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re: Basketball Bet Thread 12/12
Posted on 12/12/12 at 2:36 pm to maclauer
Posted on 12/12/12 at 2:36 pm to maclauer
Nothing I really like in College tonight, I have Towson as 14 pt dogs and they are getting 17.
I have Fresno losing by 1 and they are getting 3. Not enough value on either one to bet straight up, may tease the two together as one play.
NBA has a lot to offer tonight.
My favorite play on the board is Chicago +2.5.
Chicago is a terrible matchup for Philly, they struggle with teams that like to play low scoring defensive battles, aka the Bulls. My matchup spreadsheet has the Bulls as the worst opponent in the league for the Sixers.
Denver +3.5
Bad matchup for Minnesota, their struggles have come against up-tempo teams that score in bunches, Denver should win this one outright.
I have Fresno losing by 1 and they are getting 3. Not enough value on either one to bet straight up, may tease the two together as one play.
NBA has a lot to offer tonight.
My favorite play on the board is Chicago +2.5.
Chicago is a terrible matchup for Philly, they struggle with teams that like to play low scoring defensive battles, aka the Bulls. My matchup spreadsheet has the Bulls as the worst opponent in the league for the Sixers.
Denver +3.5
Bad matchup for Minnesota, their struggles have come against up-tempo teams that score in bunches, Denver should win this one outright.
4
Posted on 12/12/12 at 3:10 pm to dgtiger3
I'm capping Ohio State at -28. Hit with Nova yesterday. Let's make it 2 in a row. 
Posted on 12/12/12 at 4:50 pm to Boomdat
final nba slate tonight:
Wizards +10.5
Cavs +8.5
Grizzliesw -6.5
Hawks -4
Wizards +10.5
Cavs +8.5
Grizzliesw -6.5
Hawks -4
Posted on 12/12/12 at 4:55 pm to dgtiger3
Took the Bulls and Fresno MLs
First nba game of my young betting career
First nba game of my young betting career
This post was edited on 12/12/12 at 5:15 pm
Posted on 12/12/12 at 5:19 pm to Bryant91092
NBA betting will drive almost anyone crazy, your going to get bad beats, it's just part of it.
But there are good bets out there if you can find the right matchups and numbers.
But there are good bets out there if you can find the right matchups and numbers.
Posted on 12/12/12 at 5:37 pm to dgtiger3
quote:
Chicago is a terrible matchup for Philly, they struggle with teams that like to play low scoring defensive battles, aka the Bulls. My matchup spreadsheet has the Bulls as the worst opponent in the league for the Sixers.
I don't know where you are getting this from. Philly knocked the Bulls out of the playoffs last year.
Posted on 12/12/12 at 6:10 pm to Zipfer2022
quote:
I don't know where you are getting this from. Philly knocked the Bulls out of the playoffs last year.
I designed a spread sheet that takes this team W-L Profile Sheet from 82games and pinpoints the strengths and weaknesses of each team and how they matchup versus each opponent in the league.
You are right the Sixers knocked the Bulls out of the Playoffs last year, but they had just lost D.Rose and I think the Bulls couldn't regroup mentally after that, this Sixers team roster has changed with the departure of Iggy as well.
Yes this spreadsheet is a small sample size as the season is still young. But the Sixers weaknesses this year have been playing teams that slow down the pace (2-6 record with a -8.1 margin) and teams that have a good Def eFG% have gave them fits (0-4 record with -11.8 margin) compared to opponents with a bad D eFG% (7-1 record with a 6.1 margin)
I've had some success using this method the last two weeks, and I am by no means a professional. But I would say it is my favorite hobby and I put a lot of time trying to perfect my "craft"
I guess by me saying that the Bulls are the worst matchup for Philly in the league, I should clarify this Bulls team best fits the traits of an opponent that gives this Philly teams the most problems this season.
Good Luck tonight guys!
