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Let’s talk about coaches going for 2 too soon
Posted on 11/28/20 at 1:19 pm
Posted on 11/28/20 at 1:19 pm
Oregon State scored with 12:38 left in the 4th to go up 32-31. They went for 2 and it all worked out.
However, I would argue that they should have just kicked the PAT to go up 33-31. Here is my reason, if they had missed the 2PT try and Oregon scores a TD and they convert their 2PT try, that means you're down 39-32 and your next TD only ties with the PAT.
OSU also went for 2 with 9:32 left in the 3Q
However, I would argue that they should have just kicked the PAT to go up 33-31. Here is my reason, if they had missed the 2PT try and Oregon scores a TD and they convert their 2PT try, that means you're down 39-32 and your next TD only ties with the PAT.
OSU also went for 2 with 9:32 left in the 3Q
3
Posted on 11/28/20 at 1:21 pm to tigers25
Going for 2 is the better statistical call almost every time.
So there's that.
Especially when you go from 1 to 3. There's significant value in that.
The difference between a 1 and 2 point lead is minimal compared to the jump to 3.
So there's that.
Especially when you go from 1 to 3. There's significant value in that.
The difference between a 1 and 2 point lead is minimal compared to the jump to 3.
This post was edited on 11/28/20 at 1:24 pm
Posted on 11/28/20 at 1:25 pm to KosmoCramer
I mean, I get that if it’s late in the game and you may not get another possession. But in the 3Q or early 4Q, it seems way too early to go after points.
Posted on 11/28/20 at 1:27 pm to tigers25
Your post makes little sense. Eventually, we’ll look back on kicking almost every time and laugh at that strategy. Dinosaurs generally still lead the profession.
This post was edited on 11/28/20 at 1:37 pm
Posted on 11/28/20 at 1:29 pm to tigers25
With 10 minutes left to go:
Getting the extra point to go from a 1 to 2 point lead gives you a 1.8 boost in expected win probability.
Going from 1 to 3 gives you a 6.5 point boost for expected win probability.
Its certainly worth the risk.
Getting the extra point to go from a 1 to 2 point lead gives you a 1.8 boost in expected win probability.
Going from 1 to 3 gives you a 6.5 point boost for expected win probability.
Its certainly worth the risk.
This post was edited on 11/28/20 at 1:30 pm
Posted on 11/28/20 at 1:31 pm to KosmoCramer
quote:
Going for 2 is the better statistical call almost every time.
except most fans are irrational so you will get more grief for the one critical time it doesn't work than praise for all the times it does
Posted on 11/28/20 at 1:33 pm to KosmoCramer
What about doing it with 9:38 left in the 3Q to be down 3 instead of 4?
Or with 12:38 left in the 4Q to go up 3 instead up 2? Or is 12:38 close enough to your 10 minute mark?
Or with 12:38 left in the 4Q to go up 3 instead up 2? Or is 12:38 close enough to your 10 minute mark?
Posted on 11/28/20 at 1:40 pm to tigers25
It’s almost always better to go for 2. The expected value of going for it every time is higher than 1 indicates going for it, on average, it the right call. That expected value will deviate based on offensive/defensive efficiency so there could be some offenses that are bad enough enough it doesn’t make sense as a strategy.
Posted on 11/28/20 at 1:53 pm to tigers25
Didn’t Malzahn go for 2 early in first Q a few weeks ago? Think it was after they went up 6-0 if I remember correctly. All I could think was that they had serious kicker injuries but later they kicked field goals an extra points so it was all Malzahn.
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