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Message
re: CFB Betting Thread: Week 3
Posted on 9/13/19 at 10:54 am to BowDownToLSU
Posted on 9/13/19 at 10:54 am to BowDownToLSU
My Friday night parlay
North Carolina +115
BC 1st half -11.5
Wash St 1st half -6
North Carolina +115
BC 1st half -11.5
Wash St 1st half -6
2
Posted on 9/13/19 at 11:18 am to hubertcumberdale
quote:
W1: 18-4-0
W2: 7-3-0
Only 25-7 on the year? That's pathetic. Since this is your first post in any of the betting threads this year, you need to be posting at least 80% winners.
I myself am 31-2 on the year. Don't worry about asking for proof, since you provided none either.
Posted on 9/13/19 at 11:21 am to LSUAlum2001
I'm going hard at Illinois -7.
I was going to start a thread with this, but I'll put it in here.
Any of you stat nerds/gambling fans ever try to create a chart to help you pick games during the college football season? I drank way too much coffee yesterday and couldn’t shut off the brain last night and started messing around with some statistics to help pick games.
I included these 8 items, ranked each one nationally, then created a weighted average. The heavy weight on roster talent was due to a correlation analysis I did one winning % and roster talent in previous seasons. The ones that change will be updated weekly. I intentionally left out record/win % and any game statistics against Division 2 opponents.
30% weight - Roster Talent Rank (from 247 composite)
10% weight - Returning Offensive Production % (from last season)
10% weight - Returning Defensive Production % (from last season)
10% weight - Offensive Yards Per Play (updated weekly)
10% weight - Defensive Yards Per Play (updated weekly)
10% weight - Points Scored Per Game (updated weekly)
10% weight - Points Allowed Per Game (updated weekly)
10% weight - Strength of Schedule (updated weekly)
I also have two columns that show % of time each team covers the spread this season (updated weekly) and covers the Over (updated weekly)
This allows me to not only create my own ranking of teams, but more importantly compare their respective offensive and defensive units so I can better predict scores against each other.
Here is the top 10 so far if you’re curious
1.LSU
2.Alabama
3.Oregon
4.Clemson
5.Ohio State
6.Georgia
7.Wisconsin
8.Florida
9.USC
10.Baylor
Any statistics you can think of that I should include that I left out?
ETA:
TL:DR -- Basically I just compiled stats to use it to filter by two teams playing each other to see how they match up with each other on both sides of the ball and see how both teams are doing ATS and against the over.
I was going to start a thread with this, but I'll put it in here.
Any of you stat nerds/gambling fans ever try to create a chart to help you pick games during the college football season? I drank way too much coffee yesterday and couldn’t shut off the brain last night and started messing around with some statistics to help pick games.
I included these 8 items, ranked each one nationally, then created a weighted average. The heavy weight on roster talent was due to a correlation analysis I did one winning % and roster talent in previous seasons. The ones that change will be updated weekly. I intentionally left out record/win % and any game statistics against Division 2 opponents.
30% weight - Roster Talent Rank (from 247 composite)
10% weight - Returning Offensive Production % (from last season)
10% weight - Returning Defensive Production % (from last season)
10% weight - Offensive Yards Per Play (updated weekly)
10% weight - Defensive Yards Per Play (updated weekly)
10% weight - Points Scored Per Game (updated weekly)
10% weight - Points Allowed Per Game (updated weekly)
10% weight - Strength of Schedule (updated weekly)
I also have two columns that show % of time each team covers the spread this season (updated weekly) and covers the Over (updated weekly)
This allows me to not only create my own ranking of teams, but more importantly compare their respective offensive and defensive units so I can better predict scores against each other.
Here is the top 10 so far if you’re curious
1.LSU
2.Alabama
3.Oregon
4.Clemson
5.Ohio State
6.Georgia
7.Wisconsin
8.Florida
9.USC
10.Baylor
Any statistics you can think of that I should include that I left out?
ETA:
TL:DR -- Basically I just compiled stats to use it to filter by two teams playing each other to see how they match up with each other on both sides of the ball and see how both teams are doing ATS and against the over.
This post was edited on 9/13/19 at 11:24 am
Posted on 9/13/19 at 11:24 am to airlinehwypanhandler
quote:
nly 25-7 on the year? That's pathetic. Since this is your first post in any of the betting threads this year, you need to be posting at least 80% winners.
