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re: ATL Thread 8/6 | Brewers @ Braves

Posted on 8/6/25 at 10:35 pm to
Posted by td01241
Savannah
Member since Nov 2012
27892 posts
Posted on 8/6/25 at 10:35 pm to
Do we think our interest in buxton at the deadline gives us any insight into AAs plan for the offseason?

To me it says I think he is planning to make a move for a big piece. It could also be he just intends to acquire talent and make the Dh very fluid. It could mean an outfield reshuffle where we could see him move on from either profar or maybe even Harris (although he’s been way better since the AS break). It could also mean Ozzie is done in Atlanta since his contract is done with two more team options, and moving profar to second base
Posted by Broski
Member since Jun 2011
79010 posts
Posted on 8/6/25 at 10:48 pm to
quote:

Getting less ABs leads to less potential for stats, it's pretty common sense.


That's not how it works at all

quote:

He could very easily lose ROY because he gets a game or two less ABs a week the rest of the way


Jesus frick
This post was edited on 8/6/25 at 10:49 pm
Posted by auyushu
Surprise, AZ
Member since Jan 2011
9706 posts
Posted on 8/7/25 at 1:33 am to
quote:

That's not how it works at all 


WTF kinda stupidity are you posting here, the less ABs you have you literally have less chances to earn WAR and counting stats, which determines ROY. Acting like some guy who has 350-400 ABs has as easy of a time earning WAR as some guy with 500+ ABs is just defying logic.
Posted by td01241
Savannah
Member since Nov 2012
27892 posts
Posted on 8/7/25 at 6:41 am to
I guess no one cared about my musings of our off season analysis
Posted by VADawg
Wherever
Member since Nov 2011
47697 posts
Posted on 8/7/25 at 7:05 am to
quote:

I guess no one cared about my musings of our off season analysis


I do think a relatively big shakeup is coming. My bold offseason prediction is Baldwin gets traded, not Murphy. He is probably the most valuable trade chip on this roster not named Acuna or Schwellenbach, who are both untouchable to me.

I think AA is going to take a big swing at another starting pitcher and/or a corner outfielder with Profar moving to 2B, and Baldwin is the easiest way to go get someone. Since they were talking to the Twins at the deadline, I'm guessing they're going to make a run at Pablo Lopez or Joe Ryan.
Posted by VolSquatch
First Coast
Member since Sep 2023
7630 posts
Posted on 8/7/25 at 7:06 am to
8 games in a row coming up between the Fish and the Mets. What is our record in those games? 3-5? Am I being overly optimistic?
Posted by VADawg
Wherever
Member since Nov 2011
47697 posts
Posted on 8/7/25 at 7:06 am to
Marlins might take 4/5 from us
Posted by Tiger Ugly
Baton Rouge
Member since Jul 2008
17699 posts
Posted on 8/7/25 at 7:09 am to
I'm thinking the Brewers might not lose again this year?
Posted by VolSquatch
First Coast
Member since Sep 2023
7630 posts
Posted on 8/7/25 at 7:11 am to
quote:

I do think a relatively big shakeup is coming. My bold offseason prediction is Baldwin gets traded, not Murphy. He is probably the most valuable trade chip on this roster not named Acuna or Schwellenbach, who are both untouchable to me.



I actually think this is a smart move. You still have to operate as if you're in a window even if this year (rightfully) gives you doubts going forward. There isn't help in the farm coming. There isn't a huge free agency roster shakeup coming either. You probably have to do something uncomfortable like this inject some life into this team.

People won't like it, but we aren't in a situation where we can make acquisitions that don't feel a little bad like we were a few years ago. And now looking back, we probably should have felt bad about a few of those if we didn't at the time.

Posted by td01241
Savannah
Member since Nov 2012
27892 posts
Posted on 8/7/25 at 7:27 am to
I don’t particularly like the idea of trading Baldwin but your logic is sound.

Something it also does it opens up the DH spot to be way more fluid which is something I touched on earlier. As good as Ronald can be at RF at times even if his underlying metrics say otherwise, it’s going to be particularly important moving forward to have the option to DH him a solid bit due to his already two acl injuries.

As much as it pains me to say this since Ozzie is the longest current tenured braves player, he has been dreadful this year and his performance at 2B is also becoming a problem, particularly his arm has cost us a lot of double plays. His contract is so cheap though I think it would be wise to pick up his team option but he might not be an everyday player if we can’t move profar. He’s been pretty bad in LF but I imagine he would be a defensive improvement at 2B. Harris has shown dramatic improvement post AS break so we won’t be moving on from him and his underlying numbers have been solid all year unlike Ozzie, Harris hits at a near 300 clip when he swings at pitches in the zone. He just need an approach change and it’s one of the best defensive CF in baseball.

