re: Cubs @ Astros Game Thread

Dude it's PECOTA, not PETCOTA. I was making a joke in the last thread just like the one MSU and I made the last time you called it PETCOTA in your thread about the Astros. And it is stupid to say they should have won this amount of games because of expectations based on run differential. In the grand scheme of things that doesn't mean anything. They won 86 games last year which is all that matters. And has Drayton been wrong in deciding to putt the trigger with any of the mid season moves that have been made? In 04 they traded for Carlos Beltran which helped them make the run to the 04 playoffs In 06 they made a deal for Aubrey Huff which filled a need at 3rd and OF cause both Jason Lane and Morgan Ensberg had been playing like shite. This move also gave them a run at the division title finishing a game out of first. 2007 was more out of necessity than anything else since Aubrey signed with BAL in the off season they were forced to give Morgan another shot at 3rd to which he sucked dick again. They decided it was time to trade him to SD and picked up Ty for a mid reliever from Tampa. And finally last year with LaTroy and Randy giving them a pitching boost to be in the WC hunt until Hurricane Ike. Every year besides 07 was a move that boosted them to either make the playoffs or make a push to be there till the end. I would much rather my owner be someone who is willing to pull the trigger and wants a competitive team on the field every year than one who is passive and never wants to make a move.

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And it really doesn't bother me that you think I know little about baseball. It's the stance I would expect one to take when someone talks about their team negatively. No worries

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I didn't say you don't know baseball. I actually think the contrary as far as MLB as a whole. I said you know shite about the Astros which you have proven with most of your comments.

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sorry I don't think the Astros are good. I guess I just don't know shite about the astros. I'm sure they will win 90 games this season. Good luck in the playoffs

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Has nothing to do with you not thinking the Astros are going to be good. I have said every time asked that I think they will fall short of the playoffs and win around 80 games. You have made it clear that they are a shite team who will finish 5th in the division and which is fine if your reason for thinking so is something other than, well they are old and are gonna break down. You have no idea if the players on the Astros are going to get injured or not and neither do I but the difference is you try to pass your opinions off as fact, just like how they absolutely overachieved last year because a website predicted wrong. IMO they will have to get very lucky to make the playoffs or win 90 and even if they do it would be right at 90 FWIW

They have no pitching behind Oswalt and he's on a downslide. Wandy is too inconsistent. Not enough hitting either. They won't sniff the playoffs

Teams shouldn't finish over .500 with a run differential that bad. No one else did it last season... two teams did in 2007. The Mariners (who everybody was falsely pumped about in 2008, only to collapse and lose 100 games) and the Diamondbacks, who won the NL West with a 90-72 record despite a -20 run differential. They went on to improve to a +14 run differential in 2008, but despite a 34-run swing, only finished 82-80.

You can go back and look... it's pretty rare for a team to finish above .500 with a negative differential... even more rare for that team to then follow up with a similar season.


This is exactly the point. The pythagorean expectation is a good indicator for what will happen the following year not the year previous.

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But... didn't you just argue that they're basically the same team as last year, minus Wigginton and Wolf?

So the fact that they were outscored by 31 runs last season and then lost two big pieces is a good thing for this season?

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They lost two pieces but they also gained pieces in other positions. Catcher was a big negative which they upgraded and with the loss of Wolf
they picked up Hampton. I know I know his injuries and but fact is he had a good second half to the season last year after coming back and has potential if he can stay healthy to fill in for Wolf. 3b is going to be a black mark on this season more than likely but I also think that players like Pence and Bourn will be improved from last year and we will hopefully get a full season out of Carlos as he was tearing it up last year before he was injured.

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They can maybe hang around the .500 mark, but they aren't going to have similar luck as last season.

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Yes, they were very lucky to have a hurricane come through the city right in the middle of their playoff push.

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Teams shouldn't finish over .500 with a run differential that bad. No one else did it last season... two teams did in 2007. The Mariners (who everybody was falsely pumped about in 2008, only to collapse and lose 100 games) and the Diamondbacks, who won the NL West with a 90-72 record despite a -20 run differential. They went on to improve to a +14 run differential in 2008, but despite a 34-run swing, only finished 82-80.

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They shouldn't I agree but the Astros did. They pulled out a lot of close games, as they have done a good job of in years past as well, to get the wins. Call it luck, call it a fluke, or whatever you want. There was some luck involved but there was also a lot of heart to pull out those wins.

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You can go back and look... it's pretty rare for a team to finish above .500 with a negative differential... even more rare for that team to then follow up with a similar season.

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I could care less about what teams did the next year after they finish with a negative run differential. That means absolutely nothing as to what the 2009 Astros are going to do this season

Boom I need to take this oppourtunity to apoligize for giving you a hard time because of your retardation. If I would have known your back story and how you were mistreated growing up and were abused I would have never started with you. Why didn't you just say your parents sent you to public school in LA to start with? I feel so bad now. Especially since it's holy week.

You're saying all this as an act, right?

Like the Skip Bayless of Astros fans... going over the top for the sake of arguing?

Right?

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He can't do it by himself, though... just look at other guys in similar situations like Halladay and Peavy. They're both better than Oswalt, but stuck on crappy or mediocre teams.

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I understand and agree, I was addressing the post he made where he said Oswalt was regressing.

it's ok boom, tell the doctor where they touched you. They can't hurt you anymore. you are safe here.

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He can't do it by himself, though... just look at other guys in similar situations like Halladay and Peavy.

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He didn't do it by himself last year. Astros finished 8th in team pitching in the NL. Not outstanding but certainly not the worst rotation in baseball either