quote:
I personally lean towards predictive models because they use all available data. But they can bring inherent bias in which I dont like.

I see both sides and just evaluate myself, which many times reinforces my own prejudgments.

I agree with this, and I try to do the same.

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Posted by shel311

McKinney, Texas

Member since Aug 2004

110828 posts

Posted on 11/18/19 at 7:06 pm to KosmoCramer

quote:
It's actually the exact opposite. Understanding the flaws of data is much more powerful.

It's definitely better to just understand the flaws instead of fixing them.

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Posted by OldmanBeasley

Charlotte

Member since Jun 2014

9694 posts

Posted on 11/18/19 at 7:11 pm to xiv

quote:
Feel free to tell is about them sometime.

So because I don’t agree with you, I must be to stupid to understand how numbers and statistics work?

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Posted by gobuxgo5

Member since Nov 2012

10028 posts

Posted on 11/18/19 at 7:12 pm to KosmoCramer

XIV's Top 25:

quote:
1 Clemson 2623
2 LSU 2561
3 Ohio St 2540
4 Penn St 2429
5 Florida 2416
6 Georgia 2385
7 Cincinnati 2375
8 Notre Dame 2343
9 Oregon 2340
10 SMU 2333
11 Alabama 2328
12 Minnesota 2323
13 Utah 2321
14 Oklahoma 2318
15 Michigan 2315
16 Boise St 2307
17 Baylor 2304
18 Memphis 2300
19 Wisconsin 2298
20 USC 2257
21 Auburn 2247
22 Appalachian St 2245
23 Iowa 2199
24 Air Force 2193

I combined XIV's Top 25 with 3 year average recruiting classes by tiers. You get a bump in ranking by achieving the tier, then beating others in these tiers.

Tier 1 Recruiting Classes: (over 3 year span)

4% bump
Georgia
Alabama
osu

Tier 2 Recuiting Classes (3% bump)

Oklahoma
LSU
USC

Tier 3 (2% bump)

texas
michigan
florida
texas am
clemson
auburn
penn state
notre dame
oregon
FSU

Tier 4: (1% bump)

tenn
washington
south Carolina
miss st

Adjusted Top 18:

1.LSU. (received a 14% bump for wins and recruiting average over 3 year span)
2.Clemson
3.Ohio St
4.Georgia
5.Alabama
6.Florida
7.Penn St
8.Notre Dame
9.Oregon
10.Oklahoma
11.Michigan
12.Auburn
13.USC
14.Cincinnati
15.Wisconsin
16.Minnesota
17.Utah
18.SMU

I would need to account more for losses probably as USC has no business being #13 lol.

* I didn't add in a proper bump for Alabama. Adjusted.

This post was edited on 11/18/19 at 7:36 pm

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Posted by xiv

Parody. #AdminsRule

Member since Feb 2004

39508 posts

Posted on 11/18/19 at 7:16 pm to shel311

Gotta say, you’re not really adding much here, and it’s obvious that it’s because you don’t really know what you’re talking about. Some of us have our biases and an acute knowledge of the material; you appear to have only your bias.

How many spreadsheets do you have open right now? Is it zero?

This post was edited on 11/18/19 at 7:20 pm

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Posted by xiv

Parody. #AdminsRule

Member since Feb 2004

39508 posts

Posted on 11/18/19 at 7:18 pm to gobuxgo5

quote:
XIV's Top 25:

Good stuff, but that’s not “my” top 25. That’s just a quick power ranking I made based on the LHSAA method.

Here’s my real top 25 in case it matters to you:

1 LSU
2 Ohio St
3 Clemson
4 Penn St
5 Georgia
6 Notre Dame
7 Cincinnati
8 Michigan
9 Wisconsin
10 Oregon
11 SMU
12 Alabama
13 Minnesota
14 Oklahoma
15 Utah
16 Boise St
17 Florida
18 Auburn
19 Baylor
20 Memphis
21 Iowa
22 Appalachian St
23 USC
24 Air Force
25 Texas

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Posted by gobuxgo5

Member since Nov 2012

10028 posts

Posted on 11/18/19 at 7:19 pm to xiv

Do you have the points with those? I used that for my math in your last post.

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Posted by shel311

McKinney, Texas

Member since Aug 2004

110828 posts

Posted on 11/18/19 at 7:19 pm to xiv

quote:
Gotta say, you’re not really adding much here, and it’s obvious that it’s because you don’t really know what you’re talking about. Some of us have our biases and an a cute knowledge of the material; you appear to have only your bias.

How many spreadsheets do you have open right now? Is it zero?

That's "a cute" post.

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Posted by xiv

Parody. #AdminsRule

Member since Feb 2004

39508 posts

Posted on 11/18/19 at 7:19 pm to OldmanBeasley

quote:
So because I don’t agree with you, I must be to stupid to understand how numbers and statistics work?

