re: College Football Week 1/Futures Bet Thread

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56.2% last three years in NCAAF

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started this thread in 2010 with TTT while living in Houston

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this is a lie and all of you are cucks

especially Hole

Hey Chem, what's your take on LSU/Wisky?

It looks like the side is becomming more and more on LSU, yet the spread isn't going up. That and Miles' history of not putting games away seems like Wisky could be the right side.

Thoughts?

I'm hoping for a +10.5.

Doesn't seem likely though.

For me the key ingredients are...

- High volume game
- Receiving less than 30% of the wagers
- Showing RLM
- Dog (preferably coming off loss and/or non-cover)

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I typically have more success from midseason on as Vegas hammers their lines down on CFB and NFL (especially NFL)

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In my experience, this is when the RLM and going against public favs strategies work best. We'll see if it holds true this season.

Good luck to everyone, we're getting close

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Dog (preferably coming off loss and/or non-cover)

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I'm already licking my chops for week 2 (Overreaction Saturday).


I even thought about playing Hawaii this week just because everyone is so down on their defense after last week's game.

Anyone else like Houston? I think ward will give Oklahoma's defense fits, and will be good for at least a back door cover, if not keeping them within a score all game. The one thing that worries me about Houston this year is their defense had a huge turnover ratio last year. I feel like teams will regress to the mean in that department.

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What are you guys seeing to make you jump on WKU -17?

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I dont think the books are respecting WKU enough, this is a good team, the only player they lost from last year is Doughty. Everyone else is back. This team beat Rice by 39 points at Rice last year, and Rice is breaking in a new QB also and has to replace a lot more production than WKU. Is losing Doughty really that big of a deal? Like I said, this line should be closer to 21.

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FIU +7.5

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7.5? You know you can get this at 10 right?

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I even thought about playing Hawaii this week just because everyone is so down on their defense after last week's game.

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I am on Hawaii partially for this reason, and partially because I know Harbaugh will call off the dogs early out of respect. 41.5 is just too many points.

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Anyone else like Houston? I think ward will give Oklahoma's defense fits, and will be good for at least a back door cover, if not keeping them within a score all game. The one thing that worries me about Houston this year is their defense had a huge turnover ratio last year. I feel like teams will regress to the mean in that department.

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I watched this line get steamed to 12 yesterday, my gut says this game will be close, simply because Houston is playing on pure adrenaline, but I have no play. I don't think Houston is as good as everyone thinks, you are absolutely right, they were lucky last year. Bill Connelly says they were by far the luckiest team in CFB, a bounce here or there and they are 9-3 or 8-4. I like this quote from Bill Connelly:

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Last year, teams facing 15 percent expectancy went 1-10. Teams facing 24 percent ended up 1-11. UH was the only winner of each. The odds of winning all three of these games: around 1.7 percent.

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If you look at their depth chart, Ward is really the only major playmaker on offense returning. They lost playmakers on the OL, WR, RB. Can Ward do it all by himself? Agian, I think Houston covers simply because they will go all out 100% for this game and play on pure adrenaline, but they lost enough pieces from last year's lucky team to where they can get blown out, too.