This post was edited on 12/12/12 at 6:22 pm
Posted on 12/12/12 at 6:13 pm to dgtiger3
Only play so far:
Ohio St. - 21.5
Ohio St. - 21.5
Posted on 12/12/12 at 6:21 pm to dgtiger3
quote:
Yes this spreadsheet is a small sample size as the season is still young. But the Sixers weaknesses this year have been playing teams that slow down the pace (2-6 record with a -8.1 margin) and teams that have a good Def eFG% have gave them fits (0-4 record with -11.8 margin) compared to opponents with a bad D eFG% (7-1 record with a 6.1 margin)
My numbers say the Bulls win straight-up but qualitative factors made this a no-play: 2nd leg of a back-to-back on the road (a situation they are 0-1 in so far this season), while Philly has been home since Saturday night.
Granted, small sample size on the 0-1 but considering they basically have to win straight-up to cover, it made it unattractive to me. Bulls are 2-5 ATS this year as dogs (1-3 as a road dog).
BOL
Posted on 12/12/12 at 6:27 pm to maclauer
quote:
2nd leg of a back-to-back on the road (a situation they are 0-1 in so far this season), while Philly has been home since Saturday night.
All things that should be considered without a doubt, I just really like the Bulls in this one.
Here is a fun little If-Win Bet I put on First Half lines of the teams I liked that matchup of.
IF WIN ONLY STRAIGHT BET
[1703] 1H HAWKS (ATLANTA) -2½-115
THEN STRAIGHT BET
[1701] 1H NETS (BROOKLYN) -4-110
[1726] 1H JAZZ (UTAH) +2-115
[1723] 1H GRIZZLIES (MEMPHIS) -3½-105
[1713] 1H NUGGETS (DENVER) +2-105
[1707] 1H BULLS (CHICAGO) +1-110
[1709] 1H CLIPPERS (LOS ANGELES) -4½-105
I put the Nuggets and Bulls towards the bottom because I've already bet both pretty heavily tonight.
This post was edited on 12/12/12 at 6:29 pm
Posted on 12/12/12 at 6:36 pm to dgtiger3
Adding Wisc-Green Bay +17.5
Posted on 12/12/12 at 7:35 pm to maclauer
Pacers on a 14-0 run 
ETA: make it 18-0. A 15 point lead is now a 3 point deficit
ETA: make it 18-0. A 15 point lead is now a 3 point deficit
This post was edited on 12/12/12 at 7:40 pm
Posted on 12/12/12 at 7:59 pm to maclauer
Towson with the cover
Posted on 12/12/12 at 7:59 pm to maclauer
frick the Cavs. 14 mins ago they were up on the spread by 23, now down by 2.
Posted on 12/12/12 at 8:11 pm to maclauer
Sorry for late posting tonight, tailing BTB on NBA except warriors took Ohio state -23 and still haven't decided on Oregon state ML tonight.
ETA: looking good so far :knockonwood:
ETAA: and added bulls +2
ETA: looking good so far :knockonwood:
ETAA: and added bulls +2
This post was edited on 12/12/12 at 8:14 pm
Posted on 12/12/12 at 8:42 pm to memphstigers23
Added Fresno st +1
Posted on 12/12/12 at 9:28 pm to maclauer
what a fricking bullshite push
frick you corey brewer
frick you corey brewer
Posted on 12/12/12 at 9:28 pm to maclauer
Nuggets somehow covered
Posted on 12/12/12 at 9:30 pm to Louie T
motherfrickers
Posted on 12/12/12 at 9:32 pm to maclauer
Wow what a finish, finally caught a fricking break. 2-0 +4 units! I also had two 8 point three team teasers for 1.5 units each with Bulls-Nuggets paired with Clippers and paired with Memphis. Memphis win will put me up 7 units on the day.
Adding Jazz +2 1H 1 Unit.
Adding Jazz +2 1H 1 Unit.
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