it I"ll throw them in a teaser as well. It can obviously backfire if you miss that cornerstone game and it will happen once or twice a year.

I'm going to restrict myself to these 3 plus one larger one with LSU and maybe the Saints and then play like a man on my other action.

My "squares usually win in Week 1" paid off last week - insane run on my teasers. Don't think it will continue.
This post was edited on 9/15/15 at 12:33 pm
Posted by DallasTiger45
Member since May 2012
8741 posts
Posted on 9/15/15 at 12:50 pm to
quote:

Sir Winston,

on NFL teasers, why would you tease across the 0?


He disregards math and does what he wants
Posted by PeteRose
Hall of Fame
Member since Aug 2014
17896 posts
Posted on 9/15/15 at 12:54 pm to
I get the key numbers. But look at your GB 10 pt teaser. You teased GB from -3.5 to GB+6.5.

So if GB loses by 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1......you're good.
If GB wins by 1, 2, 3....you're good.

That's only 9 points you're using. The other point puts GB at a tie which is a rare outcome.

I'm just saying you're missing out of a point when you tease across the 0.
Posted by SirWinston
PNW
Member since Jul 2014
102134 posts
Posted on 9/15/15 at 12:56 pm to
Posted by PeteRose
Hall of Fame
Member since Aug 2014
17896 posts
Posted on 9/15/15 at 1:00 pm to
lol...i guess if it works for you, then have at it.
Posted by Carson123987
Middle Court at the Rec
Member since Jul 2011
67808 posts
Posted on 9/15/15 at 1:09 pm to
Mother of god
Posted by Hodson2Fuller
Member since Aug 2015
561 posts
Posted on 9/15/15 at 1:25 pm to
I'm saddled with Bovada for the time being, BUT they have a 3 team 10-pt teaser for -110 and a 4 team 13-pt teaser for -120.

Might try some after seeing Sir Winston's sick sheet

Here's one I'm looking at:

Bengals +9½
Patriots +11½
Chiefs +10
Rams +9½

Not crazy about 9.5 and ties are losers, so 3 out of 4 of those aren't the greatest of value.

What does Sir Winston think?
This post was edited on 9/15/15 at 1:35 pm
Posted by DallasTiger45
Member since May 2012
8741 posts
Posted on 9/15/15 at 2:24 pm to
Don't be so defensive, man. You've been successful lately (maybe for a long time, who knows) and I'm happy for you. Doesn't change the fact that the way you use teasers is -EV
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