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Message
2
Posted on 6/18/21 at 11:48 am to Hussss
go time approacheth, one way or another
a lot riding on if growth investors choose to stay long over the weekend
a lot riding on if growth investors choose to stay long over the weekend
Posted on 6/18/21 at 11:51 am to cgrand
I know most think I am a perma bear, but that is not accurate. I only post what I see “under the hood” of the entire market.
ETA: Do I dislike the Fed? Absolutely. They are nothing short of robber barrons. I only want true price discovery / free markets.
ETA: Do I dislike the Fed? Absolutely. They are nothing short of robber barrons. I only want true price discovery / free markets.
This post was edited on 6/18/21 at 11:55 am
Posted on 6/18/21 at 11:57 am to iAmBatman
quote:
agreed
Posted on 6/18/21 at 11:58 am to cgrand
Will the Plunge Protection Team show up the last hour of the day?
Weekly closes matter. A LOT.
Weekly closes matter. A LOT.
Posted on 6/18/21 at 11:59 am to Hussss
quote:
Batman
Because he's the hero Gotham deserves, but not the one it needs right now, so we'll hunt him. Because he can take it, because he's not a hero. He's a silent guardian, a watchful protector, a Dark Knight.
This post was edited on 6/18/21 at 11:59 am
Posted on 6/18/21 at 12:05 pm to Hussss
quote:
Will the Plunge Protection Team show up the last hour of the day?
Weekly closes matter. A LOT.
indeed
what happens this afternoon is critical to many trend lines and patterns. I’m set up well to profit nicely if the white hats ride in
Posted on 6/18/21 at 12:07 pm to cgrand
I honestly do not think the market is ready to just completely give up the ghost just yet.
We will KNOW the Grand Finale blow off top when we see it.
We will KNOW the Grand Finale blow off top when we see it.
Posted on 6/18/21 at 12:11 pm to Hussss
caution will be warranted when the double-top is reached to match feb highs. that’s your danger zone
Posted on 6/18/21 at 12:22 pm to cgrand
What concerns me though: The small caps lead risk appetite signals and they have made a lower high double top and do look to be giving up the ghost.
This post was edited on 6/18/21 at 12:36 pm
Posted on 6/18/21 at 12:43 pm to Hussss
yes I think the small cap frenzy is unwinding.
way too much risk there
I’ll defer to you as to what that indicates for the broader markets.
To me, it indicates healthy fear vs frothy exuberance
way too much risk there
I’ll defer to you as to what that indicates for the broader markets.
To me, it indicates healthy fear vs frothy exuberance
Posted on 6/18/21 at 1:21 pm to cgrand
That’s been my bias now for a while in the put thread. If the market unwinds, you should see it in small cap first, especially speculative small caps without any underlying value floor (i.e. dividends).
This post was edited on 6/18/21 at 1:22 pm
Posted on 6/18/21 at 1:31 pm to Hussss
slippery
Posted on 6/18/21 at 2:28 pm to Hussss
They are fighting hard to keep the S&P above the 50 MA into the close. But pretty much all the other “leading” risk sectors and indexes are flashing the warning that a real correction has finally begun.
Posted on 6/18/21 at 2:39 pm to Lgrnwd
Tops are a process and the following could have easily generated a top across risk assets in a negative feedback loop:
-Meme stocks blow out shorts causing deleveraging
-Cryptos then crash to meet margin calls from all the deleveraging above
-More deleveraging happens due to crypto crash
-More margin calls create meme stocks to rev up again (big money pulling out of shorts)
-Repo market gets strained again
Leverage is dynamite once it starts unwinding. But this sell off does not feel panicky one bit. The swings haven’t been huge and volatility, even though up, has been rather tame (not up 20+%).
Next week will tell us everything
-Meme stocks blow out shorts causing deleveraging
-Cryptos then crash to meet margin calls from all the deleveraging above
-More deleveraging happens due to crypto crash
-More margin calls create meme stocks to rev up again (big money pulling out of shorts)
-Repo market gets strained again
Leverage is dynamite once it starts unwinding. But this sell off does not feel panicky one bit. The swings haven’t been huge and volatility, even though up, has been rather tame (not up 20+%).
Next week will tell us everything
This post was edited on 6/18/21 at 2:42 pm
Posted on 6/18/21 at 3:02 pm to Hussss
quote:
Leverage is dynamite once it starts unwinding. But this sell off does not feel panicky one bit. The swings haven’t been huge and volatility, even though up, has been rather tame (not up 20+%).
completely agree
Posted on 6/18/21 at 3:06 pm to Lgrnwd
quote:
They are fighting hard to keep the S&P above the 50 MA into the close. But pretty much all the other “leading” risk sectors and indexes are flashing the warning that a real correction has finally begun.
I do find it interesting that every time we've had an intraday breach of the 50-day on the S&P going back to last October, the market has either (a) rallied off the intraday lows to close above it or (b) closed above it the next day. Monday should be fun.
Posted on 6/18/21 at 3:14 pm to RedStickBR
quote:
I do find it interesting that every time we've had an intraday breach of the 50-day on the S&P going back to last October, the market has either (a) rallied off the intraday lows to close above it or (b) closed above it the next day. Monday should be fun.
History shows that the next two weeks should struggle. With the recent weaknesses, it may turn into a bloodbath.
However, this is a market different and there is no historical precedent to how it will continue so I'm not sure if there is credence to the past performance here.
Posted on 6/18/21 at 3:16 pm to cgrand
One big push on the S&P up to the 4300’s led by big tech will be the Grand Finale me thinks, next month.
Let’s call it 4383.72 on 7/22/21
Let’s call it 4383.72 on 7/22/21
Posted on 6/18/21 at 3:32 pm to Hussss
quote:
One big push on the S&P up to the 4300’s led by big tech will be the Grand Finale me thinks, next month.
Let’s call it 4383.72 on 7/22/21
I think it's done for. Its dropped like a rock after hours.
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