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re: US Debt Default

Posted on 5/22/23 at 3:56 pm to
Posted by CAPEX
Member since Dec 2022
918 posts
Posted on 5/22/23 at 3:56 pm to
quote:

But no state does this.
No county does this.
No city does this.



Is this satire?

Please.. please tell me this is satire and you're making a reference to municipal bonds/non-sovereign government bonds.

Because states and municipalities and regions absolutely do this all the time.

This post was edited on 5/22/23 at 3:57 pm
Posted by meansonny
ATL
Member since Sep 2012
26045 posts
Posted on 5/22/23 at 7:13 pm to
As far as I know, California is the only state that did not propose a balanced budget for 2023.
And even they have made multiple modifications to the current budget already in an attempt to improve the situation.

I'm not referencing unfunded future pensions.
That is an obvious concern and obvious manipulation of budgets.
Posted by AUlock54
Member since Dec 2016
1523 posts
Posted on 5/23/23 at 8:53 pm to
So if they do default, would it raise CD rates like it would raise borrowing rates? I assume it would be a wash due to inflation though.
Posted by Bard
Definitely NOT an admin
Member since Oct 2008
57977 posts
Posted on 5/24/23 at 7:05 am to
quote:

So if they do default, would it raise CD rates like it would raise borrowing rates? I assume it would be a wash due to inflation though.



It should, yes. The federal government defaulting would lessen the value of US debt thus requiring interest rates to increase in order to keep investors attracted.

Realistically, the federal government doesn't just get money on April 15, there are always tax receipts coming in so there should always be enough money to service the debt (especially if spending is brought down). Remember, this default date is being promoted by Janet "transitory inflation" Yellen.
This post was edited on 5/24/23 at 7:07 am
Posted by dewster
Chicago
Member since Aug 2006
26432 posts
Posted on 5/24/23 at 7:15 am to
I don’t understand why there is zero expectation for Biden or the senate to compromise.

Spending has to be reigned in. We spend way too much. No hike in debt ceiling should happen without doing something to reduce spending in a meaningful way.
Posted by meansonny
ATL
Member since Sep 2012
26045 posts
Posted on 5/24/23 at 7:17 am to
quote:

don’t understand why there is zero expectation for Biden or the senate to compromise.

Because there is zero leverage to compromise.

Spending can get reigned in. But haggling over the debt ceiling isn't the carrot that anyone thinks it is.
Posted by Shepherd88
Member since Dec 2013
4891 posts
Posted on 5/24/23 at 7:24 am to
Actually the last time we were in this situation in 2011 when the S&P downgraded US Debt, yields dropped.
Posted by NC_Tigah
Make Orwell Fiction Again
Member since Sep 2003
135710 posts
Posted on 5/24/23 at 10:04 am to
quote:

Can anyone explain why defaulting would be bad?
If a default increases our debt cost-of-carry, it will be very bad.
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