- My Forums
- Tiger Rant
- LSU Recruiting
- SEC Rant
- Saints Talk
- Pelicans Talk
- More Sports Board
- Coaching Changes
- Fantasy Sports
- Golf Board
- Soccer Board
- O-T Lounge
- Tech Board
- Home/Garden Board
- Outdoor Board
- Health/Fitness Board
- Movie/TV Board
- Book Board
- Music Board
- Political Talk
- Money Talk
- Fark Board
- Gaming Board
- Travel Board
- Food/Drink Board
- Ticket Exchange
- TD Help Board
Customize My Forums- View All Forums
- Show Left Links
- Topic Sort Options
- Trending Topics
- Recent Topics
- Active Topics
Started By
Message
re: There are some major issues lurking in the US financial markets
Posted on 12/26/18 at 7:28 pm to Doc Fenton
Posted on 12/26/18 at 7:28 pm to Doc Fenton
quote:What would cause an economic collapse like that?
my investment thesis for 2019 and the S&P 500 dropping into the 1000 - 1500 range remains firmly intact.
You would likely be talking about double digit unemployment, massive number of bankruptcies, a significant number of S&P 500 companies either reducing or eliminating their dividends and possibly systemic banks failing.
Those things don’t happen just because there’s an economic slowdown or even a recession.
So, what would cause it to happen?
0
Posted on 12/26/18 at 8:06 pm to Doc Fenton
quote:
where it never gets as low as 1500
Once we broke out from that SPX 1576 high in 2007 we never backtested it so I agree that there is a chance we test it successfully and never make it to 1500 but I only give this about a 20% chance that 1576 would hold.
My reason for lows in the 1300’s is simply the huge breakout there off the ‘09 bottom. 80% by my numbers we retest that.
This post was edited on 12/26/18 at 8:08 pm
Posted on 12/26/18 at 8:51 pm to Hussss
Again, you and Doc are talking financial collapse, not bear market or recession.
Can we get any reasoning behind that besides “my numbers show....”
Can we get any reasoning behind that besides “my numbers show....”
Posted on 12/26/18 at 9:00 pm to Thib-a-doe Tiger
You will know it is really time to run for the hills when:
The Fed stops raising fed funds and markets keep dropping.
Then the Fed actually cuts rates and the market keeps dropping.
The Fed stops raising fed funds and markets keep dropping.
Then the Fed actually cuts rates and the market keeps dropping.
Posted on 12/26/18 at 9:01 pm to Hussss
quote:
You will know it is really time to run for the hills when:
The Fed stops raising fed funds and markets keep dropping.
Then the Fed actually cuts rates and the market keeps dropping.
So speculation. Got it
Posted on 12/26/18 at 9:04 pm to Thib-a-doe Tiger
Isn't it ALL at this point? I mean so much misallocated capital with rates at zero and real rates being negative.
I was REALLY hoping for us to get a nice sustainable rally that will last a month or so but with financials lagging today, I can't see it.
I was REALLY hoping for us to get a nice sustainable rally that will last a month or so but with financials lagging today, I can't see it.
This post was edited on 12/26/18 at 9:10 pm
Posted on 12/26/18 at 9:06 pm to Hussss
Posted on 12/26/18 at 9:14 pm to Thib-a-doe Tiger
quote:
"my numbers show"
Just a formula I use in my technical analysis
Posted on 12/26/18 at 9:19 pm to Hussss
quote:
I was REALLY hoping for us to get a nice sustainable rally that will last a month or so but with financials lagging today, I can't see it.
The Nikkei is up 4%. They must be seeing something you don’t
Posted on 12/26/18 at 9:20 pm to Thib-a-doe Tiger
Wow, a MONTH has passed?!?! 
You guys really have no idea how fun this is
You guys really have no idea how fun this is
This post was edited on 12/26/18 at 9:46 pm
Posted on 12/26/18 at 9:23 pm to Hussss
quote:
Just a formula I use in my technical analysis
Is that the Rothschild formula?
Posted on 12/26/18 at 9:24 pm to Hussss
Seems like they would look into your lagging financials, no?
Posted on 12/26/18 at 9:25 pm to Thib-a-doe Tiger
If "my numbers" don't work in the contest it will be like a ban bet if I don't place in the Top 5. Guaranteed
Posted on 12/26/18 at 9:27 pm to Hussss
So we have to deal with this for another year? frick
Posted on 12/26/18 at 9:42 pm to Hussss
quote:
but with financials lagging today, I can't see it.
I don’t know what metric you are using for financials but XLF, JPM, BAC and even GS all we’re equal to or better than the SP500 today.
The upcoming earning reports are going to be real interesting.
Posted on 12/26/18 at 9:44 pm to CajunTiger92
Was using XLF which lagged the indexes
Posted on 12/26/18 at 9:54 pm to Hussss
I guess on a day like today I consider a few tenths of a percent pretty much equal and not lagging.
Posted on 12/26/18 at 10:03 pm to CajunTiger92
Fair enough.
I would have liked to have seen them OUTperform since they started taking their medicine before other sectors so it would have been nice to see them LEAD today giving clarity that we are coming out of the woods somewhat.
What people on this board FAIL to REALIZE about me is that I honestly hate seeing innocent people get hurt in market carnage and I am a big believer in charitable contributions.
I would have liked to have seen them OUTperform since they started taking their medicine before other sectors so it would have been nice to see them LEAD today giving clarity that we are coming out of the woods somewhat.
What people on this board FAIL to REALIZE about me is that I honestly hate seeing innocent people get hurt in market carnage and I am a big believer in charitable contributions.
Posted on 12/26/18 at 10:16 pm to Hussss
I would have like to see them lead as well but I’ll take it however it comes. The bulls have a ways to go to repair the damage but I’m still in that camp. Something is weird with this market though, no doubt about that.
Posted on 12/26/18 at 10:20 pm to CajunTiger92
quote:
Something is weird with this market
Is it "different this time?"
Page 15 of 45
Back to top
Follow TigerDroppings for LSU Football News