NFL Championship Weekend gambling thread

Went big on Niners -6.5 and small on Chiefs +3.5. Looks like the Chiefs line is about the same, but Niners are creeping up to -7.5.

This is sloppy but a benchmark of what I'm basing most things on.

I based it mostly off PFF forecast podcast, they are awesome. Rationale is that their main guy has a good feel for how Reid reads a defense and develops a gameplan, and he thinks that the Chiefs have to win outside, meaning either Rice or Watson. Mahomes really trusts Watson. Last bit is that none of the books had Watson available until last night, which seems to indicate they're scared of him burning them.

Last week they were ALL OVER Kelce with similar rationale Bills thin where Kelce thrives, (ditto for Mike Evans) so I used Kelce blowing up as the anchor for my plays, likely will add some more aggressive Watson ones this week.

ETA they love Aiyuk too

IMO Baltimore would need a -2 or greater turnover margin with Lamar having a poor accuracy game to lose.

Ravens are a terrible matchup for the Chiefs (on both sides of the ball, imo).

Hamilton was generated in a lab to stop Kelce. Defense is good, fast, and nasty. They will be flying around and not at all scared of Mahomes or the KC brand. Gimmicky Chiefs offense won't work in this stadium against this defense. Atmosphere will be electric.

I could see something "shocking" like 38-13 Ravens. I think SF beats Detroit comfortably as well.

quote:

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IMO Baltimore would need a -2 or greater turnover margin with Lamar having a poor accuracy game to lose.

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Jason Whitlock was saying he believes Baltimore is an all-time great team, despite having 4 losses. Don't know.

Lost twice to Division rival Steelers who know them up and down...but only 17-10, both times. But beat the Niners easily at the end of the season.

Chiefs are a shell of themselves if you watched the Bills game. Needing trick plays to move the ball.

The tiny betting line is for public consumption only and the hype of the Swifties. Feels like easy money on the Ravens while everyone is seduced by the Chiefs media love.

Fanduel no sweat SGP+

So, you start a legitimate thread. Someone comes along a few days later and starts a duplicate thread. Your thread gets bumped back to the top. Your thread is then anchored in favor of the duplicate thread. Makes perfect sense.