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Bet question for the day..

Posted on 2/6/24 at 8:11 pm
Posted by Blutarsky
112th Congress
Member since Jan 2004
9500 posts
Posted on 2/6/24 at 8:11 pm
4/5 on a $50 parlay to win $1K

San Diego St -9.5 over Air Force to close it out.

How much would you hedge on AF?
Posted by 3D
NJ
Member since Sep 2013
1025 posts
Posted on 2/6/24 at 8:13 pm to
$100. or 350
Posted by TheWalrus
Member since Dec 2012
40326 posts
Posted on 2/6/24 at 8:16 pm to
200
Posted by Tigers0891
Baton Rouge
Member since Aug 2017
6504 posts
Posted on 2/6/24 at 8:18 pm to
Can’t answer that with your post. Is a grand a lot for you , would it cover a car note , a mortgage?

Is it fun money ?

All relative.
Posted by Tvilletiger
PVB
Member since Oct 2015
4648 posts
Posted on 2/6/24 at 8:18 pm to
What are they offering?
Posted by TheWalrus
Member since Dec 2012
40326 posts
Posted on 2/6/24 at 8:20 pm to
Whatever they are offering, you can lock in more with a hedge.
Posted by Blutarsky
112th Congress
Member since Jan 2004
9500 posts
Posted on 2/6/24 at 8:25 pm to
I’ll wait until 9:20 or so.

Depending on how some other things go, I could already be up $1.1K for the week heading into the SDSU game.
Posted by Buckeye Fan 19
Member since Dec 2007
36156 posts
Posted on 2/6/24 at 8:36 pm to
$250 AF spread
$100 AF ML

$600 profit (after factoring in initial $50 bet) if SDSU covers.

$100 profit if SDSU wins by single digits.

I’m guessing probably around $500-600 profit if AF wins without knowing exact ML, just based on the spread.
Posted by Blutarsky
112th Congress
Member since Jan 2004
9500 posts
Posted on 2/6/24 at 8:54 pm to
ML is +375

If AF managed to win SU, it would be +575 (minus the $50) and +625 with the parlay if SDSU covers.

Probably just do something like AF +9.5 for $400/$364 so it’ll be $314 (minus $50) or $600.

I don’t think AF has a chance to win SU.
Posted by BeachDude022
Premium Elite Platinum TD Member
Member since Dec 2006
34755 posts
Posted on 2/6/24 at 8:57 pm to
350
Posted by Seeing Grey
Member since Sep 2015
587 posts
Posted on 2/6/24 at 9:09 pm to
quote:

How much would you hedge on AF?


$0


If you're gonna parlay for a big payday, dont puss out and hedge. Unless something changed, hedging will always be -ev.
Posted by The Seaward
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2006
11345 posts
Posted on 2/6/24 at 9:13 pm to
From a pure math perspective, hedging is a negative EV play, so it all comes to down to personal tolerances like how important that money is to you and mentally how upset would you be walking away with nothing. I’d probably hedge a little because I know I would find losing it at this point super tilting.
This post was edited on 2/6/24 at 9:14 pm
Posted by Blutarsky
112th Congress
Member since Jan 2004
9500 posts
Posted on 2/6/24 at 9:33 pm to
Well, even though the game won’t tip until 9:40, they took it off the board so it’s ride or die with -9.5.

I was only going to hedge $300/$272
Posted by BamaCoaster
God's Gulf
Member since Apr 2016
5241 posts
Posted on 2/6/24 at 10:24 pm to
Looking good for ya so far.
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