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re: stock tip...FSLY

Posted on 2/14/21 at 11:19 am to
Posted by spaced45
South Carolina
Member since Feb 2021
10 posts
Posted on 2/14/21 at 11:19 am to
quote:

Slippery. Wild mood swings.

I'll second that. I've been staring at this chart all morning and I can't seem to make up my mind. It gapped down on last two earnings only to come right back up. Choppy but like you said wild mood swings. The return on those swings make it very attractive. That mid 90s range might be the sweet spot. Will be interesting to see what it does leading up to earning.
CHART
Posted by cgrand
HAMMOND
Member since Oct 2009
47074 posts
Posted on 2/14/21 at 11:30 am to
I *think* the relative pessimism out there about their 4Q earnings is a matter of fool me once/fool me twice thinking. It’s easier to be skeptical when there are bag holders vs when everyone bought in the 20,s and 30,s. the violent runs up and crashes down are symptomatic of a small company (FSLY is still tiny) and momentum trading.

also FSLYs services while state of the art are expensive and their competitors are fierce. Either compute@edge and secure@edge will be worth the expense or they won’t. We are about to find out a part of that answer
Posted by bass
Member since Oct 2016
4769 posts
Posted on 2/14/21 at 1:26 pm to
quote:

Activity has "increased dramatically" in the first quarter of 2020 compared with 2019, according to data analyzed by Cerulli Associates. TD Ameritrade reports that visits to its website giving instructions on trading stocks have nearly quadrupled since January.

This quote was taken from an article in Sept 2020. If we have 4,5,6 fold the investors we had last year, I have a theory there’s a much higher chance of stocks that have exploded since the pandemic to continue to do so because of perception of success these stocks have with the new audience.

What hurts this case is the dramatic drop-off after the run up of stocks like GME because it’s likely the first taste the new crowd of investors have of a stock falling off a cliff.

FSLY is in an interesting position, it’s expected to post a small loss but could see a wild swing higher if it actually posts a profit.
This post was edited on 2/15/21 at 7:54 am
Posted by cgrand
HAMMOND
Member since Oct 2009
47074 posts
Posted on 2/14/21 at 5:02 pm to
here’s the downlow

$FSLY Earnings this week.

Estimates
* Rev: $81.8M
* EPS: -$0.11

Next Q:
* Rev: $84.6M
* EPS: -$0.09

FY '21:
* Rev: $379M
Posted by thejudge
Westlake, LA
Member since Sep 2009
15122 posts
Posted on 2/14/21 at 5:40 pm to
quote:

FSLY is in an interesting position, it’s expected to post a small loss but could see a wild swing higher if it actually posts a profit.


I think it will show a small loss but in the long run it'll be a good one.
Posted by FLObserver
Jacksonville
Member since Nov 2005
15890 posts
Posted on 2/14/21 at 8:04 pm to
didnt they already lower expectations from the last earnings? Not good if they miss on already lowered expectations. I own this but wonder what happens if they miss again? Does this give another opportunity long-term? or does it mean that this company cant meet expectations?
Posted by cgrand
HAMMOND
Member since Oct 2009
47074 posts
Posted on 2/16/21 at 8:30 am to
all eyes on FSLY today and tomorrow
Posted by cgrand
HAMMOND
Member since Oct 2009
47074 posts
Posted on 2/16/21 at 9:16 am to
lost 100...NET is down also.
high volume

selling before earnings and you can’t really blame them.
I’m riding tight
This post was edited on 2/16/21 at 9:18 am
Posted by cgrand
HAMMOND
Member since Oct 2009
47074 posts
Posted on 2/16/21 at 9:53 am to
two positiives here if you are bullish

selling into earnings is what “normal” stocks do.
lowered expectations set this up for a more positive earnings report reaction

remember, higher highs are nice but higher lows are more indicative of future growth
Posted by thejudge
Westlake, LA
Member since Sep 2009
15122 posts
Posted on 2/16/21 at 10:14 am to
I agree. Pulled half my position this morning first thing. Will put back after earnings
Posted by FLObserver
Jacksonville
Member since Nov 2005
15890 posts
Posted on 2/16/21 at 10:28 am to
So im going to ask a beginner question. say i own 100 shares of fsly at 90 @ share and have been adding a few shares here and there the last purchase being 20 shares of fsly at 115.00 if i sell half of my shares when fastly is @ 100 . Technically i've made a profit but what happens if fsly spikes to 115 after earnings and i want to buy back now im in a wash sale territory correct? Do i have to wait 30 days to repurchase shares so no wash sale?
Posted by PillPusher
Gulf Coast
Member since Oct 2009
5926 posts
Posted on 2/16/21 at 10:30 am to
Depends on what lot you sale. Generally first in first out. So those would be for a profit and not be associated with a wash sale.
Posted by cgrand
HAMMOND
Member since Oct 2009
47074 posts
Posted on 2/17/21 at 2:12 pm to
AKAM & NET both green on this red day.
i have no idea what if anything that means re FSLY, just an observation

the more i think about it the more i think this report will be in-line with 3Q guidance (ie: loss of tiktok, add of signal science) and they will temper upside guidance for the rest of 2021 due to uncertainty with COVID (remember some of their largest customers are airlines, cruises, ticketing, etc)

Posted by LSUtoOmaha
Nashville
Member since Apr 2004
26725 posts
Posted on 2/17/21 at 2:15 pm to
Tempted to sell some otm puts on fsly. Don’t mind adding to my long
Posted by AA7
Birmingham, AL
Member since Nov 2009
28447 posts
Posted on 2/17/21 at 3:06 pm to
Lift off
Posted by DawgCountry
Great State of GA
Member since Sep 2012
32664 posts
Posted on 2/17/21 at 3:06 pm to
OH WE RIDING NOW BAWS
Posted by deaconjones35
Thibodaux
Member since Sep 2009
9890 posts
Posted on 2/17/21 at 3:07 pm to
YESSIR.......
Posted by cgrand
HAMMOND
Member since Oct 2009
47074 posts
Posted on 2/17/21 at 3:07 pm to
lets see what happens, usually theres a run then a fall
Posted by AA7
Birmingham, AL
Member since Nov 2009
28447 posts
Posted on 2/17/21 at 3:08 pm to
Yeah looks like a lot of profit taking on that run
Posted by DawgCountry
Great State of GA
Member since Sep 2012
32664 posts
Posted on 2/17/21 at 3:10 pm to
yeah that was quick
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