I myself am 31-2 on the year. Don't worry about asking for proof, since you provided none either.
lol give me a break. Want me to post screen shots of my account history?
Now where is your proof?
Edit, I think I am actually better than I led on after reviewing the numbers on here
This post was edited on 9/13/19 at 11:31 am
Posted on 9/13/19 at 11:36 am to TheCaterpillar
Might want to factor in turnover margin, the few predictive football models I have looked at weighs turnovers very heavily
Posted on 9/13/19 at 12:11 pm to hubertcumberdale
quote:
Might want to factor in turnover margin, the few predictive football models I have looked at weighs turnovers very heavily
Rankings now...LSU got bumped from the top spot
Alabama
LSU
Oregon
Clemson
Ohio State
Georgia
Wisconsin
Baylor
Michigan St
Penn State
But I agree, ability to create turnovers is a good predictor of winner, especially if all else is fairly even.
This post was edited on 9/13/19 at 12:20 pm
Posted on 9/13/19 at 12:11 pm to hubertcumberdale
Posted on 9/13/19 at 12:31 pm to auzach91
quote:
My Friday night parlay
North Carolina +115
BC 1st half -11.5
Wash St 1st half -6
Like this. Tailing it pretty much.
UNC +3
BC 1st half -11.5
Wash St 1st half -5.5
1.25 to win 7.25
Posted on 9/13/19 at 3:14 pm to hubertcumberdale
quote:
Now where is your proof?
My mans came in droppn big cock on that baw.
Posted on 9/13/19 at 3:20 pm to auzach91
Houston +9.5
BC -11.5 First half
NC St -6.5
Wake -2 first half
Ok St -13.5
Last week went 8/8 with a lot of parlays/teasers with LSU OSU, Auburn and UCF
Best week I've ever had. Hit really big... usually I lose.
Then of course sunday the Lions kill my winning streak
BC -11.5 First half
NC St -6.5
Wake -2 first half
Ok St -13.5
Last week went 8/8 with a lot of parlays/teasers with LSU OSU, Auburn and UCF
Best week I've ever had. Hit really big... usually I lose.
Then of course sunday the Lions kill my winning streak
Posted on 9/13/19 at 3:20 pm to oleyeller
I was hoping the guy would come back and show us his winners but he just switched to posting in other betting threads.
Posted on 9/13/19 at 3:44 pm to hubertcumberdale
Betting for the first time this season. I got BC -20 and UNC ML tonight.
Does anyone use Jeff Sagarin’s ranking when handicapping or looking at lines to play?
Does anyone use Jeff Sagarin’s ranking when handicapping or looking at lines to play?
This post was edited on 9/13/19 at 4:50 pm
Posted on 9/13/19 at 3:47 pm to Sader1990
going with just a couple of picks this week
Bama under 61.5-
USc will not be scoring as bama will be a boa constrictor on this poor lads first real start
Iowa state +1
these games are usually close.. Ames gets gameday for the first time
Charlotte -20 over god awful Umass
may add a few but not likely.
Bama under 61.5-
USc will not be scoring as bama will be a boa constrictor on this poor lads first real start
Iowa state +1
these games are usually close.. Ames gets gameday for the first time
Charlotte -20 over god awful Umass
may add a few but not likely.
Posted on 9/13/19 at 4:57 pm to hubertcumberdale
Nice, post your plays ahead of time if you have any tips we could use.
Posted on 9/13/19 at 5:50 pm to Sader1990
I check them out. I like to subtract the two ratings of the team and give the home team +3 to see where it compares to the line.
Posted on 9/13/19 at 6:01 pm to Pocket Kingz
Glad I’m not the only one losing money
Posted on 9/13/19 at 6:03 pm to auzach91
Lol at that people who picked UNC
Posted on 9/13/19 at 6:13 pm to hubertcumberdale
Damn Hubert...can you start posting all your picks? I need to jump on that gravy train.
This post was edited on 9/13/19 at 6:14 pm
Posted on 9/13/19 at 6:34 pm to SoFunnyItsNot
Wake -2 1st half hits early...
let's win some money
let's win some money
This post was edited on 9/13/19 at 6:35 pm
Posted on 9/13/19 at 6:39 pm to CarolinaGamecock99
Always fade what doesn’t make sense.
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