re: Derby Hopefuls for this year?

Well, I had a miserable day. Glad I only bet three of the races I picked. What a miserable job I did today. Maybe I was just preparing for all the winnings tomorrow.

The Ol Calvin factor. See when MOH goes from 30-1 to 19-1 I know others see what I do. Gomez isn't going to draw that kind of dough on name alone.

Alright I'll shoot first
1st-2-1
2nd-2/4,8
3rd-6
4th-4-8
5th-4
6th-5/2,8
7th-7/4,5
8th-2
9th-6/2,12
10th-8
11th-11/1,8,19 I actually will probably put $20 WPS on Nehro also. If Master of Hounds doesn't win, I think he will. Thoughts??

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You listed alot of the ones ii thinking of

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You mean the Derby or all of them?

The payout fo a trifecta and a trifecta box are exactly the same, unless I'm misundestanding the question. The box is just taking the 3 horses you llike in all 6 combos possible, thus it costs six times more. I might be misunderstanding the question though.

Tomorrow I'm limiting myself to $20-$30. I'm gonna go with a superfecta with the favorite over Arch3, MMM, and Soldat. Then I'm goonna do the same with Soldat winning, and the other 3 boxed. So that's $12. Probably gona do something with Master of Hounds and Decisive Moment as my long shot.

I just love betting the big bets on the Derby because if you hit, the payout is huge compared to any other race.

Question for the horse racing fans: Do you think a NASCAR type tour would work for horse racing?

alright folks so i just finished my complete preliminary Derby notes (and a bottle of wine i might add). i've whittled my choices down to 7 colts. will think more and post more about it tomorrow.

my own shorthand
*D = bred for distance
*F = speedster who needs an early lead

1. ArchArchArch - drew the worst post position, 98 beyer, 3 of 6 races were 1st place finishes, has a strong move on the far turn
2. Brilliant Speed - D, better on turf than dirt, would be a better pick if the track was sloppy, seems to be outclassed in this field
3. Twice the Appeal - 89 beyer, Calvin Borel riding is a plus (3 of 4 Derbies), sire side has some distance pedigree
4. Stay Thirsty - D, too slow to keep up with this field?, blinkers hurt him in the FL Derby.. trainer has removed them, one-run colt, potential sleeper
5. Decisive Moment - F, low beyer, looked great in his last race but competition was questionable, the speed horses to his outside will hurt him
6. Comma to the Top - F, has the most career starts of any horse (13), no graded stakes wins this year, short distance pedigree, weak SA Derby field
7. Pants on Fire - F, seems to always be right there in the mix at the wire, 6 week layoff, needs to be forwardly placed to have a shot
8. Dialed In - D, 97 beyer, bred for the distance w/ combination of closing speed, 3 1 0 0 in 4 career starts, Mineshaft pedigree, top 3 BRIS, could get badly caught in traffic in a 19-horse field
9. Derby Kitten - low beyer, late entry, no real shot here
10. Twinspired - D, only one race on dirt.. where he finished 8th, stalkers do well in the Derby, solid pick as a long shot
11. Master of Hounds - D, turf horse, should be good value, leading trainer in O'Brien, much unknown coming out of Europe, nice showing in UAE Derby, Raise a Native pedigree
12. Santiva - nice post position draw, has had 3 different trainers and 5 different jockeys, light speed ratings
13. Mucho Macho Man - has won two at 9f, 3rd in LA Derby, in top 3 in 7 of 8 races, Holy Bull grandsire, seems to have lots of fight in him
14. Shackleford - F, low beyer, FL Derby seems to be a fluke race, top 3 BRIS, broke his maiden at CD, can he get the distance?
15. Midnight Interlude - D, won SA Derby but 2 favorites were out, lightly run, not tested at this distance, Baffert is a definite plus, stalker, didn't race as 2 year old
16. Animal Kingdom - turf horse, only one graded stakes win, everyone says he's loving the Churchill track, 1 1/4 mile will be good for him, place/show.. no win here
17. Soldat - F, highest beyer in the race (103), bad post position, will fare even better if the track is muddy, top 3 BRIS, needs to be forwardly placed at the first turn
18. Uncle Mo - SCRATCHED
19. Nehro - D, Mineshaft pedigree, closer, added ground of extra 1/16th will help him get there, can absolutely fly, BRIS increased last 3 races.. 88, 96, 99
20. Watch Me Go - top beyer of only 84, bad post position, no real shot here

Thanks for the info!!

Still don't know who I'm adding to the 3 I've picked :(

Derby day!!

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he payout fo a trifecta and a trifecta box are exactly the same, unless I'm misundestanding the question. The box is just taking the 3 horses you llike in all 6 combos possible, thus it costs six times more. I might be misunderstanding the question though.

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No I think you got it.

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Rohan

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Just read it and I think you nailed. Arch main problem will be can he get to the outside or will he be crushed against the rail and to far back when he does get to the outside to make up ground

Anyone know the weather forecast?