re: Tuscaloosa Marine Shale

The formation is certainly there. The challenges are rig availability and drill pipe availability. The steelmills are running at max capacity and still have a 6-9 month backlog. Most of the drill pipe and rigs are in North Dakota & Pennsylvania. Also the industry is in the "Great Crewchange"- 30-40% of the workforce, I can't see it taking off like the stuff in Shreveport, Dallas, ND, or Pennsylvania. Ohio's Utica is next in line.

That encana well is the first good data point and is very suspect. You can't trust IPs, especially from public cos. Jury still way out on the tms.

The issue with most of the drilling in TMS right now is that it has not yet become economical yet. It is still new, and many companies are refining their techniques to handle TMS. This is exactly how things started in Haynesville few years ago, so as long as oil prices stay at $100.00 bbl, you will continue to see companies look for liquids in TMS and try to make it economical.

I rode by the Anderson site today. Anderson 17H-1 has been drilled and 18H-1 already has a rig on the pad. They should be drilling soon.

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These two Encana wells should give a good indication on how things will play out in the high resistivity area. I realize it's just a start, but if the results are good, hopefully thing will keep moving forward.

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People get stuck on IP rates, but those can be heavily skewed one way or the other by the operator depending on what information is reported. The real proof on how economic this play is will be in the recoveries in the first 1-2 years of production. Until this information becomes available there is no way to know what the decline curves will look like.

I'm not in the business of drilling, but I've read good things about Hilscorp. They bought BP's interest in Pointe Coupee & West Feliciana. I also read where they sold $3.5 billion of assets in Eagle Ford to Marathon.

I have been following a thread on GoHaynesville and there have suspect members trying to throw cold water on TMS activity just as here on this thread. A gentleman by the name of John Parker has gotten in on the conversation. I have pasted Mr Parker's last post and I believe you landowners will be enlightened by what he has to say!
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Mr. Steve: "what rumored sudden change in drilling plans" does Encana have?
I had a personal conversation with a good friend of mine who is the Chief Landman of a leasing crew that has been up in South West Arkansas for 2 years in the Dense Brown working for SW and that effort is now finished. Per our conversation, he told me Encana had been begging him very hard this week to come on down to Wilkinson and Amite Counties as they want to lease "everything" that is remaining unleased in these counties. (He is not going to because he got a better gig, about 45 miles from his house and after 2 years a long way from home you can understand.)
He is a straight up guy and his conversation with me does not sound to me like there is any problem at all.
What that clearly tells me is "that the sudden change in the drilling plan" must be many more drilling rigs ramping up drilling in these areas. Encana already has in excess of 250,000 acres which is a ton of drilling pads that will keep them busy for many years. Why on earth would they want more ("everything left") unless they are really excited on the results they are seeing thus far.
Furthemore, just look at all of the many new drilling permits Encana has obtained just recently, combined with their last weeks 3 large "forced intergration" petitions the Mississippi O & G Board granted to them. These easily confirmed actions combined with my "hearsay" conversation with a know trusted friend who has been a landman for over 16 years, does not indicate to me their is any problem whatsoever, if fact, just the opposite.
John

Also, another one of Mr Parker's post:

[i]Ladies and Gentlemen:
As Paul Harvey used to say "Now heres the rest of the story" The attached LA DNR Operators Production Report shows that Encana reported 6,268 Barrels of oil produced in November for the Weyerhauser 73 H. Assuming the completion was complete at 1.00 AM in the morning it would be 9 days of production which equates to 696 Barrels Of Oil Per Day or if it was completed late in the evening on the 22nd it would be 8 days of production which would be 784 Barrels Of Oil Per Day.
Please keep in mind that during these first days of production, the oil has to compete with the flowback water to exit the choke. Decembers production numbers should be much higher, assuming Encana doesn't choke back or shut the well down in an effort to suppress higher Lease Bonus and and better Royalty/Lease Terms.
The GoHaynesville site and members are doing an excellent job and informing all involved with critical information regarding these matters. Keep up the Great Work.
Thanks and Good Luck to All
John

GoHaynesville / Tuscaloosa Marine Shale

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I have been following a thread on GoHaynesville and there have suspect members trying to throw cold water on TMS activity just as here on this thread. A gentleman by the name of John Parker has gotten in on the conversation. I have pasted Mr Parker's last post and I believe you landowners will be enlightened by what he has to say!

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That site can be downright comical at times. With that said the first few days of production data from the Encana well seems to be encouraging, but we will have to watch and see how the decline looks after a few months production. I don't think anyone here is "throwing cold water" on the play, but instead noting that it's still very early and outright economic success is not yet a reality. This play looks infinitely better than the Brown Dense play in South Arkansas right now, which might be the biggest lease play I've ever seen with zero wells producing anything of note form the formation.

LINK

Encana's Weyerhaeuser 73H-1, located in St Helena, is confirmed with a flow rate of 786 bopd, while this is not excellent, it is good. This well has a good chance of improving after the frac water is removed and the oil doesn't have to compete with the water. I can not see how Encana is not encouraged, by this IP, this early in the exploration phase. This is the first well in TMS that they have drilled & completed from start to finish.

Leasing in the area is still consistent and there is a push on leases. Encana may change their focus, but it doesn't appear that they are not impressed. I'm sure that they had hoped for better numbers, such as 1000 bopd, but this well still has that potential.
They were a little more ambitious with Anderson 17H-1, so yes, it will tell them a lot when 17 & 18 are completed.
Until those results are available, it's wait and see, so to speak.

IMO, Encana should have funds available to continue exploration, despite the low price of NG. When they got involved in this venture, surely they weren't depending on NG prices to keep the ball rolling. A solid company Encana, most definitively took a look at this project from all possible angles. I think they are here to put forward their best effort. I have heard many times that it will take 25 to 30 wells to get a grasp on the overall picture of TMS. They are not even close to that and just getting started!! There are no dry holes so far in this play, compared to other plays, so I believe they may just adjust their game plan a little. Possibly just slow the pace in order to manage their funds a little better, so they can continue exploration. If they get a few wells with good IP's, that could help them with this project in the long run.
Hopefully they will drill some developmental wells as well.

Light Sweet Crude!! Good stuff!!! I am confident, they will work the kinks out. It's there & they want it. It's just going to take time before they can turn the corner.