re: What’s causing the sudden crypto run up?

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Disappointed because he has changed his position.

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I think he flipped on btc because someone explained to him how it can be used during financial repression. If you read between the lines on what he, Bessent, and others in the admin have said, plus the Genius and Clarity Acts you can see the direction we're headed.

A stablecoin is just a digital Eurodollar and they clearly want to gain control of the Eurodollar market. The Fed and Treasury have wanting to seize control of that from London for decades. LIBOR to SOFI was step one. The substitution of stablecoins approved and regulated by DC for traditional Eurodollars is step 2. What backs a stablecoin? T-bills. The Eurodollar market, on a deposits to deposits basis is estimated at 13-16T. Substitute Eurodollars for stablecoins and you don't need to worry about who's going to keep buying the long end of the yield curve. You can refinance a lot of the debt at the short end.

Curtail long end supply and yields come down. There is a loose relationship between the btc market cap and stablecoin demand. When btc rips, especially with institutional demand, stablecoin market caps swells because that's how big players enter.

This is getting long winded but there's more to it. I think they are going to push btc/ibit as a savings tech for ordinary folks. Save in btc, spend in tether/circle and they're going to push it worldwide. We're at the end of an 80 yr debt cycle and smaller fiat currencies are going to fail and those countries will get carrots if the dollarize (w/ stables). Failed monetary regimes that go Euro or RMB will get sticks.

Now, who holds the stablecoins you're going to spend? Your bank. Does your bank deserve to get 4+% on your money (remember they're backed by high yielding short term bills)? No. frick the banks, who likes them? Nobody. So what do you do if you're Bessent? You skew treasury issuance heavily towards bills and cut rates at the short end to a pittance, 60-70 bips. Presto, your interest expense just plummeted.

This is financial repression 101. Hold rates below nominal growth to inflate your debt away. Everyone holding dollars gets fricked. But...what is going to rip your face off during this inflation? Btc. If you stuff enough of that into pensions, insurance co balance sheets etc...you can conceivably inflate (grow according to Bessent) your way out of the hole while minimizing the riots, pitchforks and social unrest.

Could it work? Maybe. Is it the least bad option given the debt math? Probably. I think that's where they're headed.

I agree with you that he likes the shitcoin grifting aspect too, lol. He and his kids have made a fortune selling garbage to rubes. But the big picture of what Bessent is trying to do is the above imo.