No one is saying that but you.

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Posted by shel311

McKinney, Texas

Member since Aug 2004

110828 posts

Posted on 11/18/19 at 7:19 pm to OldmanBeasley

quote:
So because I don’t agree with you, I must be to stupid to understand how numbers and statistics work?

Seems like a common theme he's throwing out.

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Posted by shel311

McKinney, Texas

Member since Aug 2004

110828 posts

Posted on 11/18/19 at 7:20 pm to xiv

quote:
No one is saying that but you.

I bet you thought he had 0 spreadsheets up to, right?

At least own your statements when taking shots at people, don't back off like you're doing. Keep at it, own it.

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Posted by OldmanBeasley

Charlotte

Member since Jun 2014

9694 posts

Posted on 11/18/19 at 7:21 pm to xiv

quote:
Here’s my real top 25 in case it matters to you:

Is this based strictly on numbers or is this your personal top 25?
Not trying to be a dick by the way

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Posted by BillyBobfan24_7

R.I.P. SGT Nelson

Member since May 2004

18065 posts

Posted on 11/18/19 at 7:21 pm to KosmoCramer

quote:
So kindly, don't put words in my mouth

Clearly prefers cock.

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Posted by xiv

Parody. #AdminsRule

Member since Feb 2004

39508 posts

Posted on 11/18/19 at 7:22 pm to gobuxgo5

1 LSU SEC 10 0 1.00000
2 Ohio St B10 10 0 0.99901
3 Clemson ACC 11 0 0.96079
4 Penn St B10 9 1 0.91359
5 Georgia SEC 9 1 0.88248
6 Notre Dame FBSI 8 2 0.87084
7 Cincinnati AAC 9 1 0.86507
8 Michigan B10 8 2 0.84535
9 Wisconsin B10 8 2 0.84386
10 Oregon P12 9 1 0.83981
11 SMU AAC 9 1 0.83441
12 Alabama SEC 9 1 0.83106
13 Minnesota B10 9 1 0.82466
14 Oklahoma B12 9 1 0.82091
15 Utah P12 9 1 0.82051
16 Boise St MWC 9 1 0.81523
17 Florida SEC 9 2 0.81323
18 Auburn SEC 7 3 0.81001
19 Baylor B12 9 1 0.80665
20 Memphis AAC 9 1 0.80491
21 Iowa B10 7 3 0.77007
22 Appalachian St SBC 9 1 0.76372
23 USC P12 7 4 0.76305
24 Air Force MWC 8 2 0.74255
25 Texas B12 6 4 0.68964
26 Louisville ACC 6 4 0.67964
27 Wake Forest ACC 7 3 0.67930
28 BYU FBSI 6 4 0.67913
29 Louisiana SBC 8 2 0.67695
30 Navy AAC 7 2 0.67394
31 Utah St MWC 6 4 0.66798
32 Oklahoma St B12 7 3 0.66737
33 Temple AAC 7 3 0.65520
34 Washington P12 6 4 0.65517
35 Pittsburgh ACC 7 3 0.65256
36 Marshall CUSA 7 3 0.64910
37 Iowa St B12 6 4 0.64576
38 Miami FL ACC 6 4 0.63779
39 Florida St ACC 6 5 0.63652
40 Texas A&M SEC 7 3 0.63596
41 UCF AAC 7 3 0.63417
42 Virginia ACC 7 3 0.63320
43 FL Atlantic CUSA 7 3 0.63086
44 San Diego St MWC 8 2 0.61770
45 Kansas St B12 6 4 0.60638
46 Hawaii MWC 7 4 0.59637
47 W Michigan MAC 7 4 0.59493
48 Miami OH MAC 6 4 0.59465
49 Mississippi St SEC 4 6 0.58831
50 Indiana B10 7 3 0.58724
51 Tennessee SEC 5 5 0.58447
52 Illinois B10 6 4 0.57981
53 Michigan St B10 4 6 0.57920
54 Ga Southern SBC 6 4 0.57674
55 Louisiana Tech CUSA 8 2 0.57568
56 Southern Miss CUSA 7 3 0.57152
57 Tulane AAC 6 4 0.56511
58 Arkansas St SBC 6 4 0.56367
59 TCU B12 5 5 0.55052
60 Virginia Tech ACC 7 3 0.54668
61 Georgia St SBC 6 4 0.54454
62 North Carolina ACC 4 6 0.54389
63 Nevada MWC 6 4 0.53940
64 UCLA P12 4 6 0.53696
65 California P12 5 5 0.53048
66 Tulsa AAC 3 7 0.52287
67 Wyoming MWC 6 4 0.52222
68 WKU CUSA 6 4 0.51736
69 Kentucky SEC 5 5 0.51515
70 Oregon St P12 5 5 0.51462
71 C Michigan MAC 7 4 0.50773
72 Toledo MAC 6 4 0.49892
73 South Carolina SEC 4 7 0.49271
74 Boston College ACC 5 5 0.49255
75 Arizona St P12 5 5 0.48661
76 Colorado P12 4 6 0.47314
77 Nebraska B10 4 6 0.47215
78 Purdue B10 4 6 0.47035
79 Stanford P12 4 6 0.46712
80 Missouri SEC 5 5 0.46520
81 Buffalo MAC 5 5 0.46051
82 South Florida AAC 4 6 0.45706
83 Washington St P12 5 5 0.45258
84 West Virginia B12 4 6 0.44056
85 Maryland B10 3 7 0.43632
86 ULM SBC 4 6 0.43029
87 Duke ACC 4 6 0.42902
88 Arizona P12 4 6 0.42431
89 Syracuse ACC 4 6 0.42420
90 Ohio MAC 4 6 0.41820
91 E Michigan MAC 5 5 0.41808
92 Charlotte CUSA 5 5 0.41766
93 Fresno St MWC 4 6 0.41391
94 Houston AAC 3 7 0.41336
95 UAB CUSA 7 3 0.41125
96 Mississippi SEC 4 7 0.41079
97 NC State ACC 4 6 0.40620
98 Texas Tech B12 4 6 0.40187
99 Ball St MAC 4 6 0.39363
100 San Jose St MWC 4 6 0.38891
101 Troy SBC 5 5 0.37400
102 Coastal Car SBC 4 6 0.37179
103 Kent MAC 4 6 0.35733
104 North Texas CUSA 4 6 0.35101
105 Rutgers B10 2 8 0.35011
106 Army FBSI 5 6 0.34620
107 Florida Intl CUSA 5 5 0.34535
108 Texas St SBC 3 7 0.34359
109 Kansas B12 3 7 0.34293
110 Liberty FBSI 6 4 0.33763
111 Georgia Tech ACC 2 8 0.33520
112 Colorado St MWC 4 6 0.33143
113 MTSU CUSA 3 7 0.32739
114 N Illinois MAC 4 6 0.32693
115 Bowling Green MAC 3 7 0.32157
116 UT San Antonio CUSA 4 6 0.30691
117 Vanderbilt SEC 2 8 0.30622
118 East Carolina AAC 3 7 0.30350
119 Rice CUSA 1 9 0.27026
120 Northwestern B10 2 8 0.26974
121 Arkansas SEC 2 8 0.25368
122 Connecticut AAC 2 8 0.24094
123 New Mexico MWC 2 8 0.23693
124 UNLV MWC 2 8 0.21830
125 South Alabama SBC 1 9 0.20355
126 Old Dominion CUSA 1 9 0.17255
127 New Mexico St FBSI 1 9 0.15065
128 UTEP CUSA 1 9 0.14121
129 Akron MAC 0 10 0.03319
130 Massachusetts FBSI 1 10 0.0000

