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re: ...and my gambling career is over now

Posted on 1/12/09 at 10:45 pm to
Posted by sportsinfogeauxlsu
Louisiana
Member since Dec 2006
6300 posts
Posted on 1/12/09 at 10:45 pm to
SpringFun,

where do you look to see the public betting?
Posted by SprintFun
Columbus, OH
Member since Dec 2007
45841 posts
Posted on 1/12/09 at 10:50 pm to
Vegas Insider if I really need to check....so for example: LINK Click on the spread and it will show the movements for various vegas casinos and they have an offshore section too. Usually though I just will check a line a few times a day to see where thee money.
Posted by H-Town Tiger
Member since Nov 2003
61009 posts
Posted on 1/12/09 at 10:53 pm to
All i see is the line at various casinos, where does it show what the public was betting?
Posted by SprintFun
Columbus, OH
Member since Dec 2007
45841 posts
Posted on 1/12/09 at 10:57 pm to
quote:

All i see is the line at various casinos, where does it show what the public was betting?


Well, that takes an educated guess. For example, Pittsburgh for this weekend started out at -4.5 and the line is up to -6, so obviously the public is on Pitt because the line is moving up. Can look at moneylines the same way too and make an educated guess.
Posted by H-Town Tiger
Member since Nov 2003
61009 posts
Posted on 1/12/09 at 11:04 pm to
There are sites that show what percentage of bets are on what side

quote:

Well, that takes an educated guess. For example, Pittsburgh for this weekend started out at -4.5 and the line is up to -6, so obviously the public is on Pitt because the line is moving up.


Not necessarily, A manager from the Sports Book at the Wynn Las Vegas does segments on a radio station here in Houston. He said point blank they don't automatically move a line because the public or majority of bets are on one side. He said they will move a line if certain bettors place bets. 1 or 2 Big Bettors can move a line a lot more than John Q Public, especially this early in the week. Most of the public won't bet this early, but sharps will pounce if they think there is value, if Pitt-Ba;t moved that much after open, my guess it was the sharps and not the public on Pitt.
This post was edited on 1/12/09 at 11:05 pm
Posted by SprintFun
Columbus, OH
Member since Dec 2007
45841 posts
Posted on 1/12/09 at 11:10 pm to
quote:

There are sites that show what percentage of bets are on what side


Yea and most are pay to see though, so I just try to study line movements. Its not an exact thing at all, but nothing in gambling is
Posted by sportsinfogeauxlsu
Louisiana
Member since Dec 2006
6300 posts
Posted on 1/12/09 at 11:39 pm to
sports.com

and thespread.com show public betting percentages


and the line movements don't reflect the public as much as you may think:

for example, when there is an apparent trap game and the public is all over a favor 3 pt road favorite or something, the line will drop to 2-2.5 in prepartion of the 'shark' bets(the people who love to fade the public in trap games) b/c they don't usually bet until right before the game starts
Posted by kfizzle85
Member since Dec 2005
22022 posts
Posted on 1/12/09 at 11:40 pm to
Anybody use something other than betus? I'm there right now, but failed to note the usurious $50 charge for withdrawing any funds, so I'm looking to move my money somewhere else and make that a one-time fee.
Posted by AlejandroInHouston
New Orleans
Member since Apr 2007
18776 posts
Posted on 1/13/09 at 1:11 am to
They were "underdogs" in the sense that you could get them at -3 (-105) all week long. That means on a neutral field Baltimore was considered a half-point favorite, because you always get 3 points for being the home team.

And by the way - Tennessee was clearly the better team all day long. Baltimore winning that game was an aberration. You're lucky if you won that. Pittsburgh was a good bet, Arizona was a good bet, the Eagles were a good bet. Baltimore was a lucky bet.
This post was edited on 1/13/09 at 1:14 am
Posted by sportsinfogeauxlsu
Louisiana
Member since Dec 2006
6300 posts
Posted on 1/13/09 at 1:28 am to
some teams get more than 3 and some teams get less than 3


homefield doesn't mean the same thing for every team
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