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Started By
Message
We got a week to figure
Posted on 12/11/22 at 9:31 pm
Posted on 12/11/22 at 9:31 pm
this shite out. Trillions in options expire Friday and we’re not far off max pain. A bunch of fluff this week unless I miss my guess and the fun starts next week. Methinks the downside is the play but I have been wrong before. I’m not doing jack**** until I see some cards
3
Posted on 12/12/22 at 5:08 pm to DTRooster
Today’s face rip seems premature, but who knows? Odd to see the VIX climbing as the market rallied through the day. I have a number of short SPX iron condors. The expansion in IV kept the put sides from dropping as much as otherwise would have been the case with a rallying market. And the call sides rallied with the market direction plus the IV expansion. Theta decay didn’t really play into it today, even with these expiring on Friday. Odd scenario.
The option market seems to be treating the Wednesday Fed speak much like an earnings announcement on an equity. A further expansion of IV (no matter the market direction) through Wednesday morning wouldn’t shock me - especially with this being a light week. Expecting more fun & games from the big desk players through triple witching.
The option market seems to be treating the Wednesday Fed speak much like an earnings announcement on an equity. A further expansion of IV (no matter the market direction) through Wednesday morning wouldn’t shock me - especially with this being a light week. Expecting more fun & games from the big desk players through triple witching.
Posted on 12/12/22 at 10:08 pm to Jag_Warrior
Classic dove tail pattern right now with retail going in. Big day tomorrow as calls are smothered and beta rises.
Posted on 12/13/22 at 6:18 am to DTRooster
Well there should be some downside. The markets have climbed since end of Sept. I have been limiting my buying since Sept only buying tech stocks that were beaten down.
If S&P gets back down 3500 or lower level i'll look to start adding to my other stocks.
If S&P gets back down 3500 or lower level i'll look to start adding to my other stocks.
Posted on 12/13/22 at 12:00 pm to Jag_Warrior
quote:
The option market seems to be treating the Wednesday Fed speak much like an earnings announcement on an equity.
I misspoke. The market (by way of the VIX) was treating the CPI report somewhat like an earnings report. The VIX receded once the report was released.
We’ll see how the VIX behaves going into the Fed speak. But as of right now, the expected move for 12/16 options on SPX Triple Witching has moved down dramatically post CPI report.
Posted on 12/13/22 at 1:40 pm to DTRooster
quote:
Trillions in options expire Friday and we’re not far off max pain.
Let them expire.
Posted on 12/13/22 at 4:14 pm to boogiewoogie1978
Not always possible, especially with index options and futures contracts.
End of the quarter, end of the year and triple witching… I may close out my SPX option trades early and watch from the sidelines on Friday. Kinda like the civilians who’d watch Civil War battles from up on a hill.
End of the quarter, end of the year and triple witching… I may close out my SPX option trades early and watch from the sidelines on Friday. Kinda like the civilians who’d watch Civil War battles from up on a hill.
Posted on 12/15/22 at 8:44 am to Jag_Warrior
We’ll looka there, right back to where the week started. Tuesday’s SPY puts just dropped a big knot, I’m done for the year unless some more craziness catches my attention
Posted on 12/15/22 at 8:50 am to DTRooster
Funny how the stock market prices in mistakes.
Oops
Oops
Posted on 12/15/22 at 3:29 pm to DTRooster
Were you long or short SPY puts?
Posted on 12/15/22 at 3:38 pm to Jag_Warrior
I bought them then sold them. Is that long or short?
Posted on 12/15/22 at 8:30 pm to DTRooster
You were long. Sounds like you hit a nice score with that. 
Posted on 12/16/22 at 9:16 am to Jag_Warrior
Yeah it was pretty good but the time I should have been greedy I didn’t, lol. They still cracking it down, damn
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