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Message
re: Research Thread- Space Edition
Posted on 9/29/21 at 8:22 pm to bayoubengals88
Posted on 9/29/21 at 8:22 pm to bayoubengals88
S-1 is the prospectus filed post deSPAC that has the shares, unit holders, etc. It's the document that these short squeeze chasers look at to see how "tight" the float is going to be.
Warrants are like extremely long dated options, usually 5-10 years to expiration. They give you the right to buy company stock above a certain price, usually $11.50 per share, until the expiration date. Usually if the share price goes above $18.50 for 20 out of 30 trading days, then the company can call in the warrants and force you to exercise them (that's why I am heavily in warrants in my tax advantaged accounts as owning them in your brokerage account can result in a forced short term cap gain). They can be "good" if you are extremely convinced that the stock price is going up in price and want a levered play compared to owning commons, similar to options. Biotech warrants trade at a very high premium as folks assume that there will be a huge spike that will send the shares way above $18.50 if the company "hits." But the downside of warrants is you can lose everything if the company price doesn't go up over time, while with commons you have much more protected downside.
RDW does not have debt and has a boatload of cash that is about to be deployed in M&A deals actually.
Warrants are like extremely long dated options, usually 5-10 years to expiration. They give you the right to buy company stock above a certain price, usually $11.50 per share, until the expiration date. Usually if the share price goes above $18.50 for 20 out of 30 trading days, then the company can call in the warrants and force you to exercise them (that's why I am heavily in warrants in my tax advantaged accounts as owning them in your brokerage account can result in a forced short term cap gain). They can be "good" if you are extremely convinced that the stock price is going up in price and want a levered play compared to owning commons, similar to options. Biotech warrants trade at a very high premium as folks assume that there will be a huge spike that will send the shares way above $18.50 if the company "hits." But the downside of warrants is you can lose everything if the company price doesn't go up over time, while with commons you have much more protected downside.
RDW does not have debt and has a boatload of cash that is about to be deployed in M&A deals actually.
This post was edited on 9/29/21 at 8:26 pm
Posted on 9/29/21 at 8:28 pm to GeneralLee
Thanks. I messed up not listening to you on SLI originally. I will not make the same mistake twice!
I've got several pharmas, but I like SLI, RDW, and might buy a few ASTS.
I just can't believe how "under the radar" RDW is right now.
I've got several pharmas, but I like SLI, RDW, and might buy a few ASTS.
I just can't believe how "under the radar" RDW is right now.
Posted on 9/29/21 at 8:42 pm to bayoubengals88
Smackover and others deserve all the credit for bringing SLI to the board, I'm just along for the ride there!
Check out NVVE as well. It has a similarly low crazy multiple like RDW. It has a lower multiple than capex heavy charging station companies. Unreal. My positions in size:
Absolutely massive stack- #1- SLI (by far)
Medium sized stack, roughly tied for #2 spot- NVVE/RDW/ORGN
Small sized stack, but enough to be life changing if they hit: ASTS & HUMA
Check out NVVE as well. It has a similarly low crazy multiple like RDW. It has a lower multiple than capex heavy charging station companies. Unreal. My positions in size:
Absolutely massive stack- #1- SLI (by far)
Medium sized stack, roughly tied for #2 spot- NVVE/RDW/ORGN
Small sized stack, but enough to be life changing if they hit: ASTS & HUMA
This post was edited on 9/29/21 at 8:47 pm
Posted on 9/29/21 at 9:09 pm to GeneralLee
Thanks for the breakdown. Have you had any big hits in the past that have allowed you to reinvest in all of this new tech? (If you don’t mind saying)
Posted on 9/29/21 at 9:20 pm to bayoubengals88
Redeployed profits out of TELL, MVIS, TSNP, ZOM, FSLY, ROKU, TDOC,TSLA, SPIR, and AMZN into these plays.
Posted on 9/30/21 at 12:19 pm to GeneralLee
In with 25 shares at 9.75
This thing should be a known commidity after next ER.
This thing should be a known commidity after next ER.
Posted on 9/30/21 at 12:32 pm to bayoubengals88
quote:
In with 25 shares at 9.75
Just picked up some RDW shares as well. The Jax facility is literally 10 mins from my house. Wonder if they give tours
Posted on 9/30/21 at 7:57 pm to FLObserver
I feel like RDW and ORGN are gonna be the main spots I move my SLI profits in the next 6-12 months. RDW might dip another 15-20% in those post despac nonsense, but long term I have no doubts it's $30-40+ by 2023.
This post was edited on 9/30/21 at 8:04 pm
Posted on 9/30/21 at 9:50 pm to GeneralLee
quote:Could you see it being a 20 billion dollar company? $330/share?
RDW might dip another 15-20% in those post despac nonsense, but long term I have no doubts it's $30-40+ by 2023.
10-15 years from now…
Posted on 10/1/21 at 5:31 am to bayoubengals88
If SpaceX’s Starship “works” and we can 100X our current annual payloads into orbit at a small fraction of the current cost per launch, yes I think that level of price appreciation is possible. The financial market does not even begin to comprehend how big a game changer that will be.
Posted on 10/2/21 at 5:40 pm to GeneralLee
Just bought SPIR and BlackSky on a dip. I’m bullish on these but what are others thinking? BlackSky is integrating with Palantir.
Posted on 10/2/21 at 5:59 pm to Drizzt
The EV/sales multiples on both of those is pretty crazy high. I like SPIR better than Blacksky though.
Posted on 10/2/21 at 6:14 pm to GeneralLee
Thanks. Yeah they seemed high a month ago so I set a limit order at a lower price that just hit Friday. Just dipping my toe in for now. I’ll see if it goes lower and think about picking up more. I pretty much take a hard look at anything Peter Thiel is in like BlackSky.
Posted on 10/7/21 at 10:16 am to Drizzt
I went HAM on RDW yesterday in the high $8's, it's recovering nicely today. It's now my #2 position behind SLI. Literally threw every spare cent of cash I had at it yesterday to increase my position a lot.
Posted on 10/12/21 at 2:18 pm to GeneralLee
quote:
RDW
Nice pop today. I also made my starter position in the mid 8's. 11% pop and barely one million shares traded...real volume will send this one.
Posted on 10/12/21 at 7:21 pm to Turftoe
quote:Good news with quite the pop followed by an equally impressive sell off!
Turftoe
I gotta say, as someone who plans to buy more on Friday, I like to see a fade on good news.
I think people are concerned about PIPE, but shouldn't be. Will probably add SLI and RDW on Friday.
Posted on 10/13/21 at 2:25 pm to bayoubengals88
frick me with my 75 little shares! At least I added most this morning! RDW
Posted on 10/13/21 at 5:23 pm to bayoubengals88
I sold most of my RDW warrants on this pump, it looks to be fueled by a Twitter rumor so I’m a bit cautious. Will reload warrants again if they dip.
Posted on 10/13/21 at 6:01 pm to GeneralLee
Hell of a rumor for that kind of volume in this previously unknown stock.
Posted on 10/13/21 at 6:06 pm to bayoubengals88
I just don’t understand why Amazon would do a partnership with them at this stage, except for maybe their Kuiper Constellation project. I’m just a bit wary that they may have to come out and deny the rumor and then the bottom falls out. The Stocktwits board there is invaded by pumpers/flipppers today. Usually when you see that happen it’s a sign to sell not but. Still a bull here long term but I think it’s overextended right now and expect commons to be sub $10 and warrants sub $2.75 by sometime next week.
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