re: Bracketology - UPDATED 3/15

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Baloo

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It's time for you to make yours so I can argue with you about putting Vermont as a 9 seed!

Remember that? That was back in '05 or so...

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Can't wait for another Memphis-Ville matchup

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As I said, the committe will bring em together if the seeds match. I think it'd make one helluva game.

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who do you think would get in if it came down to Miami or Tennessee?

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Tough one. Both have impressive wins and both have underachievd in league play. Both are doing just enough to stay afloat. Right now, though, I'd have to give the nod to UT.

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5 VA Tech vs 12 George Mason

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Battle of the 'I wish I got into UVa's"

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Long Gone/Forget about it:

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Notre Dame

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I think ND put themselves back squarely on the bubble after last night.

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WVU got back into a more solid spot if they can hold on against Nova. Big East projection right now: uconn, marquette, pitt, syracuse, villanova, cincinnati, wvu.

Bubble: Georgetown, providence, notre dame (in that order)

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Yep, WVU needed this win and they don't have to do a whol lot more except fight for seed. They have the 6th most difficult schedule in the country and their losses are to great teams. They were the only Big Esast team that had to play Pitt/Louisville twice. They cooled off the hottest team in the country tonight. Any loss WVU has is to a top 25 team and Kentucky.

There's just no way that anyone can have WVU out right now.


LOCK:

U Conn
L'ville
Marquette
Nova
Pitt

CLOSE TO A LOCK:

Syracuse

BUBBLE, BUT LIKELY:

West Virginia
Cincinnati

OTHERSIDE OF THE BUBBLE:

Georgetown
Providence

MIRACLE NEEDED:

Notre Dame
Seton Hall

Analysis from Saturday (2:12 pm)

Georgetown with a nice comeback in the Carrier Dome, but in the end you have to win the game. G'Town very much out of it right now at 4-8. Syracuse was desperate for a win, so this was big for the Orange.

The race for the auto bid in the CAA got blown wide open by George Mason's win over Northeastern. If VCU can take care of Old Dominion, there will be a logjam at the top. All are bubble teams in an at-large sense, but could make for some interesting action into March.

No more doubt for Arizona. The Wildcats are in, probably in the 10-seed range. A great week with a win over another bubble team (USC) and the pre-season Pac-10 favorite (UCLA). It's also possible that they could still win the Pac-10. After this game, Washington (9-3) is only 1.5 games ahead of Arizona (8-5) in fifth place.

UCLA, meanwhile, drops near the bottom of the pecking order in 3-seed land, and maybe even as far down as a 4. Not a good week for the Bruins at all.

More from Saturday:

Penn State with one they badly needed at home against Minnesota. These two teams will play again, and the second matchup could be bigger for both teams. Penn State is still likely right on the edge of in/out, but we'll know more about that by the end of the day, and weekend.

Nebraska...yuck. In a big game for them, they took one on the chin at Mizzou. By the end of the day they'll probably be somewhere in my last five out, maybe farther down. Fortunately for the Huskers, they have a manageable schedule remaining with the toughest game at Kansas next Saturday. They could, theoretically be in the 10-6 range by Big 12 tourney time. Then, they'd at least get serious consideration on the bubble.

Back to USC, they are hurt right now. I could have them as one of the first teams out by the end of the day. A loss tomorrow at Arizona State would be painful. A win, however...

Texas tried every way they could to lose to Colorado, but fortunately for them the Buffs are just bad enough not to take advantage. The Horns are very much in, but their stock is pretty weak at the moment.

Notes from Saturday

Georgetown - Close, but no cigar. They are reeling in a bad way and have a long way to go if they are to get into the dance. They will have to go on a run at MSG.

Projected seed: OUT

Arizona - No team's stock rose higher this week than that of the Arizona Wildcats. Before the week, they were barely in or barely out depending on who you ask. Now they are solidly in after wins over another bubble team (USC) and the preseason favorite (UCLA).

Projected seed: 10

UCLA - On the opposite hand, UCLA got dragged down in a bad way this week. A 3/4 candidate before the week, now they continue to drop.

Projected seed: 5

Nebraska - Looked promising earlier in the week, but they got trashed in Columbia. Coach Sadler's guys left everything they had in the midweek.

Projected seed: OUT

Penn State - Big time win for PSU over Minnesota. They are inching closer to the field of 65, and Wednesday's tussle at Illinois could be the defining factor as they begin a tough week (also at Ohio State). Right now, just barely on the outside.

Projected seed: First Five OUT

Kansas State - Have lost 25 of 26 at home to KU after Saturday's loss. This could have all but locked K-State in the dance, but now it looks tricky for them. They have a very favorable schedule remaining, so they should be okay, but one more slip up (that isn't to Missouri) could spell doom.

Projected seed: 11

Mississippi State - Pisces had them on the brink, I have them not even close. They need a lot of work, but do have games against 3 of the top 4 teams in the SEC East remaining.

Projected seed: Way OUT

Providence - After Cincy's loss today, the Friars are the last team in from the Big East, but they have hell ahead of them. For now, in. But that could be different after next week (@Louisville, vs. Notre Dame).

Projected seed: 12

Virginia Tech - Starting to slip after today's loss to Maryland. They appear content to ride that win over Wake Forest for as long as they can. Unfortunately, that is going to run its course before long. They have a daunting task ahead of them in the last five (after Wednesday's rivalry game at UVA). They could be bubble-bound soon.

Projected seed: 10

LSU - Not on the bubble, but not even the More Sports Board can ignore our boys from the PMAC. Gutsy win coming back against Ole Miss to hold serve at home and go three clear in the SEC West. Will be ranked in both polls next week, could be as high as 20. LSU rising fast on the board.

Projected seed: 7

BYU - As of right now, the very last team in, ahead of Penn State and USC. Any of those three could be the last one in, but the trend is toward the Mountain West at the time. Logjam for the second and third bids in the Mtn. West.

Projected seed: 12

Utah State - Well, didn't see that one coming. The Aggies' 19-game win streak came crashing to an end at Boise State, last year's WAC champion. With Utah State's weak résumé, could this cost them a potential at-large bid (should they need it)? Maybe. They are 24-2, 12-1, but their only wins are over Utah and ... well, Utah. Only other loss is to BYU, another borderline team. A win at St. Mary's may not mean as much now in the BracketBuster next weekend, but it will be a VERY interesting thing to watch. I would guess, if the season ended now and Utah State lost in the conference title game, they would get in. Barely.

Projected seed: 13

Wisconsin - Some good work the last couple of weeks and the Badgers are solidly back in the dance. Should be able to win at Indiana on Thursday, but next Sunday's game at Michigan State looms large.

Projected seed: 10

Davidson - Another interesting one, possibly under the Patty Mills injury category. Stephen Curry went out of the Wildcats' win over Furman with a sprained ankle. Without him, they have nothing. Without him, they could still be given a bid, depending on the size of collapse, if there is one. We have to wait and see. Right now, they'd be in as an at-large, but time will tell here.

Projected seed: 9

Just updated...will discuss more tomorrow