re: Official NBA/NCAA Basketball Bet thread - Week 3

What ya got about Texas -6 against South Alabama.

This is what daviddaman posted:

Tuesday Plays:

NCAAB:

VCU +4.5 (1.1 to win 1) - A very nice early season showdown here as VCU takes on Virginia. These are both teams that have sweet 16 potential and should enjoy very nice seasons. That said, i'll gladly take 4.5 with VCU in a line I think is a few points too high. The contrast in styles here should be interesting to watch. VCU as usual plays at a fast tempo, they'll press and try to speed you up all night. This game will be determined by how well Virginia can handle that pressure. Virginia didn't lose much from last years team, but one important piece they did lose was PG Jontel Evans. Evans wasn't a great player, but he was a steady hand at an important position that was trusted. Now to replace him they kind of have a revolving door of options and nobody has really stepped up and taken the position over. Issues at PG is probably the worst thing a team can have when facing a relentless pressuring attack like VCU. Virginia is good enough that the pressure won't undo them, but it should cause enough trouble for VCU to stay right in this game. Expect a tight one down to the final minutes.

Michigan State -3 (1.1 to win 1) - Right now I think Michigan State is the best team in the nation. Kentucky very well might be more talented, and could have more NBA players on their roster, but I just feel their squad is too young, and too inexperienced to handle a team like Michigan State. Appling, Harris, and Payne were 3 of the best players in the Big 10 last year, and all 3 are back this season. That trio along with the likely improvement of guys like Trice, Costello, Dawson, and Valentine leave the Spartans flat out loaded. Kentucky is as usual incredibly talented and that starting 5 likely all will play in the NBA. That said, just too young. If these two teams meet again in March I might take Kentucky after having 5 months under their belts, but I just don't think they're ready quite yet. Going with the experience.

Florida +6 (1.1 to win 1) - Another excellent early season showdown here as Florida takes on Wisconsin. Each of these teams has elite 8 if not final 4 potential this season. I love Wisconsin, I took them in their opener against St. Johns and they didn't disappoint. They are a rock solid, fundamental, smart, disciplined, well coached team. Really nothing not to like. That said laying 6 against a team as good as Florida is too many. The Gators are stacked this year, don't let that narrow win over North Florida in their opener fool you. That was a look ahead game for UF, as mentally they were probably already in Wisconsin for this one. The Gators return Wilbiken, Young, Yeguete, Prather, and Frazier to go with hot shot recruits Kasey Hill, and Chris Walker. There is talent all over the place on this team and if it all comes together I could really see them in the Final 4, the roster truly is that good. I'll admit the environment does worry me a bit as Wisconsin is so tough at home, but even with that I just can't pass up 6 points with a team as good as I expect Florida to be.

CS Northridge +6 (1.1 to win 1) - I went against USC the other night successfully against Utah State and i'll likely keep fading them until there's a reason not to. I don't want this to come off as I'm blindly fading them regardless of opponent though. I actually do what like what Northridge has this year, and expect a nice season for them with Reggie Theus now at the helm. The entire team is back for the Matadors this year, as they literally didn't lose anyone of any sort of value to them. Now under Theus an offense that was already pretty solid, should only get better. They'll look to run this year just as was the case under Braswell so nothing changes there. I just expect things to run a little more smoothly now with everyone on the roster having another year of experience under their belts. As far as USC this game gives Enfield a chance to really see what he has. He's said from the word go, that he wants to run. In their opener against Utah State he had a horrible match up for that, as the Aggies flat out just wouldn't allow it and played them to a snail slow 62 possession game which they easily won. Against Northridge here they'll have an opponent who has no problem running with them, they'll actually welcome it. Should be an entertaining up and down game, I just don't really see a talent edge gap in USC's favor and therefore have no problem snatching up 6 points and taking my chances.

I just would be really careful about playing VCU this early in the season. Tonight will tell a lot about them. They were the number 1 team in creating turnovers for the last two years running, and nobody really knows how that is going to translate with the new hand check rules. Virginia got to the line with a lot more consistency last season.

In my Home Court Advantage Ratings I have UVA top 5 in the country, they play well at home, 20-11-1 ATS since 2011 season. You will hear me preach it all season Home Court Advantage is a bigger deal in College Hoops than any other sport, with the differences in venues across the country, its not uncommon to see a team with a 10% difference in a teams FG% at Home and on the Road.

All the teams that were on the fringe of being plays for me that I backed off of. Trying to only play the best of the pack.

Hofstra +33
Kentucky +3.5
Illinois State +5
South Alabama +5.5
Ohio State -18
Kansas +5
Western Illinois +13
California -7.5

Alright you made me do this.
Those odds are too good to pass up.

Nov 12 CBB [532] KENTUCKY +145
Nov 12 CBB [535] CENTRAL MICHIGAN +10-110
Nov 12 CBB [549] KANSAS +180
Nov 12 CBB [561] SAN JOSE STATE +12-110
Nov 12 CBB [579] LOYOLA CHICAGO +125
Risking 10 USD To Win 469 USD

Tailed on 5Dimes to win $536

Let's get em!!!!!!!!

VCU +4

I took the parlay for a few bucks and then took all those teams and parlayed their MLs. Had a decent day so far with LSU and a few overs throughout the day.

Got em at 4 but they will win SU I think.

Someone please inform Kentucky the game has started.