- My Forums
- Tiger Rant
- LSU Recruiting
- SEC Rant
- Saints Talk
- Pelicans Talk
- More Sports Board
- Coaching Changes
- Fantasy Sports
- Golf Board
- Soccer Board
- O-T Lounge
- Tech Board
- Home/Garden Board
- Outdoor Board
- Health/Fitness Board
- Movie/TV Board
- Book Board
- Music Board
- Political Talk
- Money Talk
- Fark Board
- Gaming Board
- Travel Board
- Food/Drink Board
- Ticket Exchange
- TD Help Board
Customize My Forums- View All Forums
- Show Left Links
- Topic Sort Options
- Trending Topics
- Recent Topics
- Active Topics
Started By
Message
re: Weekly Stock Market Plays/Thoughts - March/April
Posted on 3/13/17 at 10:36 pm to bayoubengals88
Posted on 3/13/17 at 10:36 pm to bayoubengals88
again I've said many times, I have no interest in the dogshite microcap market you guys dabble in, so dont take it personally. I think many threads have been started by people I've helped with some long term large cap plays. I mentioned I had a monster stake yesterday in WYNN and today morgan stanley said it could double and it gapped up 5% and its a legit stock that wont offer and spiral down 40% like AUPH is going to this week. Quit taking things so personally, you're about to get hit with 25% dilution on this name and it will be sub $6 very shortly, if you want to hold on be my guest. The title of thread mentions "thoughts". Jim Morrison and I give our thoughts and you get offended. Why dont we just title this thread, agree with bayoubengals about microcap stocks or get the F out.
WTF does $200k have to do with it? Im pretty sure the people who bought V when I mentioned it are up 100% in a legit name. PM too, you're over here tinkering with $1000 positions in trash companies, why dont you just go bet on a basketball game, its the same thing, I bet on tons of sports, bc thats all you're doing by speculating on this trash. That isn't investing in any form, I mentioned TNXP. I saw my friend get the same hype you're getting now it went from 4 to 21 and he said $100 was coming, its 51 cents today and they offered countless times
PS anyone remember that guy posting here about BLUE stock? It was like $200 and i saw it crashed to the 30s, I dont think any biotech is a sure thing to get a buyout EVER until its product is approved. Im sure that $200 stock was a sure thing or so others thought.....
WTF does $200k have to do with it? Im pretty sure the people who bought V when I mentioned it are up 100% in a legit name. PM too, you're over here tinkering with $1000 positions in trash companies, why dont you just go bet on a basketball game, its the same thing, I bet on tons of sports, bc thats all you're doing by speculating on this trash. That isn't investing in any form, I mentioned TNXP. I saw my friend get the same hype you're getting now it went from 4 to 21 and he said $100 was coming, its 51 cents today and they offered countless times
PS anyone remember that guy posting here about BLUE stock? It was like $200 and i saw it crashed to the 30s, I dont think any biotech is a sure thing to get a buyout EVER until its product is approved. Im sure that $200 stock was a sure thing or so others thought.....
This post was edited on 3/13/17 at 10:42 pm
1
Posted on 3/13/17 at 10:51 pm to dabigfella
Just made a bundle today on MobilEye. Bought out by Intel. Up 13 today!!
Posted on 3/13/17 at 10:52 pm to moock blackjack
great trade, I saw it made citron research throw in the white flag on the tesla short as well bc they got crushed on the mobileye short.
Posted on 3/14/17 at 6:44 am to bayoubengals88
AUPH is falling this morning. What's the thoughts for another run to $10 plus today?
This post was edited on 3/14/17 at 7:04 am
Posted on 3/14/17 at 7:11 am to Venison
Guess I won't be making my son AUPHord any time soon.
Posted on 3/14/17 at 7:17 am to Venison
quote:Not likely IMO. Buy below $7.50 for long term hold.
What's the thoughts for another run to $10 plus today?
Posted on 3/14/17 at 7:25 am to bayoubengals88
Offering is 6.75
23 million shares.
Around March 20
23 million shares.
Around March 20
Posted on 3/14/17 at 8:07 am to Venison
quote:
AUPH is falling this morning. What's the thoughts for another run to $10 plus today?
They just had 33% or so dilution announced, a move to $10 today would be equal to a move to $13+ yesterday if it were to happen. If you believe in it long term, go ahead and hold on, but 23 million new shares are being bought soon at $6.75 if you want to pay more than them go ahead.
Posted on 3/14/17 at 8:15 am to rocket31
Whats a good one to watch today for day trades?