One thing is also certain, as good as nick allen is at defense we cannot enter 2026 with him as our SS
Posted by VADawg
Wherever
Member since Nov 2011
47697 posts
Posted on 8/7/25 at 7:30 am to
quote:

his performance at 2B is also becoming a problem, particularly his arm has cost us a lot of double plays


This became very noticeable last season when Whit Merrifield filled in for him. Whit turned several double plays that Ozzie wouldn't have been able to with his long windup and weaker arm.
Posted by td01241
Savannah
Member since Nov 2012
27892 posts
Posted on 8/7/25 at 7:31 am to
The brewers are an extremely well run organization and shows one of the better models in baseball for winning without spending money.

The only critique I have for them is it hasn’t translated into any postseason success whatsoever.
Posted by td01241
Savannah
Member since Nov 2012
27892 posts
Posted on 8/7/25 at 7:34 am to
Yeah and it’s gotten even worse this season imo. Ozzie has always been a very hot and cold hitter who relied heavily on his ability to hit home runs to be a valuable batter.

Idk if it’s his long history of injuries catching up to him or maybe his age but his total drop off in power this year makes him nearly unplayable. I think he has gotten a longer leash than anyone else would though because of what I said above and how much he means in the clubhouse
Posted by VolSquatch
First Coast
Member since Sep 2023
7630 posts
Posted on 8/7/25 at 8:09 am to
I want to live in an alternate reality where he only hits from the right full time for his entire life and see what kind of player he is offensively, just out of curiosity
Posted by td01241
Savannah
Member since Nov 2012
27892 posts
Posted on 8/7/25 at 8:15 am to
Yeah if you look at his career splits it’s insane how much better of a hitter he is right handed.

If you just look at his counting stats like a normie you might not realize it because obviously he has way more AB left handed since there’s way more right handed pitching so he has way more HR from that side, but proportionally he’s a far far better hitter when is batting right handed.

I feel like him and other certain players simply switch hit because they think it’s a novelty that’s cool but it doesn’t actually make them better. It’s hard to prove this objectively since as you said we don’t live in an alternate universe where he has been a right handed hitter only his whole career
Posted by VADawg
Wherever
Member since Nov 2011
47697 posts
Posted on 8/7/25 at 8:21 am to
quote:

If you just look at his counting stats like a normie you might not realize it because obviously he has way more AB left handed since there’s way more right handed pitching so he has way more HR from that side, but proportionally he’s a far far better hitter when is batting right handed.


This is normally true, but the biggest reason for his decline this season is probably that he has been absolutely dreadful hitting right handed. He used to be a borderline MVP caliber hitter from the right side but that simply hasn't been the case this season. Some of his right handed numbers:

.246/.273/.303, .576 OPS, 0 HR(!), 59 wRC+
Posted by td01241
Savannah
Member since Nov 2012
27892 posts
Posted on 8/7/25 at 8:23 am to
Holy shite I didn’t realize he had been that bad from the right side this year. Zero home runs is absolutely ridiculous. He has 12 I think on the year and it’s clown worldish they’ve all be left handed I guess
Posted by Tiger Ugly
Baton Rouge
Member since Jul 2008
17699 posts
Posted on 8/7/25 at 12:50 pm to
quote:

The brewers are an extremely well run organization and shows one of the better models in baseball for winning without spending money.



yep, my fellow Cub fans are always wearing out the front office for not spending but the Brewers spend half of what the Cubs do and have finished ahead of them each of the last 4 years.

Hell, they are spending less than a 1/4 of the what the Phillies, Mets and Dodgers are and are whipping their asses as well!!
Posted by auyushu
Surprise, AZ
Member since Jan 2011
9706 posts
Posted on 8/7/25 at 4:25 pm to
quote:

wise to pick up his team option but he might not be an everyday player if we can’t move profar. He’s been pretty bad in LF but I imagine he would be a defensive improvement at 2B


Man, Profar most certainly can't play 2B. Last time he started at 2B was 2019, and he was the worst defensive 2B in baseball. He had zero range. Ozzie is still at least average to a smidge below defensively. Profar is awful in LF, much less 2B.

Like you said, I can't see them not picking up Ozzie's option given how it's structured. I'll be extremely surprised if he's not our starting 2B. The one thing in our favor is wrist injuries take a while to recover from, and for Ozzie it hasn't even been a full year since he recovered from his, so there is hope the power comes back a bit. Same for Riley.
This post was edited on 8/7/25 at 4:26 pm
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