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Started By
Message
re: OFFICIAL CFB Bet Thread Week 7
Posted on 10/7/13 at 9:45 am to LSUJuice
Posted on 10/7/13 at 9:45 am to LSUJuice
LSU's weakness as of late is their defense. Conversely, Florida's original starting QB is out. As much as everyone wants to think that it's a good thing for the Gators, it isn't.
Coming into Tiger stadium as a back up is a tough task. Their offense is putrid.
Yes the Florida defense is good and I suspect Mett won't have some 400 yard 5 TD game, but he's still a pro prospect, potential first rounder and if all keeps up, he will be in New York for the Heisman presentation (may not win it, but he'll be there).
He has like what, one online class this semester? His focus is solely on football and he has all kinds of time to prepare himself for whatever defense walks into Tiger Stadium. Combine that with Cameron helping him to prepare (someone who has seen NFL defenses on a weekly basis), I think they'll be ready.
LSU run blocking does need to improve, I agree with you on that.
What it comes down to, is that I believe that even if the LSU offense vs UF defense is a wash...the LSU defense isn't as "bad" as the Florida offense is "bad".
I have LSU as a PK in a teaser (sorry Bobby) with aTm and I'm extremely confident that the Tigers win outright this weekend.
Coming into Tiger stadium as a back up is a tough task. Their offense is putrid.
Yes the Florida defense is good and I suspect Mett won't have some 400 yard 5 TD game, but he's still a pro prospect, potential first rounder and if all keeps up, he will be in New York for the Heisman presentation (may not win it, but he'll be there).
He has like what, one online class this semester? His focus is solely on football and he has all kinds of time to prepare himself for whatever defense walks into Tiger Stadium. Combine that with Cameron helping him to prepare (someone who has seen NFL defenses on a weekly basis), I think they'll be ready.
LSU run blocking does need to improve, I agree with you on that.
What it comes down to, is that I believe that even if the LSU offense vs UF defense is a wash...the LSU defense isn't as "bad" as the Florida offense is "bad".
I have LSU as a PK in a teaser (sorry Bobby) with aTm and I'm extremely confident that the Tigers win outright this weekend.
This post was edited on 10/7/13 at 9:47 am
2
Posted on 10/7/13 at 9:50 am to dcrews
LSU wins this weekend, yes. But I don't think they cover.
Posted on 10/7/13 at 9:52 am to HoLeInOnEr05
quote:
LSU wins this weekend, yes. But I don't think they cover.
No worries. Just do a teaser.
Posted on 10/7/13 at 9:52 am to dcrews
Yeah I definitely see both sides, and I wanted to throw the other argument out there. I'm definitely staying away from it. That said, I'm in no position to strongly argue one way or the other on here. I just don't put in the time and research on these games like some of y'all have. 
(I will say, to my credit, I argued against Georgia last week. I knew something was up with that. But it will probably be the only time I go against the grain and get it right, or just lucky)
(I will say, to my credit, I argued against Georgia last week. I knew something was up with that. But it will probably be the only time I go against the grain and get it right, or just lucky)
This post was edited on 10/7/13 at 9:54 am
Posted on 10/7/13 at 9:53 am to blades8088
quote:
Who said anything about a one game teaser? It was meant as a good team to put in a teaser just as it implied. Get your head out your arse
Eat a dick
Posted on 10/7/13 at 9:54 am to bobbyray21
Don't be obtuse.
Posted on 10/7/13 at 9:54 am to bobbyray21
quote:
No worries. Just do a teaser.
A 1 teamer?
FYI just messing with you dude. You just totally took what i said out of context about Lsu being a good team to tease
Posted on 10/7/13 at 9:55 am to LSUJuice
quote:
Then perhaps I'm just being a negatiger
And this is probably the reason you shouldn't bet your own team, and is the reason I'm staying far far away.
I've been impressed with LSU this year. Much moreso than Florida.
Posted on 10/7/13 at 9:55 am to bobbyray21
quote:
No worries. Just do a teaser.
Giving some one shite about a teaser is awfully rich coming from you. Shouldn't you be looking to lay $600 to win a $100 on some bullshite game?
Posted on 10/7/13 at 9:56 am to blades8088
quote:
FYI just messing with you dude. You just totally took what i said out of context about Lsu being a good team to tease
It's fine. I think this thread gets a bit teaser-happy is all.
Posted on 10/7/13 at 9:56 am to HoLeInOnEr05
quote:
Giving some one shite about a teaser is awfully rich coming from you. Shouldn't you be looking to lay $600 to win a $100 on some bullshite game?
I don't see why the games are bullshite. They pay out just as well.
Posted on 10/7/13 at 9:57 am to bobbyray21
It's not just that. I personally will do a single 2 or 3 team teaser a week. LSU and aTM just seems like easy money at a pick
Posted on 10/7/13 at 9:59 am to bobbyray21
quote:
I don't see why the games are bullshite. They pay out just as well.
Yea, but when you lose one of those games, your going to feel it for weeks. What's wrong with putting a two team teaser together? At least you don't have to bet an absurd amount to win little.
Posted on 10/7/13 at 10:04 am to HoLeInOnEr05
Just agree to disagree on the teaser thing. Besides, I can't stand to see that math/statistics proof again.
I love this thread because it's the one place on here (and probably anywhere else for that matter) with good non-biased college football discussion that's not filled with trolling and bullshite.
I love this thread because it's the one place on here (and probably anywhere else for that matter) with good non-biased college football discussion that's not filled with trolling and bullshite.
Posted on 10/7/13 at 10:10 am to LSUJuice
quote:
Besides, I can't stand to see that math/statistics proof again.
I was totally thinking about posting it again.
Posted on 10/7/13 at 10:12 am to bobbyray21
It makes my head spin, and I'm an engineer. This post was edited on 10/7/13 at 10:15 am
Posted on 10/7/13 at 10:25 am to bobbyray21
What's your EV analysis on reverse bets for ML favorites we've been talking about?
Posted on 10/7/13 at 10:27 am to bamafan425
I'm curious about this too. I've done well with the ML favorite thing (-200 up to -600), but I just wonder what the numbers say about when and how often it will catch up to you over time.
Posted on 10/7/13 at 10:27 am to LSUJuice
Generally stay away from teasers, but I'll grab one if I can get good numbers. I don't mind getting LSU and aTm as PK.
The LSU line won't drop, but if it does, I'd take it below a TD since they're at home.
FWIW LSU is ranked 43rd in Rushing (top 10 in Rushing TD's). Yes their run blocking has looked below average at times, but they also block well enough on certain plays to break Hill or Hilliard for huge runs.
The LSU line won't drop, but if it does, I'd take it below a TD since they're at home.
FWIW LSU is ranked 43rd in Rushing (top 10 in Rushing TD's). Yes their run blocking has looked below average at times, but they also block well enough on certain plays to break Hill or Hilliard for huge runs.
Posted on 10/7/13 at 10:33 am to dcrews
Yeah that's the strange thing about the running game - it's feast or famine. Lots of -2 to +2 yard rushes. Very few +4 to +8 yard rushes. And then several where Hill just fricking beastmodes a long TD.
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