Sorry for the wall of goo. I’m on my phone at a Southern basketball game. Minidome is rockin.

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Posted by xiv

Parody. #AdminsRule

Member since Feb 2004

39508 posts

Posted on 11/18/19 at 7:23 pm to OldmanBeasley

That’s my formula’s rankings. I don’t really do an eyeball test ranking.

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Posted by xiv

Parody. #AdminsRule

Member since Feb 2004

39508 posts

Posted on 11/18/19 at 7:24 pm to shel311

quote:
I bet you thought he had 0 spreadsheets up to, right?

At least own your statements when taking shots at people, don't back off like you're doing. Keep at it, own it.

I’m not interested in this particular conversation you’re trying to have with me.

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Posted by OldmanBeasley

Charlotte

Member since Jun 2014

9694 posts

Posted on 11/18/19 at 7:26 pm to xiv

quote:
That’s my formula’s rankings. I don’t really do an eyeball test ranking

You definitely seem to put a lot of time and effort into this so kudos for that. Do you disagree with any of the rankings in your model?

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Posted by gobuxgo5

Member since Nov 2012

10028 posts

Posted on 11/18/19 at 7:28 pm to xiv

xiv thanks. I don't need to duplicate post, see above for my poll and breakdown of adding a 3 year recruiting average ranking as a way to weight teams.

This post was edited on 11/18/19 at 7:35 pm

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Posted by xiv

Parody. #AdminsRule

Member since Feb 2004

39508 posts

Posted on 11/18/19 at 7:34 pm to OldmanBeasley

quote:
Do you disagree with any of the rankings in your model?

Not important, and i don’t spend much time thinking of it in those terms. Any opinion I can give you can hear screamed at you by Stephen A or Skip or whatever, and the next day I might flip flop on it.

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Posted by Draconian Sanctions