Posted on 3/14/17 at 8:23 am to rocket31
quote:Does that mean that share price will definitely hit $6.75 on 20 March, or is it not truly "public"?
Offering is 6.75
23 million shares.
Around March 20
Posted on 3/14/17 at 8:23 am to Venison
im optimistic about CERU, but i got in at $2.15
i just hope to hit big on that and stop for the day.
then ill monitor AUPH
i just hope to hit big on that and stop for the day.
then ill monitor AUPH
This post was edited on 3/14/17 at 8:24 am
Posted on 3/14/17 at 8:27 am to bayoubengals88
quote:
Does that mean that share price will definitely hit $6.75 on 20 March, or is it not truly "public"?
one would think it would go even below the $6.75 - it typically does during a PO
but this thing is holding support at $7.60 according to the chart.
i honestly do not think anyone knows with AUPH
Posted on 3/14/17 at 8:27 am to rocket31
PM is looking rough for CERU
Posted on 3/14/17 at 9:05 am to rocket31
Thoughts on CERC? Sell and cut loss or hang on for a rebound?
Posted on 3/14/17 at 9:21 am to Venison
i avg'd down and will look to exit. gl with whatever you decide.
Posted on 3/14/17 at 10:16 am to dabigfella
quote:From $246 to $50 in less than two years. What do you consider a "spiral down"?
I mentioned I had a monster stake yesterday in WYNN and today morgan stanley said it could double and it gapped up 5% and its a legit stock that wont offer and spiral down 40% like AUPH is going to this week.
Posted on 3/14/17 at 10:29 am to bayoubengals88
quote:
Oh my. Judging from the wails of outrage across Twitter, you'd think Aurinia Pharmaceuticals (AUPH) executives had just been caught hacking into microwave ovens to spy on biotech traders.
Not at all. What Aurinia did Monday night was raise $150 million to fund a late-stage clinical trial of its promising lupus nephritis drug voclosporin. The company pulled the trigger on the much-needed (and expected) financing after the stock had already tripled in price since March 1, closing at an all-time high.
Nicely done, Aurinia.
The traders who had been largely responsible for bidding up Aurinia over the past two weeks were unhappy with the pricing of the stock sale. Aurinia sold 22.3 million shares at $6.75, or a 36% discount to Monday's close of $10.54.
Why the big discount? Because Aurinia executives don't manage the business to serve the interest of traders and their desire to flip the stock for a few bucks' profit. The company's goal was to bring in significant money to fund the development of voclosporin and to build a roster of new institutional shareholders interested in owning the company for the long term.
Going into Monday's deal and as of Dec. 31, Aurinia's institutional ownership was just 15%, according to FactSet. More than half the outstanding shares were owned by insiders.
Aurinia's stock price may have breached $10 per share Monday, but that doesn't mean institutional investors are going to pay a premium for momentum-fueled trading.
Aurinia and its bankers went out last night seeking to raise approximately $100 million. The initial deal terms offered 15 million shares in the range of $6.25 to $6.75, according to investors pitched the offering.
Demand from buyers was strong, allowing Aurinia to upsize the deal to 22.3 million shares, priced at the high end of the range.
Mission accomplished. Don't believe me? Listen to @BiotechHack, a former analyst at a large fundamental-based healthcare hedge fund. He knows how these financings work.
$AUPH this is a well timed financing. At the fund, after the P2 data we would buy some and do a week 24/7 of DD. Doc calls, mgmt mtgs
...and if we liked what we saw we would go in big on a financing for a few million shares. Funds getting in today arent playing for a few dollar move, but a multi-bagger. If you liked that data, this is the time to add. Forget about clipping it for a buck
In Tuesday pre-market trading, Aurinia is trading above the deal price -- down 28% to $7.60. That's another early but positive signal of Aurinia pulling off a smart stock sale.
This post was edited on 3/14/17 at 10:35 am
Posted on 3/14/17 at 10:44 am to bayoubengals88
quote:
From $246 to $50 in less than two years. What do you consider a "spiral down"?
Was I a buyer at $250/share? I wasn't. If you look back at my track record I can value companies quite well. Actually 2 weeks ago in this post you will see me mention this to Iowa Golfer who asked my opinion about WYNN
LINK
quote:
As for WYNN I know that company inside out as a shareholder and customer. I really never wanted to be a shareholder of wynn as you know it was like $240 or maybe $260 a couple years back. I had to become one in the $50-690 range last year it was too cheap, market cap was down to like $4-5B I wanna say. I will tell you this, the WYNN earnings were spectacular imo. They said there are 35 hotels in Macau and the WYNN controlled over 50% of the VIP segment, that says alot about where the big clients like to go.
