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Mike Postle "Cheating Allegations" in Poker

Posted on 10/7/19 at 10:21 pm
Posted by gobuxgo5
Member since Nov 2012
10028 posts
Posted on 10/7/19 at 10:21 pm
Youtube Vid Regarding It

There is some allegations of Mike Postle playing small hand poker on Stones Poker. It is a live stream with RFID read hands and supposedly he is winning hand over fist with some fishy plays. A lot of poker sleuths are investigating it and pointing out oddities with his game. What do you all think? He cheating?
Posted by dj30
New Orleans
Member since Feb 2006
28724 posts
Posted on 10/7/19 at 10:30 pm to
Hes definitely cheating.
Posted by DirtyE
New Orleans
Member since Jun 2008
2506 posts
Posted on 10/7/19 at 10:30 pm to
There was a really interesting article today on Reddit about this.
Posted by Ric Flair
Charlotte
Member since Oct 2005
13656 posts
Posted on 10/7/19 at 10:32 pm to
Postle seems to play like a “poker God” during Stones streams. I honestly think it’s because he is focused and not all loosey goosey at the table eating a sandwich, because everything conveys information.

Although Doug Polk’s channel (Can’t remember if it’s called Polker hands or Postle hands) is pretty convincing
Posted by wildtigercat93
Member since Jul 2011
112320 posts
Posted on 10/7/19 at 10:35 pm to
quote:

28:31


Jesus frickin Christ man.
Posted by gobuxgo5
Member since Nov 2012
10028 posts
Posted on 10/7/19 at 10:41 pm to
That's one of the shorter videos about it.
Posted by TheVig10
Baton Rouge
Member since Apr 2008
451 posts
Posted on 10/8/19 at 7:09 am to
He’s cheating. Winning at a mathematically impossible rate. All the live stream of him prior to July 18 compared to the streams and results afterward is all you have to see
Posted by SlowFlowPro
Simple Solutions to Complex Probs
Member since Jan 2004
422428 posts
Posted on 10/8/19 at 7:16 am to
i was curious how long it would take for this to make it here
Posted by SlowFlowPro
Simple Solutions to Complex Probs
Member since Jan 2004
422428 posts
Posted on 10/8/19 at 7:18 am to
quote:

Hes definitely cheating.

you can ignore any cards he's dealt and look at his results. he's making more per 100 BB than Russ "god mode" Hamltion during the UB fraud scandal
This post was edited on 10/8/19 at 7:20 am
Posted by SlowFlowPro
Simple Solutions to Complex Probs
Member since Jan 2004
422428 posts
Posted on 10/8/19 at 7:18 am to
quote:

Jesus frickin Christ man.

joe ingram has SEVERAL 4+ hour videos on this scandal over the past week
Posted by TheVig10
Baton Rouge
Member since Apr 2008
451 posts
Posted on 10/8/19 at 7:25 am to
I went down the rabbit hole last week and haven’t been able to look away. He did himself no favors going on Mike Matusow’s podcast
Posted by DallasTiger45
Member since May 2012
8428 posts
Posted on 10/8/19 at 7:34 am to
I would be shocked if he’s not cheating.
Posted by SlowFlowPro
Simple Solutions to Complex Probs
Member since Jan 2004
422428 posts
Posted on 10/8/19 at 7:39 am to
i haven't done any of the deep deep dives b/c all i needed to hear was the stats to know it's 100% bullshite. ingram and polk discussed it on their joint youtube video and the poker guys did on their podcast. once you hear the stats, it's over. when you see him actually play, though, you combine this with impossible winrates and see he's doing it by playing like 92s or 45o all the time.

watching the hand analyses is tough b/c you have to do like joey did and do it for 4+ hours to really appreciate it. one crazy hand isn't enough. he literally never makes an incorrect river decision.

i'm more interested in how he's cheating, exactly. the berkey video recently went into it, and got into how the infamous hand where the "graphics were wrong" couldn't have worked that way and there had to be somebody on the inside helping him. there's also the possibility that he has a portable RFID reader and literally knows the deck each deal

the most pathetic thing about all of this is the production team/announcers. they slobbered all over postle and legit promoted him like he was outer worldly. it created a legitimate belief system that influenced their commentary and likely the whole player-group's beliefs. you want to see a cult form? this is how it's done
Posted by SlowFlowPro
Simple Solutions to Complex Probs
Member since Jan 2004
422428 posts
Posted on 10/8/19 at 7:44 am to
quote:

I would be shocked if he’s not cheating.

it's, literally, statistically impossible that he's not

here is a post from 2+2 about his winrate

quote:

Sure it plays bigger than most 5/5 game bc those are capped while this is table max. It doesn't change the fact that he is winning at rates that are statistically alarming.

total winnings at NLHE: $305236.8
Hrs Played: 338.4
Total hands played: 338.5 * 30 = 10,155
Number of times he played 100 hands: 10155 / 100 = 101.55

Winrate at 5/5
Total winnings in BBs ($5): $305236.8 / 5 = 61047.36BB
61047.36 / 101.55 = 601BB/100 hands (winrate at 5/5)

Winrate at 10/20
Total winnings in BBs ($20): $305236.8 / 20 = 15261.84BB
15261.84 / 101.55 = 150BB/100 hands (winrate at 10/20)


Winrate at 20/40
Total winnings in BBs ($40): $305236.8 / 40 = 7630.92BB
7630.92 / 101.55 = 75BB/100 hands (winrate at 20/40)

Even giving him a generous 30 hands per hour and playing on a 20/40 game which is 8x a bigger BB, he is winning at 75BBs per 100 hands. Which is still an insane winrate.


1 – 4 bb/100 = Great. A solid winrate if you can sustain it.
5 – 9 bb/100 = Amazing. This is a very high winrate at any level. Consider moving up.
10+ bb/100 = Immense. Very, very few have a winrate like this.
Posted by EarlyCuyler3
Appalachia
Member since Nov 2017
27290 posts
Posted on 10/8/19 at 7:51 am to
100% cheating. It's impossible he isnt.
Posted by WG_Dawg
Hoover
Member since Jun 2004
86468 posts
Posted on 10/8/19 at 7:55 am to
I don't know anything about poker, compare this to a feat in another sport. Would it be like rushing for 900 yards in a game or something?
Posted by EarlyCuyler3
Appalachia
Member since Nov 2017
27290 posts
Posted on 10/8/19 at 7:58 am to
It's hard to think of a comparison. It would be more like being able to see the words in a spelling bee when no one else can. That's basically what it is.
Posted by SlowFlowPro
Simple Solutions to Complex Probs
Member since Jan 2004
422428 posts
Posted on 10/8/19 at 8:00 am to
quote:

. Would it be like rushing for 900 yards in a game or something?

probably closer to 1500, consistently, over 3 seasons

10 BB/100 (that's 10 big blinds won per 100 hands, so at 2-5 you're winning $50 every time 100 hands are dealt) is "god mode" for poker. Postle is at 150 BB/100 (or more, in some cases)

he has something like 245 winning sessions out of 247. it's super high and a good player's win rate is 55-60% of sessions
Posted by WG_Dawg
Hoover
Member since Jun 2004
86468 posts
Posted on 10/8/19 at 8:03 am to
oh, yeah he cheatin
Posted by atrain5
Baton Rouge Correctional Facility
Member since Sep 2017
2209 posts
Posted on 10/8/19 at 8:32 am to
quote:

There was a really interesting article today on Reddit about this.

Link?
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