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Tell me if this is a good investment (CNG tanks)

Posted on 5/16/11 at 2:19 pm
Posted by NaturalBeam
Member since Sep 2007
14521 posts
Posted on 5/16/11 at 2:19 pm
Let's say I get a new vehicle in the somewhat-near future:

A CNG tank would cost me $11,000.

I would get a 50% tax credit the next tax season.

I currently spend about $80/week on gas, and natural gas is consistently between 40-50% of the cost of gasoline. Also, there is a gas station with CNG pumps very close to my workplace, so it wouldn't be inconvenient to fill up.

Let's conservatively say that NG is 50% of gasoline, so I will save $40/week.

I would break even after 2 years, 9 months (($5500 tax credit + ($40/wk X 137.5 weeks) = 2 yrs, 9 mos)).

After that, I would begin saving $2080/yr, or an 18.9% return on my initial investment of $11,000.

What am I missing?? - Obviously, if gas prices go down, my savings per week will go down. Is there anything else I'm not thinking about?
Posted by wegotdatwood
Member since Aug 2009
17094 posts
Posted on 5/16/11 at 2:22 pm to
What is a cng tank?
Posted by TheHiddenFlask
The Welsh red light district
Member since Jul 2008
18384 posts
Posted on 5/16/11 at 2:34 pm to
quote:

What am I missing?? - Obviously, if gas prices go down, my savings per week will go down. Is there anything else I'm not thinking about?


If you find a way to hedge the risk associate with an increase in Nat Gas, then it's a good deal, assuming you have done all the research correctly.

The biggest risk is a price spike making your investment tank. You can probably just offset it by buying into something on the market, or if you have the ability, going into the futures market (probably too complicated for most.

How did you calculate "the cost of Natural Gas"? You need to do it on a per mile ratio, IMO.
Posted by TigerDeBaiter
Member since Dec 2010
10257 posts
Posted on 5/16/11 at 2:45 pm to
What's the increase in insurance going to be? Any?
Posted by NaturalBeam
Member since Sep 2007
14521 posts
Posted on 5/16/11 at 2:46 pm to
quote:

The biggest risk is a price spike making your investment tank
Yeah, my understanding is the the price of gas and NG tend to move together, so my "profit margin" would somewhat remain intact either way (to a limited extent), but obviously there is some uncertainty there which could easily make the investment less (or more) worthwhile.

quote:

You need to do it on a per mile ratio, IMO.
Good point - I haven't done this much research on it yet. Again, my rough understanding is that both get about the same mpg, but I would need to recalculate with exact figures.
Posted by NaturalBeam
Member since Sep 2007
14521 posts
Posted on 5/16/11 at 2:48 pm to
quote:

What's the increase in insurance going to be? Any?
Pretty sure not, but definitely something to inquire about.
Posted by addistiger
Baton Rouge, LA
Member since Oct 2008
52 posts
Posted on 5/16/11 at 3:27 pm to
Would the conversion of a CNG tank void your warranty?
Posted by Me4Heisman
Landmass
Member since Aug 2004
5509 posts
Posted on 5/16/11 at 8:45 pm to
You wont have to worry about a spike in nat gas prices anytime soon
Posted by TheHiddenFlask
The Welsh red light district
Member since Jul 2008
18384 posts
Posted on 5/16/11 at 9:07 pm to
Yeah. Cause commodities that are really hard to store and take a long time to increase production on are usually really stable, right?

Posted by Me4Heisman
Landmass
Member since Aug 2004
5509 posts
Posted on 5/16/11 at 10:54 pm to
The oversupply of nat gas makes storage considerations a nonissue right now
This post was edited on 5/16/11 at 10:55 pm
Posted by TheHiddenFlask
The Welsh red light district
Member since Jul 2008
18384 posts
Posted on 5/16/11 at 11:31 pm to
I don't actually disagree with your original sentiment, but Nat Gas is incredibly volatile in it's nature.

Not meant as an attack, but are you selling calls on nat gas futures right now?

If not, why?
Posted by wickowick
Head of Island
Member since Dec 2006
45797 posts
Posted on 5/17/11 at 1:21 am to
Will you be able to get gas if you travel?
Posted by Me4Heisman
Landmass
Member since Aug 2004
5509 posts
Posted on 5/17/11 at 6:27 am to
I work in the industry - upstream
Posted by GumboPot
Member since Mar 2009
118683 posts
Posted on 5/17/11 at 7:15 am to
quote:

The oversupply of nat gas makes storage considerations a nonissue right now


So you're saying that current production is having difficulty finding a market?

It used to be in the NG market that storage was not necessarily the issue. The issue was getting the NG from storage to market in a timely manner. The bottleneck was due to the lack of pipeline and compression infrastructure during peak demand (i.e, usually cold winter days and/or hot summer days). Essentially what you're saying is that the pipelines and storage is full and the producers can ramp up production on peak demand?

If so, I can generally see hydraulically how the addition of more producers (and I'm thinking of the TX, OK, LA, AK, MS, and AL areas) has alleviated some of the the storage withdrawal bottlenecks thus shaving off some of the price spikes that we have seen in the past during peak demand.
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