I was at the WYNN for the super bowl and the week after and the hotel was fairly dead, which is always is everytime I go but I personally think that has more to do with higher table minimums than most places. As a facility steve wynn said on the conference call people are willing to pay more for the place thats the nicest and is upkept in the most impeccable manner. The Wynn/Encore in vegas is just on a different level from everything else and I personally like it bc it keeps the riff raff of say the linq hotel out.
The real story long term is Macau and Japan which legalized casinos recently and will be the 2nd biggest market in the world, Vegas makes up a small part of WYNN numbers. Macau had a huge crackdown on the VIP players a couple years ago and all casinos died. You have Melco Crown,MGM, and Las Vegas Sands aimed at the mass market and Wynn aimed at the high market. Sands pays a sick dividend almost 6% but im not sure how sustainable it is long term if earnings dont pick up bc its payout ratio tops 100%, meanwhile WYNN said he could raise the dividend 50% right now but he's not bc of the projects coming.
At the moment WYNN has substantial debt I wanna say near $10B and their market cap is near $10B, but all the debt is manageable and the stock trades currently at like 10x EBITDA. The reason I think it goes higher is the WYNN palace is the best hotel in cotai area and it just launched 6 months ago and the cc he said its doing $1.6M/day of EBITDA and was the fastest property he's ever seen to the $1M/day mark. Anyways there is that + they're building the first and only boston area casino which should be done in less than 24 months and that will supposedly give off $300-500M in EBITDA which should add $3-5B in market cap or 33% off today.
I was just there like I said and I dont know how well you know the place but if you remember where the Ferrari Dealer/Steve Wynn personal car collection was? Well a mall is going up there called Wynn Plaza set to open late this year, you can read how its 110,000 sq ft mall and they already sold 49% stake to someone for $275M I believe? Anyways Steve said that he turned a space making literally no money into prime retail leasing for $300/ft for a total of $50M and it was a no brainer. He literally invested $50M and got back $275M upfront and will basically make $150/ft now on it and im sure there's a waitlist to lease it. Finally the big one is Wynn Paradise Park. The paradise park is basically another brilliant move by steve where he's taking that massive golf course that does $3-5M/year in EBITDA he said and building another tower + boardwalk + massive water park that he says will do $500M in EBITDA. He says the golf course was a placeholder till he had a brilliant idea.
So all in all wynn paradise park + wynn plaza + wynn boston seems to be adding lets say $1B a year in EBITDA thats double today's EBITDA therefore shareprice should rise substantially assuming Macau has no setbacks but you never know with that communist nation of nation and potential trade wars with china.
I'd say casinos are a long term play on china and its growth story, macau already eclipses vegas by many fold in terms of revenue and that will only grow. LVS i think is safer, but the market cap is $40B+ I dont see the upside of the WYNN at sub $10B. I have both, but a larger stake in Wynn and thats my thesis. After earnings I held hoping we'd break $104 and hold when we didn't I sold at $102.5 and its fallen back quite a bit, hopefully early march macau numbers show continued growth. The stock chartwise has been in purgatory for a long team, it needs $104+ to breakout so id prob add now and then more up there.
I mentioned that the stock was incredibly undervalued and needed to get over $104 to really get running based on the chart. Guess what? Yesterday Morgan Stanley came out with the same thesis I made on my own weeks earlier and gave a reason why WYNN could double
LINK
And guess what happened, WYNN popped from $99 and closed over $104 yesterday and its running today in red tape.....so just like when I pointed everyone to V or PM when they were undervalued after a fall, I mentioned WYNN. It's a 100x safer to invest in a legit co than any of these spec biotech companies you may enjoy.
I guess ill just keep my input to myself, but I nailed it....again and speaking of Tesla is green in all this red tape as well today, that was my other play, another large cap that also ran well in this red tape.
This post was edited on 3/14/17 at 10:47 am
Posted on 3/14/17 at 10:59 am to dabigfella
Looking for a couple of undervalued stocks for my IRA. Can you post if you see something in the future? I have not followed posts too much in the past about stocks but started recently and looking for good companies that are undervalued of investments instead of gambles. Thanks in advance dabigfella.
Posted on 3/14/17 at 11:05 am to dabigfella
quote:
I guess ill just keep my input to myself,
Some of us value your and IG's input...in fact I find it invaluable...thank you sir.
Page 7 of 33
Popular
Back to top
Follow TigerDroppings for LSU Football News