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re: Research Thread- Space Edition

Posted on 9/29/21 at 8:22 pm to
Posted by GeneralLee
Member since Aug 2004
13945 posts
Posted on 9/29/21 at 8:22 pm to
S-1 is the prospectus filed post deSPAC that has the shares, unit holders, etc. It's the document that these short squeeze chasers look at to see how "tight" the float is going to be.

Warrants are like extremely long dated options, usually 5-10 years to expiration. They give you the right to buy company stock above a certain price, usually $11.50 per share, until the expiration date. Usually if the share price goes above $18.50 for 20 out of 30 trading days, then the company can call in the warrants and force you to exercise them (that's why I am heavily in warrants in my tax advantaged accounts as owning them in your brokerage account can result in a forced short term cap gain). They can be "good" if you are extremely convinced that the stock price is going up in price and want a levered play compared to owning commons, similar to options. Biotech warrants trade at a very high premium as folks assume that there will be a huge spike that will send the shares way above $18.50 if the company "hits." But the downside of warrants is you can lose everything if the company price doesn't go up over time, while with commons you have much more protected downside.

RDW does not have debt and has a boatload of cash that is about to be deployed in M&A deals actually.
This post was edited on 9/29/21 at 8:26 pm
Posted by bayoubengals88
LA
Member since Sep 2007
23479 posts
Posted on 9/29/21 at 8:28 pm to
Thanks. I messed up not listening to you on SLI originally. I will not make the same mistake twice!
I've got several pharmas, but I like SLI, RDW, and might buy a few ASTS.

I just can't believe how "under the radar" RDW is right now.
Posted by GeneralLee
Member since Aug 2004
13945 posts
Posted on 9/29/21 at 8:42 pm to
Smackover and others deserve all the credit for bringing SLI to the board, I'm just along for the ride there!

Check out NVVE as well. It has a similarly low crazy multiple like RDW. It has a lower multiple than capex heavy charging station companies. Unreal. My positions in size:
Absolutely massive stack- #1- SLI (by far)
Medium sized stack, roughly tied for #2 spot- NVVE/RDW/ORGN
Small sized stack, but enough to be life changing if they hit: ASTS & HUMA
This post was edited on 9/29/21 at 8:47 pm
Posted by bayoubengals88
LA
Member since Sep 2007
23479 posts
Posted on 9/29/21 at 9:09 pm to
Thanks for the breakdown. Have you had any big hits in the past that have allowed you to reinvest in all of this new tech? (If you don’t mind saying)
Posted by GeneralLee
Member since Aug 2004
13945 posts
Posted on 9/29/21 at 9:20 pm to
Redeployed profits out of TELL, MVIS, TSNP, ZOM, FSLY, ROKU, TDOC,TSLA, SPIR, and AMZN into these plays.
Posted by bayoubengals88
LA
Member since Sep 2007
23479 posts
Posted on 9/30/21 at 12:19 pm to
In with 25 shares at 9.75

This thing should be a known commidity after next ER.
Posted by FLObserver
Jacksonville
Member since Nov 2005
15749 posts
Posted on 9/30/21 at 12:32 pm to
quote:

In with 25 shares at 9.75


Just picked up some RDW shares as well. The Jax facility is literally 10 mins from my house. Wonder if they give tours
Posted by GeneralLee
Member since Aug 2004
13945 posts
Posted on 9/30/21 at 7:57 pm to
I feel like RDW and ORGN are gonna be the main spots I move my SLI profits in the next 6-12 months. RDW might dip another 15-20% in those post despac nonsense, but long term I have no doubts it's $30-40+ by 2023.
This post was edited on 9/30/21 at 8:04 pm
Posted by bayoubengals88
LA
Member since Sep 2007
23479 posts
Posted on 9/30/21 at 9:50 pm to
quote:

RDW might dip another 15-20% in those post despac nonsense, but long term I have no doubts it's $30-40+ by 2023.
Could you see it being a 20 billion dollar company? $330/share?
10-15 years from now…
Posted by GeneralLee
Member since Aug 2004
13945 posts
Posted on 10/1/21 at 5:31 am to
If SpaceX’s Starship “works” and we can 100X our current annual payloads into orbit at a small fraction of the current cost per launch, yes I think that level of price appreciation is possible. The financial market does not even begin to comprehend how big a game changer that will be.
Posted by Drizzt
Cimmeria
Member since Aug 2013
14881 posts
Posted on 10/2/21 at 5:40 pm to
Just bought SPIR and BlackSky on a dip. I’m bullish on these but what are others thinking? BlackSky is integrating with Palantir.
Posted by GeneralLee
Member since Aug 2004
13945 posts
Posted on 10/2/21 at 5:59 pm to
The EV/sales multiples on both of those is pretty crazy high. I like SPIR better than Blacksky though.
Posted by Drizzt
Cimmeria
Member since Aug 2013
14881 posts
Posted on 10/2/21 at 6:14 pm to
Thanks. Yeah they seemed high a month ago so I set a limit order at a lower price that just hit Friday. Just dipping my toe in for now. I’ll see if it goes lower and think about picking up more. I pretty much take a hard look at anything Peter Thiel is in like BlackSky.
Posted by GeneralLee
Member since Aug 2004
13945 posts
Posted on 10/7/21 at 10:16 am to
I went HAM on RDW yesterday in the high $8's, it's recovering nicely today. It's now my #2 position behind SLI. Literally threw every spare cent of cash I had at it yesterday to increase my position a lot.
Posted by Turftoe
Denver
Member since Mar 2016
4337 posts
Posted on 10/12/21 at 2:18 pm to
quote:

RDW


Nice pop today. I also made my starter position in the mid 8's. 11% pop and barely one million shares traded...real volume will send this one.
Posted by bayoubengals88
LA
Member since Sep 2007
23479 posts
Posted on 10/12/21 at 7:21 pm to
quote:

Turftoe
Good news with quite the pop followed by an equally impressive sell off!

I gotta say, as someone who plans to buy more on Friday, I like to see a fade on good news.

I think people are concerned about PIPE, but shouldn't be. Will probably add SLI and RDW on Friday.
Posted by bayoubengals88
LA
Member since Sep 2007
23479 posts
Posted on 10/13/21 at 2:25 pm to
frick me with my 75 little shares! At least I added most this morning! RDW
Posted by GeneralLee
Member since Aug 2004
13945 posts
Posted on 10/13/21 at 5:23 pm to
I sold most of my RDW warrants on this pump, it looks to be fueled by a Twitter rumor so I’m a bit cautious. Will reload warrants again if they dip.
Posted by bayoubengals88
LA
Member since Sep 2007
23479 posts
Posted on 10/13/21 at 6:01 pm to
Hell of a rumor for that kind of volume in this previously unknown stock.
Posted by GeneralLee
Member since Aug 2004
13945 posts
Posted on 10/13/21 at 6:06 pm to
I just don’t understand why Amazon would do a partnership with them at this stage, except for maybe their Kuiper Constellation project. I’m just a bit wary that they may have to come out and deny the rumor and then the bottom falls out. The Stocktwits board there is invaded by pumpers/flipppers today. Usually when you see that happen it’s a sign to sell not but. Still a bull here long term but I think it’s overextended right now and expect commons to be sub $10 and warrants sub $2.75 by sometime next week.
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