re: Guy could win $30K on MNC if AU wins

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yes, but that is unlikely and a spread bet is -110, meaning hed have to beat 16500 to win 15000.

ML gets odds, probably soemthing like +125-+140 I'd guess

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Right, like I said, didn't know the exact odds, that was just kind of a guess.

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so if he bet $15K on Oregon and Auburn wins by 1, then he'll win $45,000
if he bet 15K on Oregon and Auburn loses, then he'll win $15,000??
if he doesnt bet and Auburn loses in the NC, then he's out 30,000

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It sounds like these are his options (this is with the assumption that he puts down 15k on all bets, which he obviously might place 10k or 5k or 20k, etc):

If he bets $15k on Oregon (by the spread, NOT the money line) and Auburn wins by one or two, he wins $44,285 (wins $30,300 from Auburn winning [on a $300 bet, net of $30,000], wins $14,285 from Oregon covering the spread).

If he bets $15k on Oregon (by the spread, NOT the money line) and Auburn wins by more than three, he wins $15,000 (wins $30,300 from Auburn winning [on a $300 bet, so net of $30,000], loses $15,000 from Oregon not covering the spread).

If he bets $15k on Oregon (by the spread and not the money line) and Oregon wins, he wins $13,985 (wins $14,285 from Oregon covering the spread, loses $300 from his initial bet on Auburn).

If he bets $15k on Oregon (by the money line, not the spread) and Auburn wins, he wins $15,000 (wins $30,300 from Auburn winning [on a $300 bet, so net of $30,000], loses $15,000 on Oregon winning).

If he bets $15k on Oregon (by the money line, not the spread) and Oregon wins, he wins $19,200 (wins $19,500 from Oregon winning, loses $300 on initial Auburn bet).

Obviously, if he bets $0, he either gets $30,000 if Auburn wins or loses $300 if Oregon wins.

I think his best option is actually the spread for Oregon. I was originally spread, then I was money line, now I'm back to spread. Essentially, he has a choice. If he bets the money line or spread on Oregon, and Auburn wins by more than 3, it's the exact same either way, so that doesn't matter. He has the option of winning $30k more if Auburn wins by 1 or 2 if you bet Oregon by the spread instead of the money line than if Oregon wins. Or the option of winning $4k more if Oregon wins straight up if you bet Oregon money line instead of spread. I think I'd take my chance at the additional $30k, especially because I think Auburn is winning the game anyway, so might as well go with them winning by 1 or 2. If he thinks it's 7.5 times more likely Auburn wins by 1 or 2 than Oregon wins at all (which I think is probably the case) he should bet spread.

I think my math's right, someone can double check if they wish.

I own $50 of the ticket. It is an uneven split between myself and my buddy.

Last summer, He was in Vegas playing poker and started shopping the best line for Auburn to win the NC. We had no inside sources, he is not Charles Barkley, etc... Just taking a shot on our team. I'm a 2 dollar player, he plays dimes.

The Hilton was the only place to give us 100-1, most others had 75-1. We tried to bet a dime, which had to be passed by the sportsbook manager. He declined and they would only let us take $300. So, we had 12-1 to win SEC and 100-1 to win BCS.

Last weekend was when we would have done a heavy hedge (south carolina money line was nice). Instead, we let it roll. Now, we are going to let most of it ride in the NC game. Maybe a few dimes on Oregon with a chance to middle. Or the money line if Auburn is favored by enough to push it up. Not sure yet. Since I only have $5K at risk. I highly doubt that I'll hedge more than $1K.

We are both Auburn Alum and are going to the game. Then, to Vegas the day after if we win. This ticket will at least pay for some of our trips. I've attended Clemson, LSU, Iron Bowl, SEC Champ and now Glendale. I'm easily $10K into tickets and hotels.

War Damn Eagle.

BTW, they did a special on this on the local Birmingham news.

AuburnDon

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Now, we are going to let most of it ride in the NC game. Maybe a few dimes on Oregon with a chance to middle. Or the money line if Auburn is favored by enough to push it up. Not sure yet. Since I only have $5K at risk. I highly doubt that I'll hedge more than $1K.

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Congrats on your good fortune. Whatever you decide to do hedge-wise, I'd wait as long as possible because I don't see the line moving towards Oregon.

too slow

congrats