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re: College Football Week 1/Futures Bet Thread

Posted on 8/26/16 at 1:56 pm to
Posted by wahoocs
Lafayette, LA
Member since Nov 2004
22277 posts
Posted on 8/26/16 at 1:56 pm to
I have followed that trend for several years now, and I'm a bit disappointed seeing it in print now, and also surprised that the numbers are not even more significant than 60%.

But my analysis wasn't that extensive and concentrated on mostly higher volumes than 2.5X

When you throw in home, away, and neutral, numbers become much more significant.

Trends involving oddsmakers > trends involving bettors
Posted by bamaatlsu
Dallas
Member since Mar 2007
5068 posts
Posted on 8/26/16 at 2:48 pm to
quote:

a quarter of a unit on the Cal/Hawaii under 66.5 tonight


eh, a little friday night action, why the hell not
Posted by goldennugget
Hating Masks
Member since Jul 2013
24514 posts
Posted on 8/26/16 at 2:53 pm to
quote:

eh, a little friday night action, why the hell not


Looks like the steam has stopped and the line is settling at 66.5
Posted by bamaatlsu
Dallas
Member since Mar 2007
5068 posts
Posted on 8/26/16 at 2:58 pm to
quote:

66.5

that's where i got it. It was a freeplay. Let's go defense!
Posted by Lazy But Talented
Member since Aug 2011
14441 posts
Posted on 8/26/16 at 3:06 pm to
Of course I didn't wait... took it at 64.5

All my buddies followed suit as well. I'm ready for some defense action.
This post was edited on 8/26/16 at 3:09 pm
Posted by ChemE in the OP
The Flats
Member since Apr 2011
6382 posts
Posted on 8/26/16 at 3:40 pm to
Took some Saints -3 tonight. Starters should stay in significantly longer than the Pitt starters. Some other nice indicators.
Posted by oleyeller
Vols, Bitch
Member since Oct 2012
32021 posts
Posted on 8/26/16 at 3:56 pm to
im on under 67 tonight. Just to have some action
Posted by DallasTiger45
Member since May 2012
8419 posts
Posted on 8/26/16 at 4:00 pm to
Rainbow Warriors +20.5 .5 unit
Posted by ChemE in the OP
The Flats
Member since Apr 2011
6382 posts
Posted on 8/26/16 at 4:04 pm to
Definitely like that side of it if I had to pick.
Posted by TheOcean
#honeyfriedchicken
Member since Aug 2004
42455 posts
Posted on 8/26/16 at 5:31 pm to
Wattup!

Hawaii U 66.5
Saints -3

Tailing, boys
This post was edited on 8/26/16 at 5:32 pm
Posted by Jon Ham
Member since Jun 2011
28556 posts
Posted on 8/26/16 at 5:42 pm to
quote:

im on under 67 tonight. Just to have some action


Right there withya brother!

Let the degeneracy begin!!!
Posted by goldennugget
Hating Masks
Member since Jul 2013
24514 posts
Posted on 8/26/16 at 5:56 pm to
Cal line being steamed back to -21
Posted by goldennugget
Hating Masks
Member since Jul 2013
24514 posts
Posted on 8/26/16 at 6:01 pm to
quote:

Took some Saints -3 tonight. Starters should stay in significantly longer than the Pitt starters. Some other nice indicators.


Looks like this one is headed to -3.5
Posted by goldennugget
Hating Masks
Member since Jul 2013
24514 posts
Posted on 8/26/16 at 6:46 pm to
This is my final spreadsheet until i leave for Las vegas. Some of my variables got updated today so i had to update the entire sheet.

LINK
Posted by FulshearTiger
Member since Jul 2015
5274 posts
Posted on 8/26/16 at 7:35 pm to
Hawaii +20.5
Posted by ChemE in the OP
The Flats
Member since Apr 2011
6382 posts
Posted on 8/26/16 at 7:46 pm to
quote:

Starters should stay in significantly longer than the Pitt starters.


Called it...
Posted by JG77056
Vegas baby, Vegas
Member since Sep 2010
12061 posts
Posted on 8/26/16 at 8:49 pm to
Went back and forth between the over and Cal -13.5 1H. Then the line moved so I took Hawaii +21. They're back to the old Hawaii offense so I think they score enough points on a bad Cal D replacing the #1 overall pick at QB.
Posted by BeYou
DFW
Member since Oct 2012
6024 posts
Posted on 8/26/16 at 9:38 pm to
I've been avoiding this thread because I've been pretty busy in real life but I took Hawaii at +21.5. They lost their best defensive player this past offseason because he was kicked off the team but they should have just enough to keep them within 3 TDs, hopefully.
Posted by DallasTiger45
Member since May 2012
8419 posts
Posted on 8/26/16 at 11:03 pm to
They've moved the ball fine, but they need to stop turning the ball over.
Posted by LSUShock
Kansas
Member since Jun 2014
4913 posts
Posted on 8/26/16 at 11:32 pm to
Without cable and starting a company this summer, I haven't spent nearly as much time looking into CFB as I usually do. Took Hawaii +21.5 tonight. Also added Kansas State +15.5 next